Thread: Что произойдет в восточной Украине? (Eastern Ukraine?)

Originally Posted by Ramil

Ну, в какой-то мере я согласен, что по "морде лица" можно судить о человеке... но всё-таки какой-то это несерьёзный аргумент. Тут можно привести так же честное лицо мэра Харькова или доброе и. о. президента Украины.

А всё-таки физиогномику никто не отменял. Тебе, например, всё равно с кем из этих двух иметь дело? Это первое.

Второе. (Я уже начал говорить почти как Путин. Вот до чего доводит чтение стенограмм. )

Дела, дела, дела. Погромы цыган, преследования инакомыслящих, ограничения на журналистов, мутная история с предыдущим мэром и т.п.

Какая-то тёмная лавочка, короче. Если бы он, хотя бы назвался "народным комендантом" и руководил боями с оружием наперевес, я бы это понял. А, допустим, зачистка города от наркотиков и задержание журналистов абсолютно не входит в его полномочия. Чалый такими вещами не баловался.

Смею предположить, что "зелёным" абсолютно до фени, кому передавать захваченные ими объекты. Назвался самообороной - вот тебе здание, дорогой. Дальше - сам.

It's kind of interesting how they are proclaiming "people's republics" and "people's mayors".
It echoes a bit of you-know-what, doesn't it?

I can't help admiring the guts of people to pull something like this off. The revolution in Kiev too, even if they got help from abroad.
If people in Western Europe got seriously oppressed, nobody would quite know what to do, and probably end up doing nothing or just rallying around on the street and getting shot at with water cannons and dum-dum bullets, or getting arrested.

But lots of people in the ex USSR have the ideology down, don't they - and they know the recipe to raise up, get organised and do something. Many of them are risking everything. It's brave.

Frankly we could learn a lot... It's probably a matter of time until most Western European countries are nothing but a parody of democracy. How many revolutions have Ukrainians been through in their lifetimes by now...

Any way I hope it doesn't turn into some kind of nasty "dictatorship of the pro.... Russians".
They need to find out the truth about what happened to Rybak and the others, quickly.

Originally Posted by Hanna

...But lots of people in the ex USSR have the ideology down, don't they - and they know the recipe to raise up, get organised and do something. Many of them are risking everything. It's brave.....

agreed, but they are by no means the only ones; others were brave, raised up and risked everything too; eg Tunesia, Egypt, Lybia, Syria, Rwanda, DRC Congo, Srilanka, even in Europe eg Serbia-Croatia-Bosnia Herzigovina = though some of them with horrendous consequences

Originally Posted by eisenherz

agreed, but they are by no means the only ones; others were brave, raised up and risked everything too; eg Tunesia, Egypt, Lybia, Syria, Rwanda, DRC Congo, Srilanka, even in Europe eg Serbia-Croatia-Bosnia Herzigovina = though some of them with horrendous consequences

Yes, but the Arab springs backfired didn't they? None of these countries are actually better off. But Crimea probably will be....
And I DO think that most of what happens in Eastern Ukraine is organised by locals.

Like I said, they have the ideology, they've done military service and some are even war veterans. I don't think they NEED Russia to take over some buildings and come up with a manifesto. The question is whether they chose to get Russia involved, or not, and whether Russia has reached out to them, or not.

it-Ogo is talking about having actually seen and heard people there who he think are Russians and not Ukrainians. It's certainly not an unfeasible idea.

If the rumours that Blackwater (Akademi) are there pushing US interests,is true, then I think Russia would just kneejerk send some elite command or something out of sheer territorialism. I think we have to listen carefully to it-Ogo, at the end of the day he's the only person who is actually there, and we know him since many years as an intelligent person who keeps a rational perspective.

On the other hand, I for one overcompensate the onslaught of propaganda in Western media by putting (perhaps) too much trust in Russian media, like RT, which I happen to like, and Vesti, where I am too focussed on understanding what they are saying to think critically about the content.

Many involved in the uprising appear to be administrators, managers etc. I think they have the guts, know-how and experience locally. And frankly it's quite cool.
But that doesn't mean that Moscow doesn't have some kind of link to them.

Originally Posted by Crocodile

Unfortunately, you can only find that info on Yle's website or RT and the Voice of Russia. The other Western media do not seem interested in distributing that information. I guess, they don't think it's important info for the public. Indeed, some Chief of Intelligence of EU said something about the missing proof.. who cares? Who needs the military intelligence anyway?

I'll read it for sure. Didn't know YLE has news in Russian but that's nice to hear. I read them sometimes, and it's state TV in Finland. They are usually quite balanced in how they report on Russia apart from the occasional outburst of paranoia during RU military exercises... They often have a Swedish version, so if the Russian text is too hard I might be able to use that. Great tip.

Originally Posted by Hanna

I'll read it for sure. Didn't know YLE has news in Russian but that's nice to hear. I read them sometimes, and it's state TV in Finland. They are usually quite balanced in how they report on Russia apart from the occasional outburst of paranoia during RU military exercises... They often have a Swedish version, so if the Russian text is too hard I might be able to use that. Great tip.

Novosti YLE daily TV-news Novosti Yle: 23.04.2014 16.50 | Tv | Areena | yle.fi started about a year ago and I think radio news have been on air for decades. Novosti has been a great source for me in my efforts to learn Russian, because it subtitled in Finnish. I think YLE is relatively objective and I am happy to support it with my minimal tax effort. I also watch and read Vesti, but my language skills are not good enough to keep in pace with their live news.

I want to thank everyone who have written here about the situation in Ukraine, because every news channel has some amount of propaganda. Here also are many different opinions, but I find this site very helpful in understanding what is going on. I will not make any prophecies, I simply don't have enough knowledge, but I hope for no more violence and I hope for a reasonable welfare for everybody. That sounds naive hippie-shit, but nothing, really nothing is worth killing people.

Edit: Sorry, that the link is off-topic... Yesterdays news happened to concern only Finnish things, but there is normally foreign news, too, and from the bottom of the page you can find older broadcasts.

Originally Posted by Hanna

Yes, but the Arab springs backfired didn't they? None of these countries are actually better off. But Crimea probably will be....
.

it is probably offtopic, but I would argue that Tunesia is better off, so is Lybia without Gadaffi (just ask all the student girls raped by the dictator), Egypt not, and Crimea may or may not be (time will tell)

When people protest in the West they do exactly that - they simply protest. They are not rebelling against the government. Even in London in 2011 there was no rebellion - just riots and vandalism. A rebellion can not happen out of nothing. Planning makes a difference. A riot can occur incidentally, but with a rebellion - someone has to design it, plan it and carry it out.

Originally Posted by Ramil

When people protest in the West they do exactly that - they simply protest. They are not rebelling against the government. Even in London in 2011 there was no rebellion - just riots and vandalism. A rebellion can not happen out of nothing. Planning makes a difference. A riot can occur incidentally, but with a rebellion - someone has to design it, plan it and carry it out.

Loved this comment, and you are completely right. Not that Ukrainians/Russians are some gurus who always get it right... but you have considerably more knowledge on radical transformation of societies than anyone in Western Europe or the USA. Both theoretical, practical and technical.

Too right about the UK riots. There are some very good reasons to rise up against the state here. They are selling off public welfare to the highest bidder, the poor getting so poor they can't afford food and heating, and billionaires increasing every year. But the riots like you said, just people wanting to fight and grab a free plasma TV. The modern opium of the people. That was an opportunity lost, and they certainly have done everything they can to maker sure riots like this can never even start again.

If Ukraine had the anti-riot laws and technical equipment + surveillance that the UK has, then Euromaidan could perhaps NEVER even have started. The UK would have reacted much more aggressively, faster and with more force than the "evil dictator" Yanukovich did. That's a fact and everyone in the UK knows it.

The French are always blocking motorways with lorries, striking in the metro, ports and what not. But the last time they had a revolution was 1789...

And Americans seem to believe that as long as you legally own a gun a car and have access to affordable petrol, you are a free man. That's the only things you can complain about, otherwise you are an evil caammunist and possibly terrorist.... So there will probably never be a revolution there. I think they'll wake up one morning in the not-so-distant future and have to face the reality that their much hyped "democracy" and "freedom" is a hoax and they are trapped as modern slaves in a fascist dictatorship.

In Sweden any sense of rebellion against REAL authority is removed from people's DNA at birth or in state daycare, in the cosy people's state... "If the state does it, it's automatically right, because the state is always good and only wants what's best for people!" Never mind that they contradict themselves and change the tune all the time. Rebelling against the headmaster in a school, patriarchy, or a boss at work - sure, very cool. But not against the real powers that make the big decisions.

I hope all groups that are revolutionary in a positive sense keep an eye on what's happening in Ukraine and actually learn from it. There is something to learn from the Arab springs too.

The way things are going, that type of knowledge can come in quite handy 10-20 years from now when the big brother corporate fascist state will be fait accompli (I believe...)

I just wonder - are there smart people in Moscow (or Washington) who are masterminding events in Ukraine, or is it genuine people's power?
I think it's a mix/symbiosis.

Originally Posted by Hanna

I just wonder - are there smart people in Moscow (or Washington) who are masterminding events in Ukraine, or is it genuine people's power?
I think it's a mix/symbiosis.

We don't really know what is happening. All we know there are well-organized squads and somehow-organized activists. There seems to be an indisputable position in the West that the well-organized squads are Russian troops. I'm wondering is there a proof for that. For example:

Originally Posted by voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_04_15/EU-military-intelligence-chief-rules-out-Russia-s-involvement-in-Ukraine-events-1955

Commodore Georgij Alafuzoff, in charge of EU military intelligence, is feeling skeptical about Russian army's involvement in Ukraine’s recent developments, as reported by Finnish Yle broadcaster. As he points out, the protests in Ukraine are mostly centered around local Russian speaking public, deeply disappointed with the situation in the country.

More specifically, that is not exactly what Chief of the EU military intelligence said according to the Yle's website, so try to read the Russian version of it: Глава разведки ЕС: Продвижение на Украину не в интересах

He does not "feel skeptical" but literary said: "there is no proof". Huge difference for the intelligence. So, I am wondering where that indisputable position of the West had come from? The way it should be, I think, is first a EU bureaucrat gets a report from the EU intelligence: "Russian troops are in the Eastern Ukraine", and then the bureaucrats have a series of meetings to decide how to address that, and then they issue the media statements to convince the public of their planned way, and then they act. No bureaucrat wants to be responsible for anything, he would always need a paper to refer to in case his butt comes under fire. So, if the Chief of intelligence does not know for sure and the EU bureaucrats know for sure, maybe the Chief of intelligence should learn from the bureaucrats? If the bureaucrats know the situation better than the intelligence, then the intelligence is a useless organization which should be deprived of the funding and dissolved, won't you think?

Unfortunately, you can only find that info on Yle's website or RT and the Voice of Russia. The other Western media do not seem interested in distributing that information. I guess, they don't think it's important info for the public. Indeed, some Chief of Intelligence of EU said something about the missing proof.. who cares? Who needs the military intelligence anyway?

I encourage all English speakers to watch the interview with Sergei Lavrov on "Sophie & Co" on RT. It's about Ukraine. Very good interview and he speaks excellent English. It'll broadcast today and probably available to play separately on the website. http://rt.com/shows/sophieco/ You can hear him speak freely, finish his sentences without being interrupted and say what he has to say, then draw your own conclusions. Lavrov is a great deal more sympathetic than Putin, I think. And he looks exactly like my grandfather apart from different eye colour.

Originally Posted by Ramil

My opinion is that no revolution during the past 50 years (and quite probably even earlier) has taken place without some 'assistance' from the outside. Literally - not a single one!

I think you may well be right but I don't know about every single revolution. The Arab springs seem spontaneous in the beginning. The Iranian revolution seemed quite spontaneous, but it's not like I remember that myself, just based on what I read. It wasn't the US, and probably not the USSR behind it anyway.

Originally Posted by Hanna

The Iranian revolution seemed quite spontaneous. It wasn't the US, and probably not the USSR behind it anyway.

That's right.Iran's Islamic Revolution is different from the world's other revolutions.Theda Skocpol ,for example,says that the Iranian Revolution challenged expectations about revolutionary causation that she developed through comparative-historical research on the French , Russian ,and Chinese Revolutions.

My opinion is that no revolution during the past 50 years (and quite probably even earlier) has taken place without some 'assistance' from the outside. Literally - not a single one!
There always have been inspirators who pursued their own interests, and quite often these interests were opposite to what these revolutions had been proclaiming. I don't believe in 'people's sudden self-awareness' and its political will. That's absurd!
Same with Ukraine. Both sides are being manipulated. We're watching a puppet show.

Десять часов в Славянске | Украинская правда

Где-то так. Хорошо согласуется с описаниями местных, которые я слышал.

Интервью с самопровозглашенным мэром Славянска Вячеславом Пономаревым
http://www.kramatorsk.info/view/148678

И с этим хорошо согласуется.

USA behaves as if it were the 40s or 50s now. It was hard time. Europe laid in ruins, there was a civil war in China, India was fighting for independence. There were only two centers of power: USA and USSR. Not much to choice. But nowadays attempts to demonize Russia and start the second cold war look weird.
What is going on in Ukraine is an internal affair of the states of Eastern Europe. Russia, Poland, Germany and Turkey are fighting each other here for centuries, using minor states in their own interests. But nobody's happy to see USA here. It's our own business.
USA arranged an orange revolution in Ukraine and now they say Russia is an "aggressor" so Europe should support USA in the fight for democracy and human rights. Well we had a chance to look at that American "democracy" in Iraq, though it was called "oil" for some reason. Everyone here understands that it all is about money, not about democracy. EU and Russia are economic partners, and USA definitely not happy with this.
And by the way, whose forces are placed all over Europe: Russian or American? Who is an aggressor actually?

If they are constantly looking for war, they can find it finally...

Киевская хунта действует в лучших традициях своих кумиров. Уже листовки с самолётов разбразывают (типа "хенде хох, русиш швайн", в канун 9 мая это особенно символично). Порадовала двусмысленная фразочка в листовке (подчеркнул красным):

Rossiya 24 showed the attacks of Ukrainian army against Slovyansk. It looked extremely disturbing.

I think it's time to do a civilised referendum about this.

With ALL the options, i.e. on everything from everything from complete governance from Kiev, via federalism, autonomy, independence or annexation to Russia.

If Scotland can have a referendum, why not these people?

Let the local people cast their votes and stop this madness.

I think that if I lived there, I would want complete independence for the area. Yes, I am probably naive and don't know enough about it - but I tried to find out and the story really engages me.

Seems to me the area is big enough and has enough resources to go it alone. It's larger than Benelux and has more people than lots of EU countries. They could form alliances with whoever they want - trade agreements, custom unions or whatever.

In that way they can land on their feet, run their area in accordance with the wishes of the majority and decide in peace and quiet what they want for the future, whether it's reverting to Ukraine, remaining independent, going with Russia, trying for EU membership or whatever appeals to the population.

But right now they seem to be 2nd class citizens in their own country and having war waged on them by an illegal government. They may or may not be exploited by Russia in whatever games or agenda Russia may or may not have, and they are certainly blackpainted in an unfair way in Western media.
Nobody is treating them very well, really, and they are stuck in a country that doesn't respect them and neighbouring another country that may not necessarily offer the solution to their problem either.

If I lived there, I would day "sod 'em all - we can do better". I think the area and people seem cool and interesting. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they can achieve something more appealing than both Russia and certainly Kiev/Ukraine.

Originally Posted by Hanna

...
Seems to me the area is big enough and has enough resources to go it alone. It's larger than Benelux and has more people than lots of EU countries. They could form alliances with whoever they want - trade agreements, custom unions or whatever. ...

imho that can never work - not because they are not capable or do not have the resources - but because of the historical context of Ukraine within the Soviet Union and its geographical location as a buffer zone to Russia's west (or south west). The bottom line is Russia does not want a Ukraine (in particular East-ukraine) that aligns itself with Nato/Europe. Now imagine this little independent 'go-it-alone' East Ukraine in 15 years decides to align trade agreements and allegiances etc with the West. Do you think Russia will be happy and alow it to happen? The answer is no. Equally so trouble would arise is Minsk one day decides to orientate itself towards Europe. And I am not blaming Russia. Fact is they do not want Nato in what they perceive to be their own backyard (and partly have some - at least emotional - claim to what they perceive was originally theirs). Hence, it is quite clear that any independent little state (such as an independent east-ukraine) would constantly be bullied by both east and west to conform to their respective whims.

I don't think Russia has anything against the EU or Europe on principle.
Just to the extent that for some EU=NATO=Russophobia+general bias against Russia.
Obviously they object to that. I.e. what countries like Poland and the Baltic states do.

Finland for example has reasonably good relations and co-operation with Russia while also being an EU member, but not in NATO. For the most part Finland accepts Russia as it is. People in Finland are not scared of Russia because they know there is logic and consistency to how Russia reacts, it's not some rogue state that does random and crazy things. All sensible people in Finland (my neighbouring country) realise that NATO membership would be an extremely bad and counterproductive idea + it also goes against most people's ideological views too. Even though Finland was part of Imperial Russia for quite a while, Russia has no known designs on Finland.

Whatever you might think about Poland, at least they have chosen their path, stuck with it. As a result there is stability and an improvement in living conditions for large parts of society. Admittedly at a very high price. (mass emigration and brutal economic policies). But they are in a better situation than Ukraine, even though their economy was 1/3 of Ukraines in 1992, it's now twice as big.

The problem in Ukraine seems to be that they are so deeply split that while they are together, that they are just not making progress. The population is pulling the country in two directions, with the help of the superpowers and to the detriment of the population. While at the same time facing economic challenges. It's a formula for failure! The definition of madness is to keep doing the same thing and expect a different outcome. Ukraine has tried doing the same thing for almost 25 years now.I think the events in 2014 shows that status quo must change. Time to try something else, whether it's federalism, splitting up the country or a strong leader that makes them work together whether they want to or not. Just something different.

As for Belarus that you mention; they too picked their path and stuck with it. They have their challenges but at least everyone has a job, country has been modernied/renovated and is stable.
I don't perceive that as a Russian puppet; they took a different route to Russia and Russia is not running the show there. They just decided to orient themselves eastwards as opposed to westwards.

My impression was that Russia did not mind it if Ukraine managed to co-operate with both the EU and Russia. That's what RT says, anyway.
Whereas the EU took very strong offense at the idea of Ukraine working with both; and the USA even more so...

Maybe I got it wrong - but that was what I got out of putting both Russian and Western media options together and trying to discern the reality.

If ever there was a country stuck in limbo, it is Ukraine!

Немного о мнении евреев в Израиле:

Originally Posted by www.newsru.co.il/israel/25apr2014/uk_ru_115.html

В пятницу, 25 апреля, около посольства Российской Федерации в Тель-Авиве, расположенного по адресу улица а-Яркон, 120, прошел очередной митинг в поддержку Украины, против политики Кремля. Для участия в акции собрались около 70 человек.


В то же время, у посольства Украины (ул. Иермиягу, 50) под лозунгом "против хунты и за юго-восток Украины" свою акцию проводили сторонники курса руководства России. Несколько десятков участников этой акции заявляли о росте "фашистских" настроений на Украине.

In my opinion the situation with Finland is quite different. Already in 1905 (after the murder of Bobrikov in 1904 and strike action in 1905) Nicolai II granted Finland autonomous status (as actually was also the case under Alexander II). Independence was declared in 1917 and acknowledged by the new powers to be in Russia. Hence Finland was never part of the Soviet Union (and not in their hearts and minds). This is quite different to Ukraine, which economically and culturally was an integral and essential part of the Union. A man of the soil (Nikita Chruschtschow) becoming General Secretary in CCCP is a reflection of how much the Ukraine was part of the system. Thus Russia is a lot more sensitive to developments there, than it is to Finland. It does obviously help that Finland keeps fairly neutral as you rightly say - it is not seen as an enemy anywhere (though this was not always the case - in 2nd WW Finland did have an allegiance with Germany)