Thread: Crimea joining the Russian Federation and its implications?

Originally Posted by edvalais

This week's turmoil in Russia's stock and capital markets is a direct consequence of her desire to annexe Crimea. It is a reaction to the possibility of economic sanctions against Russia. I don't see how this is off-topic, sorry. However, if you don't wish people to discuss the consequences of "Crimea joining the Russian Federation" (the title of this thread) then, being a good boy, I will desist.

Ладно, пусть здесь остаётся. Я добавлю что-нибудь к названию темы.

Originally Posted by edvalais

This week's turmoil in Russia's stock and capital markets is a direct consequence of her desire to annexe Crimea. It is a reaction to the possibility of economic sanctions against Russia. I don't see how this is off-topic, sorry. However, if you don't wish people to discuss the consequences of "Crimea joining the Russian Federation" (the title of this thread) then, being a good boy, I will desist.

Your points are unpopular to the regulars so you're being re-directed? Same as your 'free speech' topic being moved from 'Politics.' LOL I think the economics of Russia regarding the Crimea developments is relevant. At the very least, there will be repercussions so that the West can save face as they did say there will be consequences. They need to do even something minor.

A good time to begin to study Chinese. 我学汉语 你呢?

Originally Posted by SergeMak

A good time to begin to study Chinese. 我学汉语 你呢?

Nice!

Originally Posted by Lampada

Nice!

谢谢!

Originally Posted by SergeMak

谢谢!

Агащаз. Мне от вас вполне достаточно. Это уже пусть, кому интересно, гуглят.

It's "thank you" in Chinese.
What about the economic situation in Russia, it began to worsen a month before the Crimean events. And not only in Russia. Kazakhstan's currency also was devalued.
As for sanctions... Of course we hope to escape them, but even if we won't... I think sanctions for economy are like a fast for the body - they help to lose redundant weight and strengthen one's heart and spirit.

Originally Posted by SergeMak

It's "thank you" in Chinese.
What about the economic situation in Russia, it began to worsen a month before the Crimean events. And not only in Russia. Kazakhstan's currency also was devalued.
As for sanctions... Of course we hope to escape them, but even if we won't... I think sanctions for economy are like a fast for the body - they help to lose redundant weight and strengthen one's heart and spirit.

Да? Чем хуже, тем лучше? В интернете говорят, что всё было заранее обдумано и просчитано. Я думаю, что ни для кого не лучше. Мои стаки точно вниз пойдут.

Well, maybe it was beforehand thought and counted only by who? Isn't it strange that Putin talks more than an hour with Obama over the phone in the dead of the night and on the next morning the mysterious "green men" hold the Crimean Parliament? Then Putin communicates with Merkel and Crimea decides to go for the referendum. Don't you think that the world leaders are fooling us?
Maybe they are trying to convince their peoples that the inevitable worsening of the economies of their countries is not the consequence of the next turn of the world financial crisis which they cannot cope with, but fault of Russia, a traditional scarecrow for the Westerners and let Russia keep Crimea as a moral compensation?

Originally Posted by SergeMak

Well, maybe it was beforehand thought and counted only by who? Isn't it strange that Putin talks more than an hour with Obama over the phone in the dead of the night and on the next morning the mysterious "green men" hold the Crimean Parliament? Then Putin communicates with Merkel and Crimea decides to go for the referendum. Don't you think that the world leaders are fooling us?
Maybe they are trying to convince their peoples that the inevitable worsening of the economies of their countries is not the consequence of the next turn of the world financial crisis which they cannot cope with, but fault of Russia, a traditional scarecrow for the Westerners and let Russia keep Crimea as a moral compensation?

Ой, не смешите мои тапочки! Путин правит по указке Обамы? А до Обамы? А что будет после Обамы? Обаме чуть больше друх лет осталось.
Честно говоря, я политикой вообще не интересуюсь и в ней не разбираюсь. Важно, как политика отражается на жизни людей. От разных резких перемен часто не приходится ждать хорошего.

Обама вообще клоун, который ничего не решает. Господа, которые принимают решения, которые озвучивает Вашингтон, на публике не любят светиться. Положение Путина довольно шаткое. Если бы он был хоть на 10% таким деспотом, как его рисует Запад, то есть где-то на 5% от уровня Сталина, все эти наши грефы, христенки, набиулины, зурабовы и прочая шушера давно пилила бы вековые ели лобзиком в Сибире. А так как этого не происходит, значит Путин всех устраивает, включая Меркель и Обаму.

Originally Posted by SergeMak

Обама вообще клоун, который ничего не решает. Господа, которые принимают решения, которые озвучивает Вашингтон, на публике не любят светиться. Положение Путина довольно шаткое. Если бы он был хоть на 10% таким деспотом, как его рисует Запад, то есть где-то на 5% от уровня Сталина, все эти наши грефы, христенки, набиулины, зурабовы и прочая шушера давно пилила бы вековые ели лобзиком в Сибире. А так как этого не происходит, значит Путин всех устраивает, включая Меркель и Обаму.

Можно считать, что страсти улеглись, Крым празднует победу. А нам здесь можно уже переходить из Политики в другие разделы.
Серёжа, примите отдельное приглашение!

Все только начинается, но спасибо за приглашение.

(preliminary information)

Well, I am convinced by this referendum. It's definitely the will of the majority on Crimea to become Russians. Good luck to them. I hope Russia will treat them really well.

Sure, I can spot that there was no third option on the ballot, and that the campaigning situation gave Russia an edge. Defininitely a lot of money was spent on some very populistic campaigning. But looking at the convincing figures, the high level of participation and the exultation in people celebrating, it's still definitely the will of the majority.

And it doesn't matter if it had been done perfectly by the book.... The EU and USA, and in extension, media in these countries would never have approved of the referendum regardless. Might as well not bother trying.

As for Ukraine ..this type of thing that happens, if a counry alienates minorities and exerts language oppression. The EU collectively knows this, but supported coup makers that they know don't tolerate minorities. I think the EU did Ukraine a disservice, and that many Ukrainians let themselves be manipulated.

Hopefully the new government in Kiev will consider how they treat minority people in Ukraine in light of this.

It wouldn't surprise me if this referendum and the outcome will serve as a catalyst for other European areas that also find themselves in the wrong country, or would like independence. There are plenty.

So this will be the THIRD country that a 35 year old+ Crimean is a citizen of, without actually moving!

I totally do respect the Crimean Referendum and the results. I read the document, issed by the Council of Ministries in Simferopol, that ordered all the soldiers to disarm and turn in their weapons for the duration of the referendum. I also read that there were 135 International observoers and that the voting was peaceful. Btw, it trumps the bloody US military coup of the monarchy that led to the annexation of Hawaii. If our country can destroy their government, kill most of the Hawaiians, and claim those islands then yeah, I think a referendum for peaceful annexation is totally valid.
Anyway, I've already edited my geopolitical world map and my map of Russia to include Crimea as part of the Russian Federation. And I added Севастополь, Симферополь, and Керчь to my list of Russian cities. This is history happening! Crimea FTW!

Originally Posted by Hanna

Well, I am convinced by this referendum.

Originally Posted by UhOhXplode

I totally do respect the Crimean Referendum and the results.

Well, OK, I understand, you have no experience in voting during foreign military occupation. But at least you can try to think about the following questions.

1) Now there are 15% of Crimean Tatars in Crimea. They are the only native Crimean ethnos. After WWII ALL of them (the whole ethnos) were brought away from Crimea with many casualities and without possessions to elsewhere (mainly to the Central Asia) by Russian (Soviet) militaries (nowadays it is called "ethnic cleaning"). The survivors came back recently and up to now they many times showed their position as anti-Russian and pro-Ukrainian and were very active in public actions etc. Namely just before invasion and after the runaway of Yanukovich they were making intensive anti-Russian mass protests. Now the question: why are they so quiet now and how exactly in your opinion they are distributed among those official voters? If they voted for joining Russia why exactly they are so happy to do it, and if they didn't come to vote, why exactly, and why exactly all other population came about 100%?

2) In the elections before the invasion the pro-russian party of contemporary Crimean "government" gained 3% of votes. What exactly made other 92% of population change their opinion so drastically? (If you say it is the revolution against Yanukovich, remember that the similar revolution in 2004 didn't cause such an effect).

Originally Posted by it-ogo

Well, OK, I understand, you have no experience in voting during foreign military occupation. But at least you can try to think about the following questions.

Were there any information of people being threated or forced to vote one way or another?

Originally Posted by it-ogo

Now the question: why are they so quiet now and how exactly in your opinion they are distributed among those official voters? If they voted for joining Russia why exactly they are so happy to do it, and if they didn't come to vote, why exactly, and why exactly all other population came about 100%?

Yes, why are they so quiet? May be something were offered to them and that offer was accepted? Or you think russian army threatened them with genocide in case of wrong behavior?

Originally Posted by it-ogo

2) In the elections before the invasion the pro-russian party of contemporary Crimean "government" gained 3% of votes. What exactly made other 92% of population change their opinion so drastically? (If you say it is the revolution against Yanukovich, remember that the similar revolution in 2004 didn't cause such an effect).

Did that party had any real power or financial resources for election campaing? Or were they just bunch of blabbers trying to capitalize on pro-russian rhetoric? Didn't Region Party have pro-russian rhetoric (esp. in Crimea), being direct competitor of these pro-russian parties?

Originally Posted by it-ogo

Now the question: why are they so quiet now and how exactly in your opinion they are distributed among those official voters? If they voted for joining Russia why exactly they are so happy to do it, and if they didn't come to vote, why exactly, and why exactly all other population came about 100%?

They've been simply bought. Their leaders have already received several million dollars 'for building a mosque' and I expect they will receive some extra in the near future. Putin gave personal guarantees that their current property will remain 'as is' (which means that everything they had illegally appropriated before will remain theirs de-jure). I'd say this is more than enough to change sides. I doubt they were too patriotic about Ukraine anyway. As for the rest of the population - they all know that salaries and pensions are generally higher in Russia that they had been in Ukraine during Yanukovich's rule and certainly they will be much higher now. Everybody voted by their purse and I don't blame them. I would do the same.

Originally Posted by Ramil

They've been simply bought. Their leaders have already received several million dollars 'for building a mosque' and I expect they will receive some extra in the near future. Putin gave personal guarantees that their current property will remain 'as is' (which means that everything they had illegally appropriated before will remain theirs de-jure). I'd say this is more than enough to change sides. I doubt they were too patriotic about Ukraine anyway. As for the rest of the population - they all know that salaries and pensions are generally higher in Russia that they had been in Ukraine during Yanukovich's rule and certainly they will be much higher now. Everybody voted by their purse and I don't blame them. I would do the same.

You have points, (but it was not you who was asked to think about that). So some militaries came and Putin said: "you see, Ukraine can't protect you from my militaries but you will be allowed to continue with your lives and even to keep your posessions (behold my generosity!) if your behavior satisfies me". Now the next question to our Western readers: can you still support such kind of referendum? Do you still believe it shows the free will of anyone?

And one point to you, Ramil: if those people believed that their votes will really be taken into account (or even registered and counted) by anyone wouldn't they be much more difficult to buy?

My point is: when foreign militaries come and a powerfull dictator makes clear they are here to stay whatever anyone else can think about that, there is no way to make any expression of free will. Maybe crimean population has an opinion (maybe they are happy or not), but the one who now in charge doesn't need it really, and everyone understands that, so we can't reliably find out anyone's opinion. All they can is to relax and try to enjoy the situation.

All we see is nobody in Crimea is ready to spend their lives fighting the Russian army for now. And that is the kind of social agreement dictators usually deal with.