Thread: Почему распался Советский Союз? Что происходит в Прибалтике, и немного истории

Prices are almost the same as elsewhere in the EU but peoples salaries are much lower.

Look at Greece - their salaries are higher - and look where such policies got them.
Actually so-called crisis was a good thing - most of population learned a lesson that you cannot live off borrowed money forever - Greeks learned this in a harder way now.
I, for example, live a lot better than during pre-crisis or so-called "fat years" - when credits were easy accessible, real-estate bubble was getting bigger and salaries also were higher.
People at that time "lost their minds" over easy accessible cash - for example, low skilled construction workers took credits to buy cars like Porsche Cayenne or BMW X5, because salaries were really overinflated in construction sector at that time.
It's no surprise that such situation did not last long - real estate bubble burst - prices fell, most of construction companies went out of business and banks took these BMWs back .
So you see that this fall of GDP was not really a fall, but more like return to normal situation.
Now GDP is growing again, but more slowly, and this time there is no bubble.

Originally Posted by Hanna

If you compare with how things LOOK, then Belarus looked a lot better.

I guess you see it right as it is:



Comparing Belarus to Latvia.

So if you are low skilled worker (and took unpayable credit during "fat years" for bonus points ) then your life could be really hard now.
But if you did not take any bad credits (or took credits and invested them in a good non-bubble business) and/or you are educated/skilled specialist in your field you can live quite well - maybe not as good as in the Western EU...
I mainly speak out of my experience in IT field - no one of programmers I know is unemployed.

Originally Posted by Basil77

I guess you see it right as it is:



Comparing Belarus to Latvia.

...have 0 times more chance of being detained and then put in jail for 15 days for clapping your hands on the street
...have 0 times more chance of being detained for screaming out such "terrible anti-state slogans" as "Long live, Latvia" (the initial one is "Long live, Belarus")

Google "silent protests" (you don't even have to specify the country - just these two words)...


Not to mention, that resource is in no way to be trusted. I tried comparing the US to Belarus, and it said you'd make 4 times more money in the US than in Belarus. This is such bullsh*t! While in the US you can hardly find incomes less than $30-40 an hour, in Belarus there're loads of people who get paid around $1 an hour or less...

On Seraph's article:
I'll read that article properly tomorrow - it's quite interesting. I just skimmed it.

But yes it's true. These countries have been partly exploited by corporations in Western Europe. Rather shameless. But I think everyone knew this was going to happen as early as 1991-92.

The point about banks was particularly interesting. Romania was the most extreme example. Every big European bank is there; Raifeissen the best example, their ads were everywhere in Romania. Trying to get people to borrow money they can't really afford in the first place so that they can join in with the consumption hysteria. In reality they don't have the cash - that type of consumption is unrealistic in in Western Europe too.

In Romania, older people were really disillusioned with what capitalism had offered so far, and younger people were just totally disillusioned in general.
I was given several examples of how Britain for example, had treated Romania poorly in different ways, and tried to preach about percieved wrongs in Romania and generally take the moral high road while ripping off the country. They felt they were the trash can of the EU, literally, in more ways than one and several people even went as far as saying that a lot was better pre 90s (hard to imagine, the Ceaucescu regime seems to have been the worst in Eastern Europe).
Nevertheless, the Romanians were nice and warm people.

I could see that the foreign banks were making inroads in Ukraine too, including several Swedish banks.
Belarus had a lot of banks, but all the names were unfamiliar to me - I assume they were local, or Russian.

Latvia has all the big Swedish banks represented. It seems they may actually be the main banks in the country. These banks overexposed themselves by trying to lend money in the Baltic States, against insufficient guarantees. They were so keen to quickly get a footing in this untapped market that they basically dropped all normal safety precautions. The Swedish economy actually took a big hit at the same time as Latvia and the state had to go in with money to keep two of the banks afloat. Latvian consumers lose, Swedish tax payers lose but - surprise, surprise - the banks keep on winning and paying out their bonuses to the 'clever' directors who took this leap.

I think that the Latvians negative stance against Russia is probably costing them a lot of money. For example - if they could chill with the rhetoric against Russia, they could have benefited from being transit countries for gas and oil. And that's just the beginning.

Originally Posted by Basil77

I guess you see it right as it is:

That is really surprising. I actually would have thought that Latvia would do better than Belarus! But the Belarussians are a really cool people. Maybe I shouldn't be surprised. Lukashenko have done quite a few things right, I think.
While I was there, I kept thinking "it just LOOKS great, in reality the state has no money". I thought that the devaluation was a big failure. Be that as it may... The whole country LOOKs rather fixed up and you don't see unemployed people hanging around, or any excessive boozing or antisocial behaviour. They are extremely quality conscious there in terms of education, and keeping everything to a some 'certified' standard. And they certainly know how to clean!

In Latvia on the other hand, there is a lot of boozing, and no, it's not particularly the Russians that booze.
That can only be bad for peoples health.
The Western European lifestyle is much more present here - compared with Belarus. People are cruising around in cars, playing super loud techno music at any hour of the day or night... People have a hard time finding a job. In the hotel where I stayed first, one of the waitresses (a Russian speaker) had a degree from an engineering college in Riga (the course was in Latvian, and she had struggled for a year). The course cost money and she had some kind of debt to pay off. She said she couldn't find a good job and had been unemployed. She was considering moving to Denmark.

People in Liepaja are healthy, cycling and with a great sun tan and fashionable dress sense. Kids are rollerblading. Along the coast they have made a really good cycling / walking lane so people can commute by bicycle. Very cool it's got multiple lanes.

@Nulle --- Interesting points and it's good that you know that credit is a bad thing in most situations. Construction workers buying BMWs... hm...!

And you are in the right sector (same as me), obviously none of the problems will affect you, and if they do you could easily just leave the country..

I'd like to see Latvia as a strong economy in it's own right, finding a unique niche in the EU and making up with Russia. Neoliberalism leads to the weaker countries being exploited, or even tricked or practically robbed, as happened a bit in Eastern Europe. European subsidies are not the way to go long term either and if I am not mistaken, it puts you in a weaker negotion position. Likewise IMF loans. Latvia as low cost area for textile work or IT outsourcing is probably not the way you want to go in the future.

Originally Posted by nulle

in the US you can hardly find incomes less than $30-40 an hour

I think all the people working on the US minimum wage of ~7.50 would like to know where to find these jobs 30-40 USD jobs. I think people in the Baltics have a much higher view of the US than it deserves. What did they ever do for you?

Originally Posted by Eric C.

I tried comparing the US to Belarus, and it said you'd make 4 times more money in the US than in Belarus. This is such bullsh*t! While in the US you can hardly find incomes less than $30-40 an hour, in Belarus there're loads of people who get paid around $1 an hour or less...

Haven't you heard about purchasing parity? Comparing people's salaries using exchanging course makes no sence. Such researches usually compare amount of standart goods that you can buy where you live on what you earn.

Originally Posted by nulle

And rapid increase of Russian population in Soviet times was because Moscow sent immigrants here - and their inflow stopped after USSR dissolution.
...
Russia's population chart is similar:
File:Population of Russia.PNG - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Maybe you would care to explain why Russian population chart is similar? Who did send immigrants to Russia during the Soviet times?

I think that the Latvians negative stance against Russia is probably costing them a lot of money.

Do you think that we should be prostituting ourselves to Russia?
Lukashenko already tried that - and see where that got him.
He has two options now.
1. Resign and start a democracy in Belarus. That way Belarus can get help from the EU.
Of course situation will be hard - like 90s in the Baltics, but after that - situation will stabilize and maybe someday Belarus will become a normal European country.

2. Sell Belarus to Russia. And lose all economic power. And probably get ousted by Russia anyway after some time and replaced by more loyal Kremlin's puppet.
Then Belarus will become de-facto autonomous oblast of Russia.
Too bad that both of those options are bad for Lukashenko , and only first is good for Belarus in long term.

People have a hard time finding a job.

Yes, outside of Rīga region it can be hard unfortunately - Latvia has become too centralized, but in Rīga - if you are able to do something useful and are not "boozing around" - you will not be unemployed for long.

Practically everyone has a relative or a friend that is working abroad. (some of my relatives have emigrated to Ireland, but they are mostly doing shitty jobs - I actually know no one that has a good job there).

Construction workers buying BMWs... hm...

It was a real madness.
During "fat years" there were sooo many new and expensive cars on roads. Traffic in Rīga was a complete nightmare, because most of city's infrastructure was built during Soviet years and was not suited for such a high congestion.
And when "crisis" started - most of them disappeared practically overnight (I'm exaggerating ) and traffic problems were gone.

.
.The Spectre Haunting Europe: Debt Defaults, Austerity, and Death of the 鉄ocial Europe Model
.

Skimmed through the last link - what Hudson actually recommends is - to restart "fat years" again - thank you very much.
Not try to not live higher that you can afford (even if it hurts in a short term), but fuck that - let's begin "public investment" - i.e. pedal-to-the-metal, print money, start double-digit inflation, forget about joining Eurozone, etc...

I think all the people working on the US minimum wage of ~7.50 would like to know where to find these jobs 30-40 USD jobs. I think people in the Baltics have a much higher view of the US than it deserves. What did they ever do for you?

Yes, I forgot to specify, Americans' incomes. That is not illegal immigrants'.

PS. That was really interesting to observe my transformation to nulle.

Originally Posted by nulle

Skimmed through the last link - what Hudson actually recommends is - to restart "fat years" again - thank you very much.
Not try to not live higher that you can afford (even if it hurts in a short term), but fuck that - let's begin "public investment" - i.e. pedal-to-the-metal, print money, start double-digit inflation, forget about joining Eurozone, etc...

This is not what Hudson and Sommers recommend. You have to know what denomination of national/public debts in foreign currency means to your economy, in order to see what he actually recommends. And you have to know what he is talking about concerning dysfunctional tax policies.

Originally Posted by Eric C.

Yes, I forgot to specify, Americans' incomes. That is not illegal immigrants'.

Provide source. And data collection method. In American statistical reporting, there are various official methods. Ones that are based on tax documents, necessarily do not include people who are below reporting thresholds. In real terms, not only are there a lot of unemployed that cannot find jobs, a lot of people with jobs are just one or two pay checks away from the street. Official stats are a joke.

Originally Posted by Basil77

Maybe you would care to explain why Russian population chart is similar? Who did send immigrants to Russia during the Soviet times?

It‘s because it was strictly forbidden to leave USSR and it’s simply natural that the number of people increased there because Russians were used to have BIG families and by the way as you know now there are more possibilities to leave this country, this is why number of people in Russia is decreasing By the way, first of all, try to find out if people were allowed to leave USSR during soviet times and then you won’t have such silly questions…

Originally Posted by Hanna

I think people in the Baltics have a much higher view of the US than it deserves. What did they ever do for you?

And you are making mistake again If you don‘t like USA then it doesn‘t mean that everyone should dislike this country too. By the way, Americans at least aren‘t communists Personally, I‘ve always thought that USA is just an amazing country compared to Russia, and I think that there is no need to give any kind of proof to support such statement, it‘s just obvious And Baltic countries also have a view about Russia which this country really deserved, so get used to that idea.

P.S. It seems so silly when Russians come here and try to prove that USSR has done something good to Baltic countries. Neither you lived in Baltic countries, nor you know what happened there, so stop wasting your time and trying to convince someone with your propaganda…

Почему распался Советский Союз?

По моему, расширять значение этого вопроса нельзя. Дмитрий Куликов пишет о "капиталистической контрреволюции". Но ведь "капиталистическая контрреволюция" могла бы осуществиться и в едином советском государстве. Именно такой сценарий был Западу более выгодным. Распад Советского Союза создал угрозу - советский ядерный арсеналь мог бы выйти из контроля разумных правителей.

Конечно, возможности удержать Прибалтику не было. Но сохранить союз России и Украины, например, было вполне возможно.

И так, разпался Советский Союз слчуайно. Так стеклись обстоятельтва. Или, если хотите, по воле Ельцина.

В результате Августовского путча Горбачев практически лишился власти. Однако он продолжал стоять на верху Советского союза, занимал важный пост, но уже не мог выполнять объязанности. На верху таким образом появился вакуум.

В той ситуации, чтобы спасти Советский союз от распада, Горбачев должен был сразу уйти в оставку и назначить Ельцина своим заместителем. Ельцин удержал бы Союз. Горбачев, может быть, не сознавал опасности и свой пост не уступал.

В той ситуации, убедившись, что сам Горбачев не уйдет, Ельцин растрог союз и стал независимым правителем. Меньшего государства, чем могло быть, но все таки очень большого государства.

Этому способствовало (случайное/благоприятное) стечение обстоятельств.
Причиной того было неожиданное стечение обстоятельств.
Так сложились обстоятельства.
В силу стечения обстоятельств...
...мог выйти из-под контроля
не осознал/не осознавал опасности.
Расторгнуть, расторжение обычно о контракте, договоре
Указы, реформы? Ельцина раскололи, развалили Советский Союз.

Provide source. And data collection method. In American statistical reporting, there are various official methods. Ones that are based on tax documents, necessarily do not include people who are below reporting thresholds. In real terms, not only are there a lot of unemployed that cannot find jobs, a lot of people with jobs are just one or two pay checks away from the street. Official stats are a joke.

Well, I wouldn't say, of course, it's totally impossible to find incomes less than $30 an hour among the Americans, but I think it's quite rare. You're talking about terrible things, could you at least specify the kind of job those people have? Where the salaries are so incredibly small that people can't even pay for their bills...

Eric, how exactly do you "know" this? You don't live in the USA. What do you think waitresses, construction workers, cleaners and low skilled factory workers in the USA make? It sure ain't no $30... (note my yankee English! ) I don't know precisely what it is either, but if they were on anywhere near $30 they'd be well ahead of their collegues in the UK.... whereas the reality is the opposite. Low skilled workers in the US are less paid than in the UK, not more. I'd like to see the look on the employer's face if you walked in and asked for a 30 USD/ hour to do a low skilled job.

On the article that Seraph linked to. I've read it more carefully now.
It has an agenda: It's anti globalisation. Whereas IMF and all the other institutions whose advice Latvia's been following are pro-globalization.

It happens to tie in with my political views, so I'd say it's pretty much right on the spot.
But is it painting a too gloomy picture of Latvia? I have no idea because I don't know how normal people live or whether they really have as much debt as the article suggests.

Nevertheless, I'd say that the way that Belarus has gone makes more sense TO ME. Instead of throwing out everything that the the USSR had built up, as useless, they choose to continue using it and make gradual reforms. As a result, their country is just a tiny bit 'old fashioned'... but everyone's got a job and they haven't sold out the country and all its assets to foreigners. Plus, the country looks very good - clean, no graffiti and renovation completed or in progress pretty much everywhere. You can live very cheaply there so the fact that the income levels are low is not massively relevant unless the person plans a holiday abroad, or buying something like an ipad.

Originally Posted by Report

Latvia has too little industry, too little agricultural modernization, but over 9 billion lati in private debt – now at risk of being shifted onto the government’s balance sheet, just as has occurred with the U.S. bank bailouts.
If this credit had been extended productively to build Latvia’s economy, it would have been acceptable. But it was mostly unproductive, extended to fuel land-price inflation and luxury consumption, reducing Latvia to a state of near debt serfdom.

It was Western neoliberals who financialized these economies with the “business friendly reforms” so loudly applauded by the World Bank, Washington and Brussels.

Far lower levels of corruption obviously are to be desired (but whom else would the West trust?), but dramatically reducing it would perhaps only improve matters up to the level of Estonia’s road into euro-debt peonage. These neighboring Baltic counties likewise have suffered dramatic unemployment, reduced growth, declining health standards and emigration, in sharp contrast to Scandinavia and Finland.

And as matters turned out, every design was the same. The names of individuals were different, but most were linked to and financed by Washington, the World Bank and European Union. And sponsored by the West’s financial institutions, one hardly should be surprised that they came up with a design in their own financial interest.
It was a plan that no democratic government in the West could have passed. Public enterprises were doled out to individuals trusted to sell out quickly to Western investors and local oligarchs who would move their money safely offshore into the Western havens.

I am beginning to wonder.... were these Eastern countries let into the EU so that they could be ripped off by businesses in Western Europe...? and so that their citizens can go to Germany, the UK etc and do crappy jobs that can't be filled by local people. So in the USSR built factories, schools and military bases..... The EU and USA are screwing the Balts for money.
If I was Baltic I'd be pretty confused and fed up with the situation. They've been taken for a ride...

Originally Posted by Eric C.

Well, I wouldn't say, of course, it's totally impossible to find incomes less than $30 an hour among the Americans, but I think it's quite rare. You're talking about terrible things, could you at least specify the kind of job those people have? Where the salaries are so incredibly small that people can't even pay for their bills...

"44 million Americans on foodstamps". http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...s-incomes.html. "It’s A Cash-Flow Problem": The Ever Broker US Consumer Increasingly Relying On Credit Cards For Daily Staples | zero hedge
.$30/hr?? Under $30/hr is normal. Those $30-40/hr jobs ain't open. If you look at government stats, you see lots of people with $30-40/hr jobs. But there are no openings. The truth is, lots of people really are in difficulty, and have difficulty paying bills. The reality is, the incomes of ordinary citizens in real terms are dropping, purchasing power keeps dropping.
.

Originally Posted by Hanna

...It happens to tie in with my political views, so I'd say it's pretty much right on the spot.
But is it painting a too gloomy picture of Latvia? I have no idea because I don't know how normal people live or whether they really have as much debt as the article suggests. ... I am beginning to wonder.... were these Eastern countries let into the EU so that they could be ripped off by businesses in Western Europe...? and so that their citizens can go to Germany, the UK etc and do crappy jobs that can't be filled by local people. So in the USSR built factories, schools and military bases..... The EU and USA are screwing the Balts for money. If I was Baltic I'd be pretty confused and fed up with the situation. They've been taken for a ride...

The IMF/World Bank have a track record. 40 years of austerity programs. They all end the same way. And now the EU is playing the same game.