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About LinkBacksTo meet EU standards Ukrainian economy needs at least 70 billion of investment besides the debt of about the same amount. If you withdraw 150 billion euro from EU economy what's gonna happen to it?Originally Posted by Hanna
To meet EU standards Ukrainian economy needs at least 70 billion of investment besides the debt of about the same amount. If you withdraw 150 billion euro from EU economy what's gonna happen to it?
I'm not sure where the figure 70 mil. comes from, and who can say that with such certainty, but whether it's 30 mil or 70 it's still outside of reach, and yes, I am aware of that. It's too bad the Ukrainians don't seem to be.
So that's what I am saying, Ukrainians need to be realistic and not let the EU paint fluffy pink clouds in front of their eyes.
It's hard to imagine that the current leaders don't understand what the real prospects are. I think they do.
The EU can't solve the problems of much smaller and much older member states, so how could it solve the problems in Ukraine, which are more complex on most levels than what the EU normally faces?
Furthermore; Ukraine would be at the top of the list population- and size-wise in the EU. It's unthinkable that Brussels would shift the balance eastwards that much, unless it knew EXACTLY what it was getting, i.e. the most obedient puppies in the Union. Based on the goings-on in Ukraine, that's just not the nature of that country. The EU cannot risk a situation whereby Eastern and Southern countries would be in majority and could shift the economic policies. Ukraine would tip the balance over the equilibrium.
This just isn't going to happen for hundreds of reasons. There is a union that will take Ukraine as it is, and be happy to welcome it, but it's not the EU and it won't be for 15 years, at least, if ever. That's the reality.
Personally I'd love to have Ukraine in the EU like I always said (at least until the violence started) but it's a political decision and people like me do not decide.
I predict it will NEVER join.
Same as Turkey.
Turkey went along with the EUs games for over a decade, like a rabbit chasing a carrot on a stick. Eventually they realised it was mainly just a game, that they were not treated with respect and nothing would come of all their efforts. So they turned to form alliances with other countries in the Middle East.
Speaking about western ukraine it has some chances to join as an agricultural area like romania or moldova with no industry at all.
Yes, I agree. If they split the country somehow (countries with any border conflicts whatsoever cannot join), and then if they do EXACTLY what Brussels says, for ~10 years, then they can probably join...
Moldova will probably join at some point, but it needs to resolve the Pridnestrovie / Transdniestr situation and upgrade the industry... just for starters.
Lord only knows how Romania got into the EU!
They must have just dropped the actual requirements for some political reasons.
It was sort of underdeveloped in socialism I think, then things got WORSE in the 90s, some Western companies entered the market place (very visible there, with German companies and Italian).
Then suddenly the whole country is in the EU.... Including the gypsies who were the only ones that were ready. "Paris, here I come!"
I have actually never seen anything like Romania in Europe. I didn't think it existed.
Both Belarus and Ukraine are much better developed. Even Moldova, I think ( I visited all these countries in 2011).
I don't think the EU will ever do that again, there has been A LOT of criticism about how Romania and Bulgaria got into the EU in the first place, they were not actually fully qualified.
And the EU has taken them for a ride. They've got nothing to show for their membership so far, other perhaps the property bubble at the coast in Bulgaria. But EU companies are doing great business there.
In Romania, almost everybody seemed to suffer from depression. They thought they were crap and couldn't even believe anybody would want to visit their country.... Can you imagine!
A very large proportion of the population just left for Spain, Italy, the UK, Germany...
It was really tragic. Several completely normal people who had even lived abroad told me that Ceaucescu and socialism was better than how they have it today (as EU citizens). To me, all this was totally unexpected. I thought things were getting better there, and they loved the EU. But the reality was the opposite. And they told me the corruption is horrible.
I was touched, and felt really badly for them. Partly guilty, because I used to be tremendously in favour of EU expansion eastwards, when I was at university in the 1990s. I was even in an organisation that worked for it. But look how it worked out.
To split Ukraine was a plan of all the three - Brussels, Moscow and Washington (some ppl say there's an agreement and all this madness is just perfectly staged). The question was who's going to pay for that. The main ukraine's sponsor Russia seems to quit. EU doesn't have money. The US just doesn't want to pay. We only have to wait what's gonna happen.
The best solution for the US and EU is Russian invasion.... but Putin doesn't seem to follow that.
The keyword here is - gas
If Ukraine splits and nobody invests the western part (east part well keep being funded bu Russia like all last 20 years) it's gonna be the worst times in whole Ukrainian history.
here it means to DEMOLISH the industryand upgrade the industry.
Only those countries got better that had been granted permission to have it's own industry. Ask anybody in e.g. Slovakia is it better in EU or was it better back in 80s? They would tell you the same (but not on camera)Several completely normal people told me that Ceaucescu and socialism was better than how they have it today (as EU citizens). To me, all this was totally unexpected. I thought things were getting better there, and they loved the EU. But the reality was the opposite.
I was touched, and felt really badly for them. Partly guilty, because I used to be tremendously in favour of EU expansion eastwards, when I was at university in the 1990s. I was even in an organisation that worked for it. But look how it worked out.
This is indeed a huge moral dilemma Russia faces. But Putin was very specific that the accretion of the whole Novorissiya to Ukraine and not just two of its constituent regions was the historic blunder. Thus, the task at hand as he sees it is to liberate the rest of the disputed territories, and only then he will accede to embrace the newly fledged province to Russia. The process is in the making now. Contrariwise, once he were to artificially splinter off Donbass from Novorissiya, the remaining part of it would be under severe duress of unmitigated suffering of not being able to satisfy its so much cherished yet unattainable yearning to join Russia. President of Russia simply can’t afford such a myopic stance. How can he explain away his hastiness to future generations?
Oh I didn't know he had said that. So maybe he's waiting. That's quite a game of dare he's playing then.
If he can pull that off, then Russia has well and truly arrived, and Putin will be legend. Completely notwithstanding any ethical considerations, it would be pure genius to get not only Crimea, but the whole "Novorossiya" without meeting any meaningful resistance.
While the US shows the world again and again how utterly incompetent they are att understanding any people at all, outside their own borders. Unless of course the destruction and suffering they are causing is deliberate.
In that case, will Putin draw the line with Pridnestrovie, or not?
That's officially Moldova, a different country, although not NATO and not EU.
(I have actually been in Pridnestrovie, and those people LOVE Russia and they also idolize the Soviet Union. They are not even ethnic Russians, most of them, but they love it anyway. They have big banners all around town in Tiraspol and Bender, saying nice things about Russia... It's a very fascinating place - but does not appear on any map, hence I did not actually know it was there, until I was told I needed a "visa" for it, in order to travel from Kishinev to Odessa. w00t! It turned out to be a quite unique place of very independent minded and cool people. They have something in common with the People's Republics in Lugansk and Donetsk, I think.)
If Putin does NOT plan to do anything more in Ukraine, because he's suddenly decided that he DOES respect the borders of Ukraine, then I think the decent thing to do would be to try to calm things down in Ukraine to the very best of Russia's ability. Washington is right on one question - of course the "people's republics" would listen, if Russia told them in no uncertain terms!
It's not right to let people ruin their own lives, destroy their communities and have lives lost for a hopeless cause. If Putin knows he will never annex, he should try to patch things up within the existing borders, rather than letting things progress any further. Anything else is just spiteful and cruel!
But what about Odessa, at the Westernmost tip of "Novorossiya". It has no people's republic and although they speak Russian, how much do they identify with Russia? Would they really welcome Russia, if that is the end game of all this?
I think that is too extreme a conspiracy....
I know Russia is Conspiracy Central No 1 so all I'll say is, no, hardly likely. It's too far fetched.
And the US can't be trusted, surely Russia knows that by now, and wouldn't make a secret deal with the US, since it normally doesn't keep its end of the bargain. Remember what happened with the NATO expansion promise, and Yalta which was a legit agreement, then suddenly the West backed and started laying claim to areas outside its' agreed area. I don't think Russia would bother making a deal about it, and I think this was relatively unexpected for Russia too.
It might be that there was a scenario prepared and a script to follow for Crimea. Frankly it worked a little "too" well.... but that Russia had not anticipated quite the turn of events that expired in the Donbass. So for Donbass Russia had to improvise. Hence the long silence while Russia was figuring out how to handle it.
I personally think the US thought it could pull this off (get all of Ukraine into their camp) but miscalculated due to poor intelligence, wishful thinking or whatever. Whereupon Russia immediately launched "Get Crimea, scenario No x" and was both skilled and lucky in that it went as well as it did. Which obviously infuriated Washington who had expected to have free reign after it got rid of Yanukovich.
Listening to Victoria Nuland it's obvious that she is cynical and a real player to the core of her being. I hope this whole debacle costs her her career. What an unpleasant and snakey person.
This whole colour / flower revolution thing, is an absolute staple for the US. It tried it tons of times. I read a very entertaining story about a "Jasmine" revolution that was attempted in China. It failed and the US ambassador got kicked out of the country.
When I personally was in Belarus, they tried for the 3rd time, I think, a little orchid (?) revolution but there were not a lot of takers. But the European press was tipped off beforehand and the propaganda angle was insane - filming a crowd of 50 as if it was 5000, and passing off a mobile phone promotion event as a protest meeting. I think they try this every now and then, as soon as there is something that might spur people on, like a this EU decision in Ukraine, or the currency devaluation in Belarus.
My impression is that most of what happened in Donbass was relatively spontaneous, and Russia chose to mildly encourage it, until suddenly it appeared to make a u-turn and pretend it was not involved.
Keeping everybody guessing what will happen next.
Stay tuned for episode 3 of "Madness, Murder and Mayhem in Ukraine", the action continues after this short break!
And what they have next is a presidential election in 1 week or so, after which I hope all the armed freaks wearing masks can be legally erased from existence, and all the Ukrainian civilians can finally breathe a sigh of relief.
The second tour is expected.
A lot of time for Putin to probe other regions whether he can destabilise them
without meeting any meaningful resistance.
The phrase "To split Ukraine was a plan of all the three - Brussels, Moscow and Washington" doesn't necessarily imply a conspiracy it may be just the same goal that matches for all three. And in phrase "some ppl say there's an agreement and all this madness is just perfectly staged" there is some ppl say clause which you might have overlooked and those ppl are not necessarily russian.
No one can be trusted, but. But here Putin went a bit further then before. Russia doesn't want to play bad guy's role any more. And the US cannot do anything about that.And the US can't be trusted, surely Russia knows that by now, and wouldn't make a secret deal with the US, since it normally doesn't keep its end of the bargain. Remember what happened with the NATO expansion promise, and Yalta which was a legit agreement, then suddenly the West backed and started laying claim to areas outside its' agreed area. I don't think Russia would bother making a deal about it, and I think this was relatively unexpected for Russia too.
It might be that there was a scenario prepared and a script to follow for Crimea. Frankly it worked a little "too" well.... but that Russia had not anticipated quite the turn of events that expired in the Donbass. So for Donbass Russia had to improvise. Hence the long silence while Russia was figuring out how to handle it. My impression is that most of what happened in Donbass was relatively spontaneous, and Russia chose to mildly encourage it, until suddenly it appeared to make a u-turn and pretend it was not involved.
All Putin has to do now is just to wait (not invading eastern ukraine, not giving money just doing nothing).
Look at Psaki. I'm afraid the only requirement left for an applicant to get hired in US state departament is to be plain dumb.Listening to Victoria Nuland it's obvious that she is cynical and a real player to the core of her being. I hope this whole debacle costs her her career. What an unpleasant and snakey person.
What it is your recipe how “the armed freaks wearing masks can be legally erased from existence”? Even pro- Ukrainian media outlets don't consider such turn of events feasible.
Корреспондент: Образец законности. Как прошел референдум на Донбассе - Korrespondent.netРеферендум не дал ответа на вопрос, что будет с Донецкой и Луганской областями дальше. Тем временем сепаратистские настроения в регионе усиливаются, и эксперты называют три варианта развития ситуации.
Во-первых, остается шанс на то, что конфликт удастся урегулировать мирным путем.
“Я бы не исключал возможности, что Донбасс останется в составе Украины, но с особым статусом. Например, статусом автономии”, — предполагает глава Центра прикладных политических исследований Пента Владимир Фесенко.
Достичь этого можно только в результате переговоров между центральной властью и местными элитами — тем же миллиардером Ринатом Ахметовым.
Второй вариант — создание квазигосударства.
“Постепенно Донецкий и Луганский регионы превратятся в анклавы по типу Сектора Газа. Это будут захваченные вооруженными людьми территории, где не будет никакой власти — ни центральной, ни местной. И так может продолжаться в течение нескольких лет”, — предупреждает руководитель социологической службы Украинский барометр Виктор Небоженко.
И, наконец, самый худший вариант — продолжение военных действий, превращение Донбасса в территорию долгоиграющей гражданской войны со взаимными жертвами.
“Или еще хуже — превращение Донбасса в Чечню 1990-х годов, когда бизнес и экономика были полностью уничтожены и зарабатывать могли только те, у кого есть оружие, — грабежами, захватом заложников”, — рисует мрачные перспективы Фесенко.
Пока, по мнению политологов, возможны и первый и второй варианты. Как минимум ближайшие несколько месяцев ситуация будет колебаться между непризнанной республикой и автономией. А вот что вряд ли произойдет, так это присоединение Восточной Украины к России, считает Фесенко.
I doubt the civilian people there support any of the sides of the conflict. What it really is is some masked a**holes who want to play a war vs. regular Ukrainian army. It's not a surprise that the latter should demonstrate a bigger ability to smash the enemy than the former one, which is eventually going to happen. It's not very smart to compare the area to Chechnya, as the masked clowns just lack so many attributes the Chechen fighters had.
So on what basis are you saying this?
Are you in Ukraine? Have you got some kind of inside information?
And Chechen fighters are people you admire, judging on the tone of your comment? (Deleted. L.)
As opposed to the forces in Eastern Ukraine that you consider "clowns".
I think you filled today's quota of trolling.
Last edited by Lampada; May 19th, 2014 at 12:37 PM. Reason: Провокационный вопрос. Flaming
By "Chechen fighters" I mean those Chechen residents who took part in the fights in that area. No position or personal attitude have been expressed by what I've said, really. But what I meant is that they were really different compared to the "Donetsk republicans", and whether they were good or evil, they had some ideas, beliefs and combat skills that are helpful in such fights, and that those "Donetsk republicans" don't have. And I mentioned them for the only reason of someone else having mentioned them while addressing me.
I cannot help you with the quotas, maybe the mods can?...
@ Eric. Earlier in another thread you made this comment:
And now you say this:If they ARE backed up by a certain country, and that country does invade in case of a counter terrorist operation, well, then at least everyone will see the real face of that country.
Since the Ukrainian military and police have been very disorganized and are working with very dated equipment then I'm forced to make this conclusion:
If Russia was really training and arming the pro-Russians, the entire Donbas region would probably already be secured by the Peoples Republics.
But they are only a**holes and clowns playing war if you think it's a game. As for me, I believe this is happening in real-life.
The pro-Russians have suffered a lot of casualties and they were driven out of Mariupol by a business man and some steel workers. That wouldn't have happened that quickly if the pro-Russians were trained and well armed troops. Imo, those masked pro-Russians are Ukrainian citizens defending themselves against ethnic abuse.
And yeah, the Chechen "residents" had impressive combat skills and those are skills nobody has without a lot of special training. Imo, Chechnya needs a LOT of watching... That's all I'll say about that since I don't ever like to have to think about Chechens.
@ Hanna. I think I may know what's happening now. President Putin was fine with Ukraine till the protests began on the Maidan in Kiev. His 2 concerns are the welfare of the compatriots and a workable relationship with Ukraine. That may be happening now.
Mr. Poroshenko has 54.7% in the polls for the upcoming election. He's pro-Ukrainian but he did say he would reject NATO and that he would work for the welfare of all the Ukrainian people. Also, he's not an ultranationalist and he does have a lot of his confection business in Russia.
Since President Putin has softened his stand against Poroshenko and also towards the election, this may be somebody Putin can work with. If the elections do move foreward, it's very likely that Poroshenko will win the Presidency.
This situation is definitely worth watching.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/19/wo...ance.html?_r=0
Btw, thanks for the information about Romania and Bulgaria.I didn't know anything about those countries.
Лучше смерть, чем бесчестие! Тем временем: Вечно молодой, Вечно пьяный. - Смысловые Галлюцинации, Чартова дюжина 2015!
Пожалуйста, исправьте мои ошибки. Спасибо.
Have you got ANY proof or supporting facts whatsoever, or did you cook up the most insulting and sinister conspiracy theory on this site so far?
Source to even remotely back any of this, please!
To come to a Russia site, and make comments in favour of Caucasian terrorists is like turning up at an American site and starting to express sympathy for the 9-11 bombers. Rude, insensitive and deliberately provocative.
To compare the situation in Ukraine, with muslim terrorism backed from Saudi Arabia is either ignorant, or a very desperate gripping of straws.
If those are your views, then this is not really the place to air them.
haha ja sure... there is no self-interest of Russia in this at all..
please always correct my (often poor) russian
Let me guess, you're all self-righteous and never do anything for your own profit
You made my dayReinventing the wheel like that again. No one had ever expected this nor had they ever thought that more or less all actions any human did were to sutisfy their needs
I do not claim that my opinion is absolutely true.
If you've spotted any mistake in my English, please, correct it. I want to be aware of any mistakes to efficiently eliminate them before they become a habit.
@ iCake
hmm, it was not exactly me who claimed that Russia is not doing it for their own profit
quite the opposite actually.
i am with you on this one; I am not blaming Russia for pursuing their own interests (and largely support them); i am just against pretending it is 'for the wellbeing of compatriots'
please always correct my (often poor) russian
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