Thread: Economic Sanctions against Russia and Russia’s Retaliatory Trade Measures

http://www.interfax.ru/business/390120

http://rt.com/business/178636-russia...ucts-medvedev/

Russia decided to enter the economic war initiated by USA and EU and formally today.
My personal opinion is that a country with a GDP of 2 trillions dollars cannot fight against countries with total GDP of 37 trillions (EU, USA, Canada, Australia and Norway) even if it is the biggest country by land, the 2nd biggest military power (given it's nuclear power) in the world and it has a permanent seat in the Security Council of UN.
Do you think that this was the right decision from the Russian Government or it was just a "nationalistic firework" in order to disorientate or just to "entertain" the fears of the russian public in front of the imminent and unpreventable financial crisis(*1) in Russia?
Specifically do you think that this move will render pressure to USA and EU to remove the financial sanctions or change policy?
Also, a historical question: During the Soviet Union era (1917 - 1989) were any trade and economic relationships between Soviet Union and Western World?


(*1) The imminent crisis will not be caused of course by the sanctions of the USA or EU. The sanctions constitute from an economic aspect a totally insignificant factor in front of the massive economy of Russia and its rich natural resources. The crisis is caused by the interior macroeconomic policy of Russia and the global financial crisis which started in 2008


P.S. please administrator change the title: "Economic war between Russia and the Western World", because in the everyone else is included also the B(R)ICS which are supporting Russia.

Do you think that this was the right decision from the Russian Government

I think there is no other possibilities left.

If you don't hit back, you're going to be pushed around for the rest of your life

Originally Posted by maxmixiv

I think there is no other possibilities left.

In the last days I am studying the book of Sun Tzu, the "Art of War" and I have collected many "clever lines". Three of them I think apply in the case of Russia:
1. The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.
2. Pretend inferiority and encourage the enemies arrogance.
3. The winner will be the the country that knows when to fight and when not.

Russian government has many other tools to use and the biggest is it's political influence in: (a) China (b) Iran (c) Syria (d) Libya (e) Venezuela (f) Cuba (d) Eastern Europe (e.g. Moldavia, Belarus, Baltics) (e) Central Asia (f) Caucasus (g) Central Africa (h) Pakistan etc.
No need for an economic war with economic superpowers like USA and EU.
I think the most effective tool would have been ignorance and pretending that nothing happens to Ukraine.
Shortly, keep the line of Putin: "What happens in Ukraine doesn't have do to anything with Russia"

Originally Posted by Antonio1986

Russia decided to enter the economic war initiated by USA and EU and formally today.

It looks like an economic war, but i can be something bigger - the end of the global economy as we know it.

Originally Posted by Antonio1986

My personal opinion is that a country with a GDP of 2 trillions dollars cannot fight against countries with total GDP of 37 trillions (EU, USA, Canada, Australia and Norway)

It doesn't work that way. GDP matters if there's a global hot war with massive casualties — how many tanks, traiers, cannons, guns and ammo can you produce, how many ammo can you afford to shoot in every attack and so on.
You probably should calculate GDP per capita and keep in mind that there're a lot of countries that would be happy to take place on russian market - China, India, Turkey, Latin America etc.

Originally Posted by Antonio1986

Do you think that this was the right decision from the Russian Government or it was just a "nationalistic firework" in order to disorientate or just to "entertain" the fears of the russian public in front of the imminent and unpreventable financial crisis(*1) in Russia?

One thing should be clear - Putin is very western-oriented person. He's not willing to give away everything for just words of friendship and support as his predecessors did, but he wants Russia to be a part of the western world. Demarche like this is very uncharacteristic for him. It not pure populism - I'm sure.

Originally Posted by Antonio1986

Also, a historical question: During the Soviet Union era (1917 - 1989) were any trade and economic relationships between Soviet Union and Western World?

There were economic relationships with Germany before WWII (technologies in exchage for resources mainly) and with allies during the war. But after the Cold war had begun relationships stopped. Only with the Warsaw pact countries.

Originally Posted by Antonio1986

In the last days I am studying the book of Sun Tzu, the "Art of War" and I have collected many "clever lines". Three of them I think apply in the case of Russia:
1. The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.
2. Pretend inferiority and encourage the enemies arrogance.
3. The winner will be the the country that knows when to fight and when not.

Russian government has many other tools to use and the biggest is it's political influence in: (a) China (b) Iran (c) Syria (d) Libya (e) Venezuela (f) Cuba (d) Eastern Europe (e.g. Moldavia, Belarus, Baltics) (e) Central Asia (f) Caucasus (g) Central Africa (h) Pakistan etc.
No need for an economic war with economic superpowers like USA and EU.
I think the most effective tool would have been ignorance and pretending that nothing happens to Ukraine.
Shortly, keep the line of Putin: "What happens in Ukraine doesn't have do to anything with Russia"

Everything about that is incorrect or inaccurate. The Russians who replied are in denial (not surprising). Every one of them.

Today, big-talking Putin has sanctions against Canada's imports of food. It will hurt the domestic/farming market in Canada but for Russia, stuff like that will cause inflation and shortages of food. I think Russia should ban food products/imports from every Western country it can. Have fun receiving Chinese food imports? Or wherever they're going to get it. Even if Russia finds other partners, it won't help to choose China instead. Russia will be at a trade disadvantage. They are not sustaining. Putin might want to make Russia into some EurAsian empire but other than getting cheap labour from the Caucasus, their main exports are still the same ones - oil, mining(?), machinery/weapons(?). Also, I believe that imports from agricultural products often came from Ukraine? So, they are in trouble there, too. Expect some economic consequences in those areas that are probably unanticipated or ignored by many Russians who refuse to consider the fallout because they have been taught to avoid criticism of Government policies and bow down to anything the Kremlin does. This is not a 'pro-West' view by any means, it one of realism and a critique of another Government that doesn't sustain itself. Western ones don't either but they are not getting hit with as many sanctions. The reason that the EU was soft on the sanctions is the same reason - they are not sustaining and also invested heavily in the Russian economy so certain entrepreneurs and large companies (read: corporations) didn't want to take the hit.

Specifically do you think that this move will render pressure to USA and EU to remove the financial sanctions or change policy?

Sure, the original calculation of the EU was that the negative impact of sanctions on its own economy would be insignificant, but now it’s a full-scale retaliation with substantial financial losses. Businesses don’t care too much about big politics and, therefore, may try to exert some pressure on governments to fix the issue with "crazy Russians" in order not to lose lucrative markets. This may create additional obstacles for Obama whenever he decides to hurt us even more with the next round of sanctions.

Also, a historical question: During the Soviet Union era (1917 - 1989) were any trade and economic relationships between Soviet Union and Western World?

Yes, we sold gas, oil and metals to the West those days, especially after WWII, exactly as we do now. And we used to buy lots of wheat because communism and agriculture are incompatible.

Originally Posted by 14Russian

Everything about that is incorrect or inaccurate. The Russians who replied are in denial (not surprising). Every one of them. ...

Yours is the wrong way to approach discussion. You are passing judgement on something you have not viewed for yourself firsthand. You might have your opinion, but being so categorical never helps mutual understanding.

Originally Posted by iCake

If you don't hit back, you're going to be pushed around for the rest of your life

To hit "the evil U.S. and EU" even more, somebody offer your government to confiscate all the foreign stuff (e.g. cell phones, laptops, TVs, cars, etc.) every citizen possesses. That will be a decent response by decent political figures, to the sanctions imposed by the evil rest of the world against innocent multi-billionaire state corporations. Yeah. Amen.

Eric C., please don't make more of my words than they are. I didn't say that I supported the action my government had taken. I just said that I believe that they had to do something. I'm not sure the sanctions were the right choice though

in my opinion this will hurt Russia more than the EU

Right now it is not important because many big stores have 1-2 months food supply and by that time situation might change, also Russia limited import from many countries of the EU this winter already, so the sanctions are just continuation of that limit, looks like some kind of strategy. Maybe Russia wants the EU to appeal to WTO where it would also try to question Western sanctions on Russia and lift them.
Something tells me that in September Russia might bring gas "sanctions" on the table.
Russia was always telling that sanctions would hurt both sides, it looks like finally the EU realized that, it's a start.

The title of this thread is over dramatic. It's not a war, it's sanctions. Even the "western world" is questionable but it could pass.

Originally Posted by bytemare

The title of this thread is over dramatic. It's not a war, it's sanctions. Even the "western world" is questionable but it could pass.

Поменяла заголовок. Просьба ко всем, особенно к Антонио, предложить другие варианты, если этот как-то не устраивает.

Originally Posted by Suobig

There were economic relationships with Germany before WWII (technologies in exchage for resources mainly) and with allies during the war. But after the Cold war had begun relationships stopped. Only with the Warsaw pact countries.

Finland (and seemingly India) and the Soviet Union had economic relationships: Bilateral trade - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Just in case I want to remind, that Finland never was a member of Warsaw pact.

I fully support Putin's food embargo from hostile countries. 10% of that imported food is delicacies and other 90% is total cr@p so no big loss. I don't buy any food from hostile contries anyway. The only problem for me was to stop buying Heinz ketchup becausue I used to like it. It's produced in Russia but the company owner is Carry's wife so (Deleted. L.) I stopped buying it. This embargo is a great help for our domestic farmers who was suffering after Russia entered WTO from western cheap crappy products.

Originally Posted by Basil77

I fully support Putin's food embargo from hostile countries. 10% of that imported food is delicacies and other 90% is total cr@p so no big loss. I don't buy any food from hostile contries anyway. The only problem for me was to stop buying Heinz ketchup becausue I used to like it. It's produced in Russia but the company owner is Carry's wife so (Deleted. L.) I stopped buying it. This embargo is a great help fot our domestic farmers who was suffering after Russia entered WTO from western cheap crappy products.

I fully encourage you also to break your iPhone/iPad with a hammer, like one Russian dude already did (and posted the evidence to youtube); it's very unfortunate if your car isn't Lada or Volga, too, coz otherwise you'll have to drown it in a lake. Money account or cash savings in dollars/euros? You'd better do anything to not let comrade Putin find it out, you don't want to let down his great trust in you, do you? And whatever happens, keep one thing in mind, whatever comrade Putin does, he does for the sake of your happiness and prosperity, and he's going to gain or lose from his every decision just the way YOU're going to gain/lose from them.

Originally Posted by Eric C.

I fully encourage you also to break your iPhone/iPad with a hammer, like one Russian dude already did (and posted the evidence to youtube); it's very unfortunate if your car isn't Lada or Volga, too, coz otherwise you'll have to drown it in a lake. Money account or cash savings in dollars/euros? You'd better do anything to not let comrade Putin find it out, you don't want to let down his great trust in you, do you? And whatever happens, keep one thing in mind, whatever comrade Putin does, he does for the sake of your happiness and prosperity, and he's going to gain or lose from his every decision just the way YOU're going to gain/lose from them.

This all sounds like a private message. And could you please stop using this sarcastic tone against members here?

Originally Posted by Eric C.

I fully encourage you also to break your iPhone/iPad with a hammer

I thought China is not under sanctions Anyway you suggestion looks silly, maybe everybody should stop using periodic table, Russian rockets, Russian natural resources and so on, to follow your logic.

The ban definitely looks interesting: it promotes Russian patriotism, supports Russian agriculture, increases involvement of Russia in BRICS and shows the West that sanctions could work in both directions.

But both sides will suffer, for sure.

Originally Posted by Eric C.

I fully encourage you also to break your iPhone/iPad with a hammer, like one Russian dude already did (and posted the evidence to youtube); it's very unfortunate if your car isn't Lada or Volga, too, coz otherwise you'll have to drown it in a lake. Money account or cash savings in dollars/euros? You'd better do anything to not let comrade Putin find it out, you don't want to let down his great trust in you, do you? And whatever happens, keep one thing in mind, whatever comrade Putin does, he does for the sake of your happiness and prosperity, and he's going to gain or lose from his every decision just the way YOU're going to gain/lose from them.

IPhones and iPads are assembled in China. Besides, there are a lot of cheap smart-phones and tablet PCs 100% made by China, so this is not an issue at all. Korean and Japanese cars are not a bit worse than the European ones, and the quality of Chinese cars has improved drastically in recent years, as well as that of lada-make cars. So, it's also is not a threat. Although Japan joined the sanctions it made it very reluctantly and there is no wonder, for Japan cannot stay aside watching the Russian-Chinese convergence.

I have a question to Lampada. The decision of the USA and EU to introduce the sanctions against Russia is obviously connected with the Ukraine situation. Since all of the forum threads referring the political situation in Ukraine are banned on this site, I wonder why this one isn't?