Thread: Crimea joining the Russian Federation and its implications?

Apparently Crimea's parliament voted to join the Russian Federation, and this will be ratified/ voted on in a local referendum in Crimea on 16 March.

I guess we can assume that the population will stand behind this suggestion (correct me if this is wrong!)

The question is: What on earth will Russia do about this?!

What are the possible scenarios for this?

• For South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Pridnestrovie Russia has NOT annexed them, even if they probably wouldn't have minded (not sure what the situation is...)
• So what would be different about this, if anything?
• The propaganda war against Russia is overwhelming at the moment. Will this affect Russia's response?
• Could Russia just reject their request to join the federation?
• How much would it upset the new Ukrainian government, regular people in Ukraine and the West?
• Could this lead to war?

What does Russian media think and

What do people here think?

Russia will ensure the necessary result of the referendum and than Crimean status will be pending for the observable future. That would allow to ignore the necessity of thorough simulation of many aspects of social functioning in Crimea. Putin believes that Russia does not need more of Russia, but Russian militaries need one more offshore colony with no control from any legislation, strong society or even civil buerocracy. So Russian military and government elite will do there what can make problems to do in Moscow while local population will be given some financial support for good behavior and allowed to go on with their private lives.

I think everybody is shocked, more or less. It seems that Russia wants to have more pieces on the table to get out stronger from the subsequent negotiations. We don't know much at this point, but maybe to put more pressure on the EU/US with an option of separating the East Region. As you know, there could be no open discussion about that option in Ukraine as an open attept for that kind of free speech is illegal in the free and fully democratic Ukraine. The Security officers put in custody those who dare to openly speak about that. For example: Задержан лидер пророссийских активистов Донецка Губарев - BBC Russian - Лента новостей

Originally Posted by Crocodile

Задержан лидер пророссийских активистов Донецка Губарев - BBC Russian - Лента новостей

Oh, that is the guy, who headed assault on the Donetsk Regional Administration, beaten and thrown out clerks and was sitting few days in that building saying that he is the authority.
detail_a36b79828be952ccd627fe91d16381d9.jpg
Lenta.ru: Бывший ССС

His real problem is that he went against Akhmetov, the richest man in Ukraine and REAL Donetsk power.

For South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Pridnestrovie Russia has NOT annexed them, even if they probably wouldn't have minded (not sure what the situation is...)
So what would be different about this, if anything?

Sure enough, Crimea will become a part the Russian Federation.

The propaganda war against Russia is overwhelming at the moment. Will this affect Russia's response?

Certainly, the wording “in response” will be rather strong but not that aggressive as you can imagine.

Could Russia just reject their request to join the federation?

Are you kidding?

How much would it upset the new Ukrainian government, regular people in Ukraine and the West?

They will have to put up with the fait accompli in the long run. Khrushchev giveth, Putin taketh away.

Could this lead to war?

Only in case the USA should make such a snap decision as to send its troops to Ucraine

Originally Posted by it-ogo

His real problem is that he went against Akhmetov, the richest man in Ukraine and REAL Donetsk power.

Let's do an experiment, shall we? If you insist the the Security does not care about those who calls on the locals to set a referendum, could you make a huge sign on your door and balcony asking for the local referendum? Referendum can't be that bad, right? You're not a threat to any "аллигарх", so that should be ok.

Usually, when a person is a threat to anybody in power, they 'make him a criminal', by slipping in drugs or something like that, then arresting him and beating the proof out of him during the investigation.

If you go on insisting the security does not care about expressing their opinion in public, I can provide more: [url=http://dumskaya.net/news/sbu-predupredila-prorossijskih-aktivistov-odessy-033327/]СБУ

Originally Posted by diogen_

Sure enough, Crimea will become a part the Russian Federation.



Certainly, the wording “in response” will be rather strong but not that aggressive as you can imagine.



Are you kidding?



They will have to put up with the fait accompli in the long run. Khrushchev giveth, Putin taketh away.



Only in case the USA should make such a snap decision as to send its troops to Ucraine

Super helpful responses, thanks for sharing your thoughts.
Apparently the USA has sent a war ship to the Black Sea. I expect they don't come there very often... or?

As far as I know, such ships are usually only deployed to make a statement.
However they HAVE been used for real, for example in the Gulf Wars.

I can see a scenario where the USA claims they want to "deploy peacekeepers" in Crimea, or something like that to. Although I doubt they would get anywhere near the shores of Crimea if the Russian navy base has anything to say about it....

In the Cold War there was usually stalemate most of the time. But right now, anything can happen. And Crimea is definitely a Queen on the chessboard. Or at least a tower.

I am so upset on behalf of the Ukrainians. All of this must be intolerable.
They have good reasons and every right to be suspicious of Russia. On the other hand, their entire capital is smashed up. *Somebody* orderered the shooting of civilians with sniper rifles. Some yobs are in power who might very well be extreme nationalists, possibly Nazis, and the whole country is about to get into the clutches of the IMF, Washington and Brussels. The poor will get poorer and everything more expensive while everyone helps themselves to anything that's worth any money internationally.

Hard to blame those who resign and think "sod all this, I can't take any more, my grandmother was Russian so just give me a f-ing Russian passport".

Originally Posted by it-ogo

His real problem is that he went against Akhmetov, the richest man in Ukraine and REAL Donetsk power.

Never heard of him but I'll take a wild guess that he is a crook and very corrupt. What's going on with the Imperial uniform? Akhmetov, some kind of Muslim or something? Is he Russian or what?

I'll read the article, but it will take me a while...

Khrushchev giveth, Putin taketh away.

Yes indeed - seems to have been quite a trend with Soviet l eaders, to give Russian land to other Soviet republics!!!

I never knew that this had happened at all, anywhere until recently. I always assumed the Soviet republics were based on actual ethnic groups or traditional borders.

One comment on that referendum:

Options seem to be:

Join Russian Federation
Stay in Ukraine

Wouldn't it be good to have an option for "Independence", or "Wait and decide later" or something?

Or do you think it's better to just be done with it and get a clear yes or no.

Originally Posted by Hanna

Stay in Ukraine

Wouldn't it be good to have an option for "Independence", or "Wait and decide later" or something?

That's wrong information.
The second question is "Crimea gets back to the Constitution of 1992". In fact, it's kinda independence. Ukrainian Nazis (under second president of Ukraine, mr. Kuchma) trampled Crimea's law and the Constitution of 1992 was abrogated. Also, Ukrainian Government ignored results of the referendum of 1991, when the people of Crimea voted for federal status of Crimea.
So, current situation around Crimea (from the direction of Ukraine) is illegal and all this shit is just a result of ignoring the people's wills. The people of Crimea wants to be associated with Russia (no matter in what form).

Crimea will stay with Russia I predict.

Ukrainian Warship Defects To Russia - Business Insider

Originally Posted by DDT

Crimea will stay with Russia I predict.

It might be, but I think there's still slim chances that won't happen and Crimea will become an independent republic. The possible annexation of Crimea by Russia could just as well serve the 'goat' in the subsequent negotiations between Russia, EU and the US. In a way similar to: "Oh, you don't like to extend the autonomy of Crimea calling it the annexation? Ok, let's take a course to the annexation so that you will be happy when we step back to the Crimea becoming independent."

The term 'goat' comes from an old Jewish-Hassidic joke which describes a poor man coming to a Rebe and asking for an advice:

- Rebe, I am so poor and I have many children and live in a small place, there is no space for everybody, so what should I do?
- Do you have a goat?
- Yes, Rebe.
- Ok, take the goat into your house and make it live with you in the house. Come back to me after a week.

After a week the poor guy comes back to Rebe who asks:

- So, how do you do?
- Oh, Rebe, now it is truly terrible with the goat at home, there's no space at all.
- Ok, now take the goat back to the yard and come back to me after a week.

After a week a happy poor guy comes to Rebe and thanks him for his advice:

- Thank you very much, Rebe! Now, my house became much more spacious!

Well who can blame the Crimeans for wanting to avoid crazy nationalists from Kiev, speak their own language and least but not last, some Russian oil money raining over them from Moscow....

Seems Russia has picked up on the fact that it probably doesn't matter if everyone and their dog in Crimea votes "Yes" , the referendum will be called illegal whatever happens.

And that means Crimea is stuck in limbo, or Russia will have to become the number 1 American (and European too) hate object, beating Iran and North Korea, even....

Akhmetov, some kind of Muslim or something? Is he Russian or what?

His nationality is “unspecified”. My best guess he is ½ Jew, ¼ Tatar, ¼ Russian or something even more convoluted.

_http://finance.bigmir.net/budget/32752-Tatarin-Ahmetov-popal-v-TOP-samyh-bogatyh-evreev

Originally Posted by Crocodile

It might be, but I think there's still slim chances that won't happen and Crimea will become an independent republic.

But... an independent Crimea could vote to join NATO and lease Black Sea bases to the US Navy, right? I'm not sure whether it's likely that Crimeans would actually vote that way, but in principle they could -- so would Russia take that risk? Or are you saying that Russia would recognize Crimea's independence only on the condition that Crimea agreed не спать с ВМСами США?

Originally Posted by Throbert McGee

but in principle they could

Based on what I know, presently the vast majority of Crimeans would prefer Russian military to any other military. There's been long history of the military presense of Russians in Crimea. After a few generations, the Crimean Tatars would probaly make the majority of Crimeans, and the Crimean Tatars strongly associate themselves with Turkey. So, if in the future Turkey would still be a NATO member (and there still will be NATO), then yes.

The main reason Crimea would want to join Russian Federation is fear. The fear that one day their capital would be visited by yet another "friendship train" now armed with the weaponry taken from seized arsenals of Ukrainian police forces and stomp their hopes for autonomy privileges to the ground.
I understand their disbelief towards Kiev. The brigands who recently have risen to power via violence and deception now try to teach them about what is legitimate and what isn't. It's actually even hard to take seriously.

First, I consider the interim government in Kiev as illegitimate since the Russian speaking Ukrainians were not included. Also, Crimea has the right to self-determination. I mean, Crimea was part of Russia since the time of Catherine the Great and when Khrushchev gave Crimea to Ukraine in 1954 it wall all part of the USSR. Anyway, I think Crimea would have a better future with Russia and joining the Russian Federation would protect them from NATO and the US. And yeah, President Putin and the Russian parliament would be very happy to accept Crimea as part of Russia.
Btw, I stopped reading western media when the crisis got ugly. It's full of anti-Russian propaganda. Does anyone know what's up with Rossiyskaya Gazeta? When I click the link all I get is something about the site being hacked into. I hope they get back online soon.

Originally Posted by UhOhXplode

Btw, I stopped reading western media when the crisis got ugly. It's full of anti-Russian propaganda.

No kidding... driving me nuts!

Originally Posted by Amy6710

No kidding... driving me nuts!

I can't get over this madness whereby if you want a half way realistic news program about current events / international politics, you have to turn to RUSSIAN media. I know they don't openly criticise Putin at RT or Rossiya 24, but you can turn with confidence to any other international publication for that, so it's not a problem as far as I am concernèd. Or at least, there is a workaround..... Who, alive in 1985 would ever have seen this coming?

RT is better and more innovative and independent journalism than you can get in any British, European or American news channel these days. "Breaking the set" never even mentions Russia, but it would NEVER make it on any other channel.

I don't necessarily WANT to watch RT or Russia 24 and I am definitely no massive fan of Putin, but I can't bear being lied to by corporate media, or even worse, by the BBC or other European state TV, using our actual licence money to manipulate us. As long as RT remains the most truthful international news channel, I will watch it.

Until some native Western European media starts doing balanced reporting, and stops serving US and local corporate interests I guess I am stuck with Russian news channels. And media is getting worse, not better so it will be a while...

Does anyone know what's up with Rossiyskaya Gazeta? When I click the link all I get is something about the site being hacked into. I hope they get back online soon.

There were reports about massive DoS attacks at Russian news sites.

I bet some ignominiously disgraceful Ukrainian hackers are those responsible for these outrageous instances of misdemeanor. The worst is over however, and, hopefully, right now you can get uninhibited access to the site with the link: http://www.rg.ru