Thread: Crimea joining the Russian Federation and its implications?

Crimea will stay with Russia I predict.

Ukrainian Warship Defects To Russia - Business Insider

Originally Posted by DDT

Crimea will stay with Russia I predict.

It might be, but I think there's still slim chances that won't happen and Crimea will become an independent republic. The possible annexation of Crimea by Russia could just as well serve the 'goat' in the subsequent negotiations between Russia, EU and the US. In a way similar to: "Oh, you don't like to extend the autonomy of Crimea calling it the annexation? Ok, let's take a course to the annexation so that you will be happy when we step back to the Crimea becoming independent."

The term 'goat' comes from an old Jewish-Hassidic joke which describes a poor man coming to a Rebe and asking for an advice:

- Rebe, I am so poor and I have many children and live in a small place, there is no space for everybody, so what should I do?
- Do you have a goat?
- Yes, Rebe.
- Ok, take the goat into your house and make it live with you in the house. Come back to me after a week.

After a week the poor guy comes back to Rebe who asks:

- So, how do you do?
- Oh, Rebe, now it is truly terrible with the goat at home, there's no space at all.
- Ok, now take the goat back to the yard and come back to me after a week.

After a week a happy poor guy comes to Rebe and thanks him for his advice:

- Thank you very much, Rebe! Now, my house became much more spacious!

Originally Posted by Crocodile

It might be, but I think there's still slim chances that won't happen and Crimea will become an independent republic.

But... an independent Crimea could vote to join NATO and lease Black Sea bases to the US Navy, right? I'm not sure whether it's likely that Crimeans would actually vote that way, but in principle they could -- so would Russia take that risk? Or are you saying that Russia would recognize Crimea's independence only on the condition that Crimea agreed не спать с ВМСами США?

Originally Posted by Throbert McGee

but in principle they could

Based on what I know, presently the vast majority of Crimeans would prefer Russian military to any other military. There's been long history of the military presense of Russians in Crimea. After a few generations, the Crimean Tatars would probaly make the majority of Crimeans, and the Crimean Tatars strongly associate themselves with Turkey. So, if in the future Turkey would still be a NATO member (and there still will be NATO), then yes.