Thread: Почему распался Советский Союз? Что происходит в Прибалтике, и немного истории

Originally Posted by nulle

Look at Greece - their salaries are higher - and look where such policies got them.
Actually so-called crisis was a good thing - most of population learned a lesson that you cannot live off borrowed money forever - Greeks learned this in a harder way now.
I, for example, live a lot better than during pre-crisis or so-called "fat years" - when credits were easy accessible, real-estate bubble was getting bigger and salaries also were higher.

On this, I agree with you. People and countries should live within their means. I don't know exactly what people's lifestyle is in Latvia but they are not destitute. On the other hand, I see no Ipads, BMW fourwheel drives or expensive designer clothes. That is luxury consumption though, and frankly I am not so sure anyone actually needs any of that.

In Liepaja, I can see that there is not a lot of fancy restaurants (or restaurants at all) and many houses are quite run down. People are dressed ok though, they have cars and things like mobile phones and computers. It's about the same as what I saw in Belarus, only there is (in my opinion) more attractive consumer goods on sale in Latvia. That said, I bought some fantastic value specs and stylish linen clothes in Belarus. And they DO have designer shops etc in Minsk. For example MaxMara one of my favourite designers. I can't make up my mind about what I think is better.

On Belarus being a dictatorship:
1) All the signs are that Lukashenko did actually win the elections although it's true that the state more or less controls national media - and this probably worked in Lukashenko's favour - same principle as in Russia. But since they have free internet access and can get TV from other countries, those who are interested can easily get the other side of the story. Perhaps there was some cheating on the counting, perhaps not. But it seems the majority wants the stability of keeping Lukashenko for the time being.
2) I met plenty of people in BY who said that on the whole, Lukashenko was OK and doing the best he could. I met two women who were quite passionate Lukashenko supporters, not to mention a guy I met at the sanatorium "Belaya Rus". Also, I believe that it' a sign of "better the devil you know" - they are scared of a chaotic revolution and the misery associated with dismantling socialism. I totally respect what they have done. If you went there you'd be surprised. It actually looks better than Latvia, although less good shops. However, I think that Belarus should allow full supervision of the elections by EU and Russian observers next time.

Yes, there are a few people clapping hands and protesting etc. Basically mostly in Minsk, people who are West oriented, hate the government for some specific reason, or would gain financially from a change in the situation. I respect their position and I understand where they are coming from. But I don't actually think they are the majority. Not YET, I should say, perhaps, but who knows?

But what is not reported is that they have a massive pro-government youth movement (voluntary) that is really enthusiastic, most people are a state employees, so they hardly want to bring down the state having seen how that worked out in Russia. ETC!

Being in Latvia has also opened up my eyes for what Swedish (Scandinavian) companies have done in the Baltics and the massive influence in general. I wonder what Baltic people think about it. To some degree the big invasion of Scandi companies must have stifled LOCAL initiatives. Not to mention that the profits leave the country.

The whole country very much has a superficial likeness to Scandinavia. The Narvessen shops and similar, the Swedish banks, and little touches like plenty of cycle lanes everywhere. I LOVE that Latvia is using so much wind power. Big thumbs up for that. But Scandinavians would never treat the Russian speakers the way the Baltics do - not in a million years.

There is a Swedish company that I particularly dislike that seems to have really infiltrated both Belarus and Latvia: Oriflame. I saw lots of Oriflame (makeup) vendors even in Belarus. This company is a scam - they trick people into buying their products to resell and hence make money. But in reality nobody makes money that way, only Oriflame themselves. Most people in Sweden already know that, so I suppose they needed to find some other area to scam.
If you hear of anyone thinking to start using that, talk them out of it!


@Basil77 - I really enjoyed that country comparison site! Thanks for posting the link.
I respect you sticking up for Russia in this thread! Personally I think the Balts need to move on, regardless of who was right or wrong in the 1940s and 1990s (it's complex and there are basically two sides of the story and perhaps no completely objective truth).

Mimino is one of my fave old Russian films. I think it has a rather deep message, really and it's funny with its bizarre serendipity.

Yes, there are a few people clapping hands and protesting etc. Basically mostly in Minsk, people who are West oriented, hate the government for some specific reason, or would gain financially from a change in the situation. I respect their position and I understand where they are coming from. But I don't actually think they are the majority. Not YET, I should say, perhaps, but who knows?

What do you think of those arrests? That looked like people didn't have rights to walk wherever they wished. Everyone who was there was at the risk of being attacked and arrested. You'd been so lucky to leave that country before the attacks started taking place...

Yeah - Hanna - would you like that in Sweden police arrest you simply for going down the street?

On the other hand, I see no Ipads, BMW fourwheel drives or expensive designer clothes.

You should have visited Latvia in 2006 or 2007

But Scandinavians would never treat the Russian speakers the way the Baltics do - not in a million years.

poor oppressed russian speakers
‪9. maija konfrontācija Uzvaras laukumā, Rīgā‬‏ - YouTube
If they are singing that Russia is their fatherland - why they are still here?

It has nothing to do with the past, the USSR. It has to do with right now.

My post was about - why USSR manufacturing died out in 90s.
I completely agree with you that 2009 crisis was not USSR fault.

The powerful economies of the world like in the US, and now in China, do not, and did not take aid loans, and do not go into austerity programs

But now United States have an insane national debt that is getting bigger by 20k $/second
http://usdebtclock.org/
Sooner or later they will need to do something about it...

Originally Posted by Eric C.

What do you think of those arrests? That looked like people didn't have rights to walk wherever they wished. Everyone who was there was at the risk of being attacked and arrested. You'd been so lucky to leave that country before the attacks started taking place...

No, I was there while it was happening, only, I noticed NOTHING.
And certainly, the police paid no attention whatsoever to me, even when I (absentmindedly) crossed the street when the red man was showing. That is actually illegal in Belarus. But they didn't do anything. I passed by the main square (Independence) when some people had congregated there. The police were there, but they weren't doing anything.

I am sure that there ARE people that are being poorly treated in Belarus. But it's not directed at people who don't stick their neck out.
If you want a comparison, consider the university fee riots in London, where lots of people were arrested and beaten up, and anti-globalisation protests were a man was killed by police last year and many arrested. There is not A LOT of difference.

What irritates me the most is that you pretend to be some kind of Belarus expert when in reality you haven't been there and had completely incorrect information when you first commented on it. If a Belarussian comments I would respect his views whatever they were. But you are just mindlessly repeating what you have read on Radio Liberty or whatever...

Originally Posted by nulle

Yeah - Hanna - would you like that in Sweden police arrest you simply for going down the street?

But now United States have an insane national debt that is getting bigger by 20k $/second
U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time
Sooner or later they will need to do something about it...

See above for my comments on police in Belarus.
The papers and people with an agenda blow up the situation in Belarus much more than it deserves.
There is no real nasty regime in Europe, so it gets interesting to blow up "the last dictatorship in Europe" to something that it isn't.
Guide books and similar make a big issue out of it being like the USSR - that is absolute tosh. The USSR must surely have been 10 times more controlling of its citizens, visitors and media than Belarus is. You hardly even notice anything like that going on at all. The only similarity is that they haven't taken down the old monuments, factories etc. It's a modern country, more or less. It's not that different from Ukraine really.

If we really want to "help" the Belarussians, the thing to do, in my opinion, would to help to MAKE SURE that the next election there is fair and square in its execution. Independent foreign observers present during the voting and during the counts. Both from the EU and Russia. Russia has a lot of influence there and could probably get agreement for that from Belarus. If Lukashenko has nothing to hide, and doesn't have to pay for it, then there shouldn't be a problem agreeing to it. If he refuses, then it is rather suspect.

On the USAs debt -- yes... surely this must be the beginning of the end of American empire. I am not a fan of USA foreign policy whatsoever.
Just hope that whatever replaces it won't be worse. Perhaps there'll just be a split / power vacuum. China hasn't really been flexing its muscles yet, and the EU is too split at the moment to try. First thing I'd like to see, is the USA pack up its bases and leave Europe. If the EU needs defence we should take care of it ourselves, together. France and the UK have nukes, that's more than enough.

Originally Posted by Hanna

...On the USAs debt -- yes... surely this must be the beginning of the end of American empire. ...

Originally Posted by Basil77

"I will tell you a little thing, only don't get angry..."

Finance at the national and international level is completely different than at the personal level. Various politicians and economists have been pulling the wool over the eyes of people about this for a long time. They are using something called a fault of composition. .ERRORS OF LOGIC .

Quote-
"5. Division and Composition: Division attributes the properties of the whole among the parts or members. It’s opposite, composition, tries to compose the whole out of the properties or qualities possessed by each of its parts." "How can we love our country and not love our countrymen?"
"It is not going to help the energy crisis to have more people ride buses instead of cars. Buses use more gas than cars."
"Each manufacturer is perfectly free to set his own price on the product he produces. So there can be nothing wrong with all manufacturers getting together to fix the prices of the articles made by all of them." "

...In the case of finance, the finances of the nation are not simply composed of the finances of the individuals, corporations etc, and do not have the properties of the finances of the individuals/citizens/corporations of the nation. Politicians try to fool people into projection, that the finances of the nation are comprehensible to ordinary citizens in the same way that they comprehend their own personal finances.

Adam Smith said the debts of a super power never get paid. Nothing will happen. Try and collect. All the confusion about the debt ceiling in the US is just political theater. Politicians are trying to crush labor and un-tax the rich. To be sure, real pain will be put on the people at the bottom, but it is completely unnecessary. To the nation itself, and the rich and middle classes, it isn't much of anything at all. Just a speed bump.

But then why, according to this theory, does China lend money to he USA? Is it some kind of vicious circle where they have to keep propping it up because the alternative is even worse...? I mean, why else lend to someone who isn't going to pay back? I am sure they have a very good reason for lending that money - they are clearly very shrewd. I've been wondering if the US isn't going to come up with some rhetoric about why their debts to China don't need to be paid... Or what other options do they have?

During the cold war era, all companies in Sweden wanted to do business with the Eastern bloc, because those countries always paid, straight away, no fuss. My dads company did a lot of such business and he pointed that out many times.
All that disappeared straight away in the 1990s though and whole businesses fell down because suddenly they no longer got paid, or even ripped off. I think I read somewhere that they also always paid their foreign debts, but did not have much debt.

I think it's spooky about the US debt though.
If the dollar just crashes, it would not just affect the Americans but everyone else.

Originally Posted by Hanna

On the USAs debt -- yes... surely this must be the beginning of the end of American empire. I am not a fan of USA foreign policy whatsoever.
Just hope that whatever replaces it won't be worse. Perhaps there'll just be a split / power vacuum. China hasn't really been flexing its muscles yet, and the EU is too split at the moment to try. First thing I'd like to see, is the USA pack up its bases and leave Europe. If the EU needs defence we should take care of it ourselves, together. France and the UK have nukes, that's more than enough.

The US aren't actually gonna give this satisfaction to the leftists and commies from around the world. Hanna, could you HONESTLY answer the following question, "how many people in Sweden share your political and economic views?"

Originally Posted by Eric C.

The US aren't actually gonna give this satisfaction to the leftists and commies from around the world. Hanna, could you HONESTLY answer the following question, "how many people in Sweden share your political and economic views?"

I could, but I am not answering any questions from you, since you will not even say which country you are from.

Originally Posted by Hanna

No, I was there while it was happening, only, I noticed NOTHING.
And certainly, the police paid no attention whatsoever to me, even when I (absentmindedly) crossed the street when the red man was showing. That is actually illegal in Belarus. But they didn't do anything. I passed by the main square (Independence) when some people had congregated there. The police were there, but they weren't doing anything.

Well, from what I know, really aggressive attacks started from 6/22, including that day. Was it when you were there?

Originally Posted by Hanna

If the dollar just crashes, it would not just affect the Americans but everyone else.

That's true. But also, it won't crash until the US themselves really want it. The dollar stability is kept by almost everyone's belief outside the US.

the debts of a super power never get paid. Nothing will happen. Try and collect

Superpower can rapidly become a 3rd world country - that happened to USSR.
USA also are not guaranteed to last forever.

And US are paying interest on their debt all the time - if they stop - no one will lend them any more.

It's a really interesting comment Nulle.... something for all countries to remember.
But I'd have to say that I don't think the Baltics, Belarus, Ukraine and Russia are third world.
Maybe for a year or two in the 1990s at the most. But I suppose that depends on what the criteria for being a third world country is.

@Eric, I was still in Belarus on the 22nd. I didn't find out about the problems until I read about it on the BBC.

Originally Posted by Hanna

But then why, according to this theory, does China lend money to he USA? Is it some kind of vicious circle where they have to keep propping it up because the alternative is even worse...? I mean, why else lend to someone who isn't going to pay back? I am sure they have a very good reason for lending that money - they are clearly very shrewd. I've been wondering if the US isn't going to come up with some rhetoric about why their debts to China don't need to be paid... Or what other options do they have?
...I think it's spooky about the US debt though. If the dollar just crashes, it would not just affect the Americans but everyone else.

Think about it, the nations of the world are now running fiat currencies, un-backed by gold or anything else. As a result of the 'financial crisis' the US, EU, China UK etc all had to go into some kind of QE to keep things from unwinding. All currencies are being inflated in a sort of sloppy but coordinated way. Thus parity is not in any real danger. The USD is not dropping out of sight, or crashing. Why did/does China lend to the US? Think back to the industrial expansion of China. China used the demand from US for cheap products to stimulate industrial expansion. This required that they get on the USD bandwagon. Once started, it is hard to get off. China is pushing currency swaps with other nations now, and this will gradually reduce the demand for USD as reserves over time. Not catastrophically, not drastically.

Originally Posted by nulle

Superpower can rapidly become a 3rd world country - that happened to USSR.
USA also are not guaranteed to last forever.

And US are paying interest on their debt all the time - if they stop - no one will lend them any more.

The US is rolling debt over. Not paying it off. It is the t-bill standard. In reality the debt is not being payed, because the central banks that are caught in the loop cannot do anything with the dollars and t-bills they have except recycle them with the US treasury. Central banks that have USD/t-bills cannot buy anything with them. The US has no intention of stopping the rolling over of treasuries. But it is not really paying off the debts. Again this is the 'fault of composition' thing. You can do something with USD if you have it, and buy something. The central banks that have USD cannot buy anything with them, except exchange them for t-bills and they can sell/swap USD for other currencies, and they are doing some of that. But purchase of US assets is forbidden. Only in special, select cases can anyone outside of US buy US assets. Buying consumer goods by individuals is completely different, and allowed.

"Superpower can rapidly become a 3rd world country - that happened to USSR. USA also are not guaranteed to last forever." And how is that going to happen?

Originally Posted by Hanna

But I'd have to say that I don't think the Baltics, Belarus, Ukraine and Russia are third world.

You said it as if you would be some kind of exception So, do all people in Sweden think that we are third world? ;D

In reality the debt is not being payed

I said that they pay interest, not debt itself...

Originally Posted by mergike

You said it as if you would be some kind of exception So, do all people in Sweden think that we are third world? ;D

What are you talking about? I said that these countries are NOT third world and I have certainly never thought that they were and nobody in Sweden or anywhere else thinks that. Read what I wrote again. And read Nulle's comment before mine - he seems to be saying that the USSR became 3rd world. I don't agree with that.

It used to be "2nd world", but that expression was never actually used, although the idea was that the European socialist economies were "2nd world". Pretty much everything else in Africa and most of Asia was considered developing countries and/or third world. Perhaps these terms are getting outdated now.

How to categorise the ex - socialist countries in the 1990s and now (1st, 2nd, 3rd) I really don't know - you are probably better placed to say how you would categorise it.

I seems that this time it‘s me who made a mistake. I‘m sorry for this misunderstanding.
Anyway I‘m not going to categorise which countries of former Soviet Union could be 1st, 2nd or 3rd world. Of course, Baltics are not already as much advanced as some other west Europe countries, but I still think that we are really far away from third world... ‪Lithuania Presentation [Long Version]‬‏ - YouTube

P.S. this video was made before economical crisis in Lithuania started, this is why it‘s said that Lithuania has been showing steady economical growth for more than 10 years. Of cource, when crisis started there was a fall of GDP in Lithuania and a lot of people lost their jobs but I can‘t agree that in Baltic states there was downright deadly crisis which was more devastating and severe than let‘s say in Greece (as it was said in one of the articles to which Sareph posted a link) And personally I don‘t think that any of Baltic states will face such things what Greece are facing right now.

he seems to be saying that the USSR became 3rd world. I don't agree with that.

Baltic states did not - Russia on the other hand...

Originally Posted by nulle

I said that they pay interest, not debt itself...

Actually, the US can cancel or default on a part of it's debt, without any problems, no interest rate problems, no foreign exchange problems, no problems of any kind. Every country on the planet can cancel or default on some of their debt. It is directly related to the ability to have high marginal tax rates for the highest tax brackets. Look at the picture, from Income tax in the United States - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
For many years, the US had high tax rates for the highest income earners. It did not harm the economy, nor the rich. The ability to do this exists in every country. This is directly connected to the ability to selectively default (or cancel) on some debt, with absolutely no consequences. Every country can do this. This means that they can also get out of even paying some of the interest. That is why the debt crisis is completely irrelevant theater. It is a big yawn. The rich don't want you to know this, because they use it in politics to crush labor..
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.But what do we get? We get... "What we get instead of a responsible and progressive tax policy or trimming of the defense budget is the steady drumbeat of debt panic, with loud demands to cut social services, shrink pensions and pay, and, oddly enough, provide additional tax reductions for the well-to-do. This debt panic has become the driving argument for a ferocious assault on workers. Class war is being waged, and sensing victory, the owning class is taking no prisoners." from http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=25754
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