Thread: fear

Originally Posted by Serge_spb

Black Thursday...

Based on inflation only 1 USD should be 62 RUR by now, so IDK why people complain about it so much
Ruble was a fiction for a long time, now it is time to get real. It's gonna be painful at the beginning but at the end ruble will be much more stable and respectful in the world

Originally Posted by hddscan

Based on inflation only 1 USD should be 62 RUR by now, so IDK why people complain about it so much
Ruble was a fiction for a long time, now it is time to get real. It's gonna be painful at the beginning but at the end ruble will be much more stable and respectful in the world

1 Euro is about 60 RUB but it was 40 RUB last year. So, your logic is a fairy tale. Keep on believin' - dance to the song?

http://en.itar-tass.com/economy/758549

Originally Posted by 14Russian

Yes, Russia is fine, economically, sure. Also, the inevitable massive trade deficit with the Asian bloc (i.e. China etc.) won't hurt either.

I think - no, I know - the views you post are the most NEGATIVE views I've ever seen. Imo, if you had any power in the US, during the Great Depression, the people woulda overthrown the US government and annexed the country to Russia.
I seriously doubt that a few economic hardships are enough to demand a new color revolution - even in the US during the Great Depression.
Btw, the American people survived that depression without any revolution.

Originally Posted by Eric C.

Your rulers who in fact brought those "temporary" hardships on you with their headless military games will, however, keep enjoying their lives just as before, and won't give a darn about any of you, but many of you still think they are great. Your rulers couldn't dream of a better crowd. Though, if the majority of you guys thought the way the OP does, your country might just have a chance.

By the way, as one popular Soviet joke said, "The only permanent thing in the Soviet Union is the temporary hardships."

The only permanent thing in the US is the temporary hardships. Now you can quote me.
If you think Obama, Biden, Kerry, McCain, or the corporations or anyone else among the American oligarchs really care about the common American, go home you're drunk.
I've seen horror stories about people working in the US 48 hours or more each week and living in their cars because they cant afford an apartment. New Orleans and Detroit are bankrupt and Chicago could easily be next. Have you seen Detroit, Chicago, or any other major US cities lately. My advice is to rent bodyguards and buy an AK-47 before you go.
And forget the homeless people in the US. The states are creating new laws to prevent charity groups from feeding them and many of them are just tossed in jails - for being poor in the US.
And forget peaceful demonstrations - unless the city grants you a permit but then your demonstration will be where they tell you to have it (always where nobody can see it).

The only enemies of Russia are the people creating the sanctions - not President Putin. And theres no proof that the color revolution in Ukraine - and the resulting sanctions - aren't both just a planned aggression against Russia... and Putin.
Imo, the West will remain a serious threat until Russia has altered it's economy to resist foreign economic aggressions. The reason for the threat? Russia is advancing on the world stage and that's unacceptable. The West would be way happier if Russia became a 3rd world disaster like Romania. Tbh, the western powers don't give a **** about the Russian people - it's all about power and greed.

So yeah, if the Russian people want to become 2nd class citizens in a 3rd world ****hole then they should rise up against their leaders. That's the best path to their own destruction.
The American people have remained loyal through depressions, wars, ethnic violence, droughts, plagues, etc etc. I am totally confident that the Russian people have the courage to do the same.
Btw, this isn't entirely directed at you (since you've shown to be receptive sometimes to opposing views in the past). I just got off on a rant.

Originally Posted by diogen_

Why does he need all that after all? Why is he so extremele unhappy with the existing and very loyal to him population that his clique covertly designs such a “global cleansing” plan?
If the situation is so debilitating for Russia as you write here why an American leading energy expert is so afraid of Putin’s challenge? (N1 Amazon.com bestseller in Oil & Energy Industry at the moment).

The Colder War: How the Global Energy Trade Slipped from America's Grasp: Marin Katusa

Thanks for the heads up. I want that book.

Originally Posted by 14Russian

Serge, what do you think of the recent deal with China? I think Putin should be called out by more people there now. It's just insanity... a worse deal than with Europe OR Ukraine...not to mention Russia has to build the infrastructure to no cost to China. Then Russia is providing cheap gas at China's price request. Putin is gutless just like any other government leader but he's using Kremlin propaganda to sell it as some sort of victory... LOL. I empathize, honestly. It's really serious and unfunny, actually.

Yeah it's such a bad plan. The car company had to build it's own factory to make cars. The customers shoulda built the factory for them.
If people want cars then they should build the factory and give it to the corporation like a gift. Then buy the cars when they make them. How many factories have Americans built and paid for, just to give them to somebody else? If there's any logic in your idea, I totally missed it.

A little off-topic but something I've noticed: When I read western media sources, I always feel confused and a little depressed. But when I read similar content in Russian media, it gets me happy and feeling positive about life. Dunno. Maybe it's just me but it is an interesting phenomenon.

Originally Posted by UhOhXplode

Yeah it's such a bad plan. The car company had to build it's own factory to make cars. The customers shoulda built the factory for them.
If people want cars then they should build the factory and give it to the corporation like a gift. Then buy the cars when they make them. How many factories have Americans built and paid for, just to give them to somebody else? If there's any logic in your idea, I totally missed it.

A little off-topic but something I've noticed: When I read western media sources, I always feel confused and a little depressed. But when I read similar content in Russian media, it gets me happy and feeling positive about life. Dunno. Maybe it's just me but it is an interesting phenomenon.

I'm not surprised 'you missed it.'(Deleted. L.) The point is about Russia's decisions and Putin going on his knees to get a deal done with China. The conditions are unfavourable to the country and the expenses just make it that much worse. China wins out on the insane conflict between Ukraine and Russia. I still predict Russians will be protesting eventually because the propaganda chest-beating will only work for so long. As for the rest of your reply, I won't waste my time.

I'm not surprised 'you missed it.'(Deleted. L.) The point is about Russia's decisions and Putin going on his knees to get a deal done with China. The conditions are unfavourable to the country and the expenses just make it that much worse.

AFAIK the deal with China hasn’t been finalized yet. The price ,etc. are negotiable, and only the framework agreement about sides’ intentions to build a second pipeline was signed, and some ballpark figures about the total size of the future deal were outline so far. Bloomberg believes it's American, Canadian, and Australian companies should complain, not the Russians. Hence, “Putin going on his knees” sounds like a pretty strong metaphor. What "expenses" specifically make you so unnerving about the deal?

Russia-China Gas Accord to Pressure LNG in Canada, Australia - Bloomberg

Originally Posted by 14Russian

1 Euro is about 60 RUB but it was 40 RUB last year. So, your logic is a fairy tale.

IDK if you pretend or you really don't understand but I'll explain.

Since January 2004 till January 2013 you could have bought 1 USD for 30 RUR, source - USDRUB=X Interactive Stock Chart | Yahoo! Inc. Stock - Yahoo! Finance

Since January 2004 till January 2013 combined inflation in Russia summed up to 129%, source - http:// уровень-инфляции.рф/инфляционные_калькуляторы. aspx
For the same time period inflation in the US was 23%, source - Inflation Calculator | Find US Dollar's Value from 1913-2014

Difference between inflation in Russia and the US is 106%, so based on inflation, 1USD should cost 62 RUR

OMG. Sigh.

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame...rols-Next.html

Russia's Ruble Value Is Collapsing Due to Sanctions, Stagnation | New Republic

Forty Percent of Russians Don't Know Why Ruble's Value Is Plummeting | Business | The Moscow Times

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/busine...ts/508414.html

http://www.vox.com/2014/11/10/717564...-ruble-economy

The value of your currency is sinking... and falling against the U.S. dollar is bad since the Amercan dollar isn't too great either The one article shows many don't understand what's going on so I can see why you might be confused.

Originally Posted by 14Russian

The one article shows many don't understand what's going on so I can see why you might be confused.

Let's review my first statement, shall we?

Based on inflation only 1 USD should be 62 RUR by now

Then, I showed some math, it simple, really, just bear with me for a second

Difference between inflation in Russia and the US is 106%, so based on inflation, 1USD should cost 62 RUR

And again my point is that if you take inflation as a measurement tool then you have the numbers from above.

And since ruble exchange rate has not changed for almost 10 years it comes to my second statement

Ruble was a fiction for a long time, now it is time to get real

Some conclusions:
1. It does not mean that inflation should be the only measurement tool but it's one of them
2. Russian central bank spent billions of dollars to support ruble value on external market and it's costly
3. Current situation with sanctions and oil prices makes it unreasonable for Russia to continue spending billions of dollars to support ruble
4. Now it is time to make some corrections in ruble value and it will be going down
5. People should be thankful that 1 USD is not 70 RUR

Originally Posted by 14Russian

I'm not surprised 'you missed it.'(Deleted. L.) The point is about Russia's decisions and Putin going on his knees to get a deal done with China. The conditions are unfavourable to the country and the expenses just make it that much worse. China wins out on the insane conflict between Ukraine and Russia. I still predict Russians will be protesting eventually because the propaganda chest-beating will only work for so long. As for the rest of your reply, I won't waste my time.

Obama goes on his knees - I think he lives on his knees. Putin stands or sits in a chair.
And btw, the propaganda chest-beating will only "work for so long" for the Obama administration. Americans are already waking up to the truth.
Oh, and thanks for not "wasting your time" on the rest of my reply. It saves me from having to waste my time on yours... IF I even wanted to. I've been spending most of my free time in Virtual Russia and I totally avoid most distractions from that.

But this thread reminds me of 2 movies I recently watched - Брат 2 и Сталинград. Especially the first one - some things Danila said to Mennis before he went back to Russia:

Вот скажи мне, американец, в чём сила? Разве в деньгах? У тебя много денег, и чего? Я вот думаю, что сила в Правде.

But even if you really believe that money is power, then what is Vladimir Putin's net worth if the Ruble collapses? You can't separate President Putin - or anyone in the State Duma - from the Russian people.
No. Whatever President Putin is doing, he is doing for the Russian people and for himself. Russia IS united.
Fear without courage is defeat. Fear builds the courage and strength that people need to face the source of their fears and endure the obstacles they need to overcome.

As for me, I'm not unnerved by anything President Putin - or the Russian people - do. Why? Because Time of Troubles. Because Ivan. Because Stalingrad. Because I know the Russian people have more than enough courage to deal with the problems the stupid sanctions are creating. They survived the Battle of Borodino, the Seige of Sevastopol, and the Battle of Stalingrad etc etc... So I know they will survive a temporary dip in the economy. The Bear is battling a mouse.

I'm playing a video game, nomming cookies and hot cocoa, adding details to my map of Russia, doing homework, and posting. That's called multi-tasking. If you're multi-tasking too then maybe you won't need this link.
Stress and Blood Pressure
Getting over-emotional when discussing a topic is not a good sign.

Originally Posted by diogen_

AFAIK the deal with China hasn’t been finalized yet. The price ,etc. are negotiable, and only the framework agreement about sides’ intentions to build a second pipeline was signed, and some ballpark figures about the total size of the future deal were outline so far. Bloomberg believes it's American, Canadian, and Australian companies should complain, not the Russians. Hence, “Putin going on his knees” sounds like a pretty strong metaphor. What "expenses" specifically make you so unnerving about the deal?

Russia-China Gas Accord to Pressure LNG in Canada, Australia - Bloomberg

That explains a lot. I thought the Russia-China gas deal was being attacked, in the west, only because of jealousy but obviously there's more to it than just that.

Originally Posted by hddscan

Some conclusions:
1. It does not mean that inflation should be the only measurement tool but it's one of them
2. Russian central bank spent billions of dollars to support ruble value on external market and it's costly
3. Current situation with sanctions and oil prices makes it unreasonable for Russia to continue spending billions of dollars to support ruble
4. Now it is time to make some corrections in ruble value and it will be going down
5. People should be thankful that 1 USD is not 70 RUR

There's nothing out there that supports your statements, though.

Most economic/financial reports indicate Russia is heading for recession and further devaluation of the ruble. This isn't some inevitable correction. It's a number of economic problems worsening or being exacerbated because of the sanctions and oil prices decreasing. Also, one article I posted presented the point about exports/imports in which Russia is losing at that game even when you factor in Russia's (gas).

(Deleted. L.) I don't if the 80% approval rating for Mister Putin is accurate but regardless of what it really is now, I suspect that will be on its way down in the near future. Even with propaganda, there will come a point in which Russians notice the problems when they become directly applicable and the 'blame on the West' will eventually get old. Especially, when Putin and friends still occupy their considerable wealth.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...ssion-currency
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/who-are-win...llapse-1473356
http://www.bloombergview.com/article...nancial-crisis

Originally Posted by 14Russian

There's nothing out there that supports your statements, though.

On the contrary, there is plenty.
Russia is raiding its reserves to goose the ruble’s rally – Quartz
Russia's Central Bank Abandons Its Fight to Support the Ruble - WSJ
Russian central bank to stop burning reserves on supporting ruble, takes aim at speculators - 11/10/2014 10:48:20 AM | Newser

Originally Posted by 14Russian

Most economic/financial reports indicate Russia is heading for recession and further devaluation of the ruble. This isn't some inevitable correction. It's a number of economic problems worsening or being exacerbated because of the sanctions and oil prices decreasing. Also, one article I posted presented the point about exports/imports in which Russia is losing at that game even when you factor in Russia's (gas).

As I wrote before, it will be rough couple of years. Not only for Russia though.

Originally Posted by 14Russian

Even with propaganda, there will come a point in which Russians notice the problems when they become directly applicable and the 'blame on the West' will eventually get old.

Actually, even western mainstream media start to acknowledge the “oil conspiracy” against Russia and Iran. Obama is willing to sacrifice his own oil industry in order to harm Russian economy and preserve his bloated but brittle ego.))

Think about how the Obama administration sees the state of the world. It wants Tehran to come to heel over its nuclear programme. It wants Vladimir Putin to back off in eastern Ukraine. But after recent experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan, the White House has no desire to put American boots on the ground. Instead, with the help of its Saudi ally, Washington is trying to drive down the oil price by flooding an already weak market with crude. As the Russians and the Iranians are heavily dependent on oil exports, the assumption is that they will become easier to deal with.

Stakes are high as US plays the oil card against Iran and Russia | Larry Elliott | Business | The Guardian

Originally Posted by hddscan

On the contrary, there is plenty.
Russia is raiding its reserves to goose the ruble’s rally – Quartz
Russia's Central Bank Abandons Its Fight to Support the Ruble - WSJ
Russian central bank to stop burning reserves on supporting ruble, takes aim at speculators - 11/10/2014 10:48:20 AM | Newser

How do those articles dispute what I posted? The last even acknowledges various serious problems like inflated prices.

Originally Posted by diogen_

Actually, even western mainstream media start to acknowledge the “oil conspiracy” against Russia and Iran. Obama is willing to sacrifice his own oil industry in order to harm Russian economy and preserve his bloated but brittle ego.))

Stakes are high as US plays the oil card against Iran and Russia | Larry Elliott | Business | The Guardian

So, it's Obama's fault for Russia's economic problems? LOL! Obama has his own problems at home. But, it has nothing to do with Russia. All I was saying is that Russia was heading towards economic decline amid a number of various problems (it was inevitable even before the sanctions) but it was even exacerbated by the sanctions and the intervention with Ukraine. With the sanctions and 'tough attitude' (more like fascade or phony stubbornness), the government (Putin et al.) have sacrificed Russians' economic prospects and conceded a lopsided deal with China plus sacrificing lives literally with the conflict in Eastern Ukraine. I figure that some of the Putin supporters will eventually change their outlook when these problems have a more personal consequence for them.

Originally Posted by 14Russian

How do those articles dispute what I posted?

How do you manage to dispute my statements then?

Obama has done - and is still doing - everything possible to weaken Russia and create civil unrest. He doesn't care about the American people or the "problems at home".
Food prices are rising dramatically each week at the stores in the US. Does Obama care? LOL! I seriously doubt that.
And now with a totally Republican Congress he's a Lame Duck. Imo, he was always a Lame Duck... and a warmonger.

Cold War: a state of political hostility between countries characterized by threats, propaganda, and other measures short of open warfare, in particular.

So what is there about all this that doesn't look like a Cold War... started by the US and the west?
Btw, President Putin was greeted by cheering crowds in Brisbane... Just so you know.

"But even if you really believe that money is power, then what is Vladimir Putin's net worth if the Ruble collapses? You can't separate President Putin - or anyone in the State Duma - from the Russian people.
No. Whatever President Putin is doing, he is doing for the Russian people and for himself. Russia IS united."
(Deleted. L.) It is a waste of time to discuss this further. The facts are supplied by those articles which demonstrate the serious economic troubles Russia is having and continue to hurt ordinary Russians who are victims of the Putin administration's greed and quest to maintain power. At least, everything they are doing is backfiring. It's just sad that the citizens are the ones harmed.

Originally Posted by 14Russian

(Deleted. L.) It is a waste of time to discuss this further. The facts are supplied by those articles which demonstrate the serious economic troubles Russia is having and continue to hurt ordinary Russians who are victims of the Putin administration's greed and quest to maintain power. At least, everything they are doing is backfiring. It's just sad that the citizens are the ones harmed.

That's a good definition for any government on the planet... including the US and the EU.
Tbh, if I told my neighbor's wife that her husband was abusive, greedy, and cruel - and that he was just using her and that she should leave him - then her husband would probably slam my head into a brick wall. And I wouldn't blame him if he did.
I think it's okay to offer CONSTRUCTIVE advice if there is a real problem but pushing a divorce is NOT constructive.
In the end, it's the wife's decision how she should deal with her problems. It's also the Russian peoples' decision how to deal with their problems.
Also, they know their leaders 1000x better than we do.

Imo, Russia and Putin will survive everything that's happening.
Also, considering the problems Russia is facing, I think the best American response would be to focus on OUR OWN problems. We have tons of those to deal with already. And with a Lame Duck President, our problems will only get worse.

Originally Posted by 14Russian

Russia is having and continue to hurt ordinary Russians who are victims of the Putin administration's greed and quest to maintain power. At least, everything they are doing is backfiring. It's just sad that the citizens are the ones harmed.

Ah, American sense of superiority and "chosen nation" might be spreading to Canada. Maybe there is something in water.
Good thing that Russia has good air defense, otherwise "democracy" would have been already delivered by air, as we have seen in the Middle East.
There is a Russian saying: "без мыла в душу лезть", some people prefer stronger analog. That's about you too, I guess

I've been wondering how many Americans even have a soul. Or a conscience. Or even logic. Without those things, I don't think it's possible for a country to change and get better.
This year I changed up how I post at American forums. Before that, I only posted about music, skateboards, school stuff, video games, tech, spaceflight, and sports - never politics or world events. But this year I've been supporting the Russian position in the "current events" threads. My popularity was seriously damaged at those forums and now a lot of my online friends won't even talk to me. But I learned a lot by posting in those threads.

It's very obvious how much most Americans and American politicians care about the Russian people:

"The events in Odessa that led to the deadly fire in the trade union building dramatically underscore the need for an immediate de-escalation of tensions in Ukraine. The violence and efforts to destabilize the country must end. We again call for the immediate implementation of the commitments made in Geneva on April 17," the U.S. Department of State said in a statement on Friday.

They condemned the unarmed protesters for creating the violence but they never condemned the people that burned them alive.
And who supported the negotiations that led to the long-term ceasefire? Clue - it wasn't America.
And who sent humanitarian aid convoys to the civilians that have been suffering in Donetsk and Lugansk? Clue - It was never America.
And who supported NATO exercises in western Ukraine during the ceasefire? Clue - America.
And who supports political oppression in Eastern Ukraine? Clue - America.

As for me, I do have a conscience and I don't agree with anything our country is doing to Russia. It's ethically and morally wrong.
Our country knows that it won't have a serious effect on the Russian leaders. But it also knows that it can damage the Russian people.
So yeah, if anyone wants to know how much America cares about the Russian people then just look what our country is doing to your economy. And just look at how little our country cares about your compatriots in eastern Ukraine.
Imo, President Putin is million times better than anything America has to offer the Russian people.