Thread: The end.

Originally Posted by hddscan

Рубль падает по двум причинам:
1. падение цены на нефть
2. отсутствие интервенций со стороны ЦБ
сейчас курс нестабильный, но думаю где-то 60-65 будет стабильно в 2015-м

кстати наблюдения показывают что санкции тут не причем
Доллар в начале года - 33р
Доллар в середине марта - 36р. (Крым случился, санкции ввели, нефть 95)
Доллар в середине июня - 33р (еще санкции, нефть 9
Доллар в сентябре - 36р. (нефть 95)
Доллар в отябре - 39р. (нефть 85)
Доллар в ноябре - 47р (нефть 70)

Если кто-то хочет возразить, что дескать нефть падала ниже 40 в 2009-м и было все ок, то я отвечу, что в 2008-2009 ЦБ потратил примерно 100-200 миллиардов вечнозеленых на поддержку курса рубля, тогда как в 2014-м всего 44 миллиарда за весь год, и прекратил это делать с конца октября, объявив 5 ноября, что официально прекращает сдерживание, 10 ноября вышло постановление ЦБ об отмене границ валютной корзины

В общем-то логично.

Но санкции разве имеют мгновенный эффект?
И прогнозы по курсы - то еще дело...

Originally Posted by hddscan

надо его люстрировать

"люстрировать" - откуда это противное слово взялось? Не хотелось бы здесь его легализировать.

Originally Posted by Antonio1986

Answers based on my understanding as a foreigner with minimal understanding of the actual situation in Russia, but with desire to learn about it:

The 36% of the GDP is really based on heavy industry, but the significant part of it are oil-gas, and as you can see we don`t export much of anything else



Steel exports are 8 % and machines - 6 %, food 4 % and that`s it, now it can be suggested that the current situation (in 2014-2015) might be even worse. Since everyone hates us. Like Ukrainians who intentionally boycott our food.

Don`t be naive about our military power. The old technologies still might be interesting for some 3rd-world countries but even this is starting to decay. You can learn that almost half of rockets literally will never reach its target (check Статистика испытаний советских и российских БРПЛ https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%91...5%D1%82%D0%B0) - section "успешные"). Russians are good at showing their flabby muscles and rusty rockets, but it`s not about the amounts of tanks you have, but how modern they are. By the way... When you check wikipidea lists - you probably get impressed about the number of military personell and tanks, but the secret is that Russia can barely protect it`s own borders. Only ~35 thousand out 1 million soldiers are professionals, everyone else are rookies recruited due to our conscription who often don`t even have a chance to practice their shooting skills at least once during 12-months service. Concerning tanks... only god knows how many we actually do have and which are ready to be used. Same with airplanes - interceptors fall from time to time during tests (recently Mig-29 fell in Moscow suburbs Истребитель МиГ-29 упал в ста метрах от здания школы в Подмосковье - Первый по срочным новостям — LIFE | NEWS).

Space industry is over for Russia as well - google it. It`s not competitive any longer. We don`t have such guys like Elon Musk (he is a real Steve Jobs in space industry in case you haven`t heard of him). Our oligarchs who came to their fortunes by nationalisation and other semi-legal schemes don`t have much of a talent in order to develop something unique. Promises to creat a brand new russian vehicle are forgotten. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yo-Mobile "Ё-мобиль") But I don`t blame them... Russia is definetely no the best soil to organize a multimillion businesses because you can loose it at any moment and get behind bars when someone wants to tackle it using his political or executive power.

Russia is corrupted, but USA and China has biggest inequality on income based on the Gini Coefficient. Perhaps USA has more poor people per analogy of population than Russia.

- yeah, tell this to Russians, test your destiny... Again, you`ve heard about "USA inequality" but that`s a complete joke. You haven`t seen the reality yet. Millions of Russians work as teachers, doctors, in sales, on factories (of those great heavy industries you mentioned)... just for less than 200-300 $ \ month. Some come to Moscow for earnings, working 45 days in retail large stores (like french Auchan), doing $800 for that period, spending 12-14 hours on legs. Don`t forget that prices on food in Russia are higher than in USA since we import the majority of it. At the same time some made multimillion (or billion) fortunes just in several years without working hard, by just finding themselves at the right plce on the right time.

These countries cannot be compared with Russia, because they are protectorates of the Big Powers (new colonies).

- of course they can be compared. We started under same conditions 20 years ago. Their economies used to be damaged by our communist regime as well. And - again - they had no such amount of natural resources. That`s even if you make me to believe in your "new colony" absurdity. If we had enough will - we could diversify our economy, invest in education and scienece, but decided to spent much of an incomes on military (like useless Cruisers in Medittarian Sea, Mistral ship etc etc), Olympics 2014, FIFA 2018 and other toys. We had all kind of possibilites and fcuked them up. (And why everyone is so sure that americans are the reason why countries like South Korea or eastern Europe states came from ashes to prosperity? They have got nothing else to do to feed 60 millions Polands? That`s a complete russian-propaganda nonsence, explaining our laziness.)

Originally Posted by Antonio1986

7. As an economist I recognise that some times dignity is more important than money. If Russians consider that they do anything they do (whether is called invasion in Georgia or invation in Ukraine) for dignity I respect this. If they do all this just to increase the money and power of some oligarchs, I feel sorry of them. But as I understood Russians consider that Crimea has always been part of Russia (if I am not wrong the majority of population there are Russians), as Greeks consider that Cyprus has always been part of Greece (80% Greek population). The difference that Greeks never had the balls to enter and take back Cyprus, but Russians had the balls to enter and take Crimea.

Dignity?

We broke the law. We became a non-grata country. We used to be a full member of civilized world, now the whole world detests us. Don`t mix "balls" with russian stupidity. That doesn`t matter what the population of Crimea consists of (actually tatars and ukrainians were at least % 25-40 of it - so they had to leave their homes). The land belongs to Ukraine, that`s what matters. With russians or without on it.

Russians should learn the history first. And then, to learn to respect the law. Since we are not able to - I can`t see any "dignity" in taking by force something that doesn`t belong to us. Then no one will invest in our economy, no Elon Musk will occur here willing to spend biliions on researches. If the government doesn`t respect the private property -
no one will respect us.

And I don`t care about sences of my dear nationals, their fear ofNATO or smth... Wanna live in peace? 1. Create professional army (do not expand your power everywhere from Cuba to Black Sea and Syria, but be humble and smart... we are not USA and cannot be like them.) 2. Act correctly on international arena.

Horror stories about NATO were writted in order to make the nation believe that enemies are everywhere. In fact, there is nothing concertning safety. That`s just the way of pursuing someones political goals.

I agree with all of Sergei's points. Russia is not self-sufficient. This is not caused by Russians in themselves but the leadership of the government. They were lied to - e.g. 'the rouble is strong' as Sergei is saying.

I think it's actually worse than what is being reported. The reason?: Most economies all over the world are in trouble, some sort of decline, even China's. That's because people are in debt across most Western nations or don't have the purchasing power they once had. In many Western countries, that's not very evident yet as you see on the news, people running towards discount days (Black Friday) and Christmas shopping. But, the American and Canadian dollar have been plummeting although the USA dollars has stabilized somewhat - but, much of that is probably because of the other currencies falling (IMHO).

Oil prices have been free-falling and Putin had been throwing money around (that Sochi Olympic investment looks really awful now) and Russia has been trying to save their banks - bailouts don't work. But, with doctors and teachers being laid off or losing their jobs, there is no support for ordinary Russians. Inflation is also hurting Russians so both economics and politics have been heavily mismanaged by Russia's government. Yet, they will try to spin it away from their responsibility. Not recognizing the deception is the only thing one could fault *those* particular Russians for. If I could articulate it all in Russian, it might be more receptive. Sorry, I can't. Прости.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/busine...es/513309.html

The Collapse of Putin's Economic System - Bloomberg

There is no point to create hysteria.
And there is also no point to read "the experts" on countless MSM sites, since they were lying before and sure they lie now.
Russian economy was always oil and gas oriented and eventually the consequences are to come, as right now. But to get out of this dependency Russia has to start producing and exporting goods. For that the export should be cheap.
Right now it is a good time to let ruble "fall" or more precise to let it find its real value, because it is easy to blame the US and the EU for "the sanctions". The CBR could have stopped the fall by intervening on the currency market but it deliberately chose not to, to save money and to let ruble fly.

On behind that some interesting things happening:
CBR increased the interest rate to 17% but not for all loans.
It left investment oriented loans on 9%
Military loans on 10.5%
And, most importantly, small business loans on 6.5%

It is clear that Russia FINALLY wants to start creating businesses.
It won't be easy and there are many things to overcome but it's a start.

Originally Posted by Serge_spb

Dignity?

We broke the law. We became a non-grata country. We used to be a full member of civilized world, now the whole world detests us.

Law? Laws in geopolitics don't exist anymore. For Russia having pro-american regime in Ukraine means death as an independent country. Everyone in big politics understands that. And still US+EU forced the issue. Putin had 2 options: let his country die slowly but surely or throw it into a war having little chances to succeed. Everyone expected him to choose former. He choosed latter. Everyone hates him now.

Originally Posted by Suobig

Law? Laws in geopolitics don't exist anymore. For Russia having pro-american regime in Ukraine means death as an independent country. Everyone in big politics understands that. And still US+EU forced the issue. Putin had 2 options: let his country die slowly but surely or throw it into a war having little chances to succeed. Everyone expected him to choose former. He choosed latter. Everyone hates him now.

Neither of the two points (namely, the Ukrainian rule would be"pro-American", and that a pro-American regime at Russia's borders would threaten its sovereignty) is actually backed up by any evidence, anything but countless statements made by guys who do propaganda for a living. Why oppose yourselves to "evil America" and raise the iron curtain again? You two used to be friends, just recall those times. Stop thinking of everyone out there as your enemies. Maybe some of what's going on in the world would threaten someone's autocracy, but certainly not your whole country. Think about that.

And anyway, starting a war with another state out of geopolitical reasons is both a very stupid, and dirty and inhuman thing to do.

Originally Posted by Eric C.

Neither of the two points (namely, the Ukrainian rule would be"pro-American", and that a pro-American regime at Russia's borders would threaten its sovereignty) is actually backed up by any evidence

Learned from the best

Originally Posted by Jen Psaki

So these are just further evidence of the connection between Russia and the armed militants
ukraine_kramatorsk.jpg

Originally Posted by hddscan

Learned from the best

How are those two even connected? Except maybe the keyword "evidence"

Originally Posted by Eric C.

How are those two even connected? Except maybe the keyword "evidence"

The point is there is no evidence needed as long as people believe what they are told, as Jen showed it to the whole world. And right now neither you nor Suobig presented any evidence which leaves the topic to believers I suspect you are in the minority on the subject.

Originally Posted by Eric C.

Neither of the two points (namely, the Ukrainian rule would be"pro-American", and that a pro-American regime at Russia's borders would threaten its sovereignty) is actually backed up by any evidence

No evidence, huh?
Victoria Nuland was not discussing who she does and who she does not want to see in the Rada?
NATO was not planning to place anti-missile systems in Poland? And now they have Ukraine - way better place for anti-missile systems. Nice step to break that disturbing nuclear parity.
Also Sevastopol port has huge strategic importance for russian Navy in the Black Sea. That needs no evidence - it's geography. Does anyone believe that after joining NATO Ukraine would allow russian Navy to stay in Crimea?

There were times when Russia believed in fairytales about "you have no enemies" and "NATO will never expand to the East". We've learned something from those.

Stick to the topic, everyone.

Originally Posted by Serge_spb

Stick to the topic, everyone.

You've made a statement, good sir. And now you deny others to reply to it. Is that a proper way to discuss things?
You've made a political statement and suddenly everyone discusses politics. In forum section called "Politics". How dare they!

Why Russia Is Destroying Its Own Economy

Jacob Davidson

In short, because Russia has a problem more urgent than its declining GDP.

Things aren’t exactly going well in Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Oil prices have fallen to $59 a barrel and the nation’s economy is on pace to contract between 4.5% and 4.7%—more than twice the contraction caused by our own Great Recession—if that price remains at $60 or below. Meanwhile, Russia is straining against American and European sanctions that are putting even more pressure on the country’s finances.

When the United States was facing recession, our Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to near-zero levels—and has kept them there. That stimulated the economy by making spending and investing more attractive (credit was cheap) and turning saving into a losing proposition (on top of low interest payments, money in the bank could potentially be eaten away by inflation).

But Russia has apparently adopted the opposite strategy. Instead of lowering rates to spur investment, the nation’s central bank has raised its key rate to a whopping 17%. That means simply leaving rubles in the bank will lead to extraordinarily high risk-free returns. Unless businesses can find an investment opportunity that will make them even higher returns, a very tall order, there’s no point in withdrawing any money. Why spend on a new store or factory when you’ll make more just letting your cash sit in a vault?

It’s very likely, in other words, that Russia’s higher interest rates will slow its already slowing economy. Rosnef, a state-owned oil company, has already accused the central bank of “pushing Russia towards recession.”

But if that’s true, then why is Russia pursuing such a policy? The reason is that Russia has an arguably even more urgent problem than its slowing economy. Russia’s currency, the ruble, has been in free-fall as oil prices have dropped, and is now down 47% against the dollar since the beginning of the year. This is a big problem for Russian companies that need to pay their debt in dollars, and whose rubles are now worth nothing on international markets. Worse, Western economic sanctions have prevented businesses from accessing reserves of foreign currencies overseas. Without drastic action, Russia could find its economy permanently crippled by an all-but-worthless currency.

Since people selling their rubles for dollars is what’s pushing the currency down, the central bank has raised interest rates to make holding on to rubles more attractive. That’s meant to keep the currency’s value up, even at the expense of short-term economic growth.


The plan doesn’t appear to be working, however. Even after a massive jump in interest rates, the ruble has continued to crater. Economists are now suggesting Russia may be forced to impose capital controls—policies that would make trading rubes for dollars more difficult or expensive, or require exporters to convert dollars to rubles—to prevent a further sell-off.

Ultimately, anything short of an increase in oil prices is unlikely to do much good. Oil and gas revenues make up roughly half of Russia’s budget, and without that money, the country is in for rough times. “The central bank was too late with its move,” one expert told Bloomberg. “Without oil and the economy stabilizing, the ruble won’t rise.”

Why Russia Is Destroying Its Own Economy - Time.com

В Москве остановлены продажи новых автомобилей 35 брендов

Из-за стремительного обвала рубля продавцы автомобилей уже не ограничиваются повышением цен. Один из крупнейших столичных автодилеров, Major Auto, приостановил продажи во всех своих автосалонах. Как долго продлится этот внеплановый мораторий, ясности нет.



Прогнозы для автодилеров в России звучат пессимистично...
Падение курса рубля и лихорадка на валютном рынке начинает все сильнее бить не только по покупателям, но и по автодилерам. Из-за финансовой нестабильности приостановил продажи машин один из крупнейших российских автодилеров Major Auto. Информация об этом изначально появилась на ленте агентства ТАСС, но корреспонденту АвтоВестей ее уже подтвердил сотрудник одного из автосалонов Major. Решение затронуло все 35 брендов, продукцией которых торгует компания.
Напомним, 16 декабря курс доллара на московской бирже в какой-то момент достиг 80 рублей, а евро перевалил за отметку в 100 рублей. Таким образом, полученная дилером за иномарку сумма в рублях при пересчете в валюту оказывается близкой к себестоимости, а то и меньше ее.
Как сообщил ТАСС, продажи автомобилей приостановлены на срок от 1 до 3 дней. Сотрудник же автосалона сообщил АвтоВестям, что предсказать срок "заморозки" чрезвычайно сложно.
Стоит напомнить, что из-за падения рубля многие автопроизводители уже не раз переписывали российские ценники на машины. И похоже, это еще не финал: в начале 2015 года ожидается вторая волна роста цен на автомобили.
Компания Major Auto основана в 1998 году и является официальным дилером 35 автомобильных марок. В Московском регионе компания имеет 63 филиала, также открыто 6 филиалов в Санкт-Петербурге. По данным Forbes, в 2013 году выручка холдинга составила 88 млрд руб.

(В Москве остановлены продажи новых автомобилей 35 брендов - АвтоВести - новости, тест-драйвы, фото и видео : В Москве остановлены продажи новых автомобилей 35 брендов)

Originally Posted by Suobig

You've made a statement, good sir. And now you deny others to reply to it. Is that a proper way to discuss things?
You've made a political statement and suddenly everyone discusses politics. In forum section called "Politics". How dare they!

No, he just stated a fact. You're going on a tangent, diverting away from the topic to make statements you've already made in other threads (RE: Ukraine, USA involvement etc. etc.).

Btw, I stated quite a while ago that Russia's economy would collapse and it would be soon.

Originally Posted by Serge_spb

Why Russia Is Destroying Its Own Economy

Jacob Davidson

When the United States was facing recession, our Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to near-zero levels—and has kept them there. That stimulated the economy by making spending and investing more attractive (credit was cheap) and turning saving into a losing proposition (on top of low interest payments, money in the bank could potentially be eaten away by inflation).

But Russia has apparently adopted the opposite strategy. Instead of lowering rates to spur investment, the nation’s central bank has raised its key rate to a whopping 17%.

Another bright and shiny example of "the expert" with his "expert opinion"
When the US was facing the recession dollar almost started deflating thus the low interest rates to stimulate economy.
Russian ruble has quite a spin of inflation thus the high interest rate.
Although "the expert" suddenly forgot to mention that.

Originally Posted by Serge_spb

Решение затронуло все 35 брендов, продукцией которых торгует компания.

Bad time for any import seller in Russia. They would have to go. There is going to be a domino effect pretty soon on European economies that trade with Russia. Although they won't suffer as much still there is quite a risk, considering that the EU is balancing on the recession edge