Thread: Что произойдет в восточной Украине? (Eastern Ukraine?)

Originally Posted by it-ogo

...или, там, НТВ, "Первый" канал и иже с ними. Да, ты прав, ни БиБиСи, ни Дойче Велле, ни даже Украинская правда такого себе не позволят.

Не улавливаю сарказма. Позволяют себе все. И БиБиСи, и Дойче Велле в том числе.

Originally Posted by Ramil

Не улавливаю сарказма. Позволяют себе все. И БиБиСи, и Дойче Велле в том числе.

Заведомую ложь под опубликованным фото на первой странице? Фстудию!

Do you really think people in Eastern Ukraine are so LAME that they can't organise an uprising if they want, without the help of Russia? The Western Ukrainians and Kievans could, so why shouldn't the Eastern Ukrainians be able to?

I don't think Russia has sent anyone there, because I don't think Russia has an agenda of annexing the area. If anything, I think Russia would prefer them to calm down and simply participate in the elections and vote for a pro-Russian government. Why would Russia want some average size heavy industrial cities and a few mines.... Doesn't Russia already have PLENTY of that? Crimea was a completely different cup of tea - it was unique, and it was a matter of national pride for Russia, and it's strategic.
That's how I perceive the difference, anyway.

And what is so strange about some of them appearing semi-military? Or officers?

I don't know, but I am guessing that Ukraine has compulsory military service for at least 9 months, probably more. I know that the USSR had compulsory military service. So the majority of the male population will have done a year or more in the military. Obviously based on that they can "appear as military" if they want to. And among all these men there will be ex special forces, officers and people who can comptently organise the taking over of a police station - particularly if the police aren't even motivated to resist them.....

Originally Posted by it-ogo

I think that Russia will do anything to break any kind of elections or referendum in Ukraine. If miraculously it will not succeed I will go and vote.

It's good to hear that you will vote at least - I guess the ultimate sign of total disillusionment is when people don't even bother to walk to a voting hall and vote (hm... when did I last vote....) Keep your head up and stick to your principles. I can't even imagine all the stuff that people in Ukriane have to suffer through. If it was me, I would probably gone insane or escaped the country a long time ago. So kudos to you.

Originally Posted by Hanna

I don't think Russia has an agenda of annexing the area.

Of course they have not. It's not the area, it's the Ukraine, the whole of it. At the very least, all of the East and the South. It is worth it, isn't it?

Originally Posted by Serge_spb

Границы Ирака или Ливии изменились?

Границы не изменились. Захватывать и удерживать надо целиком, зачем делиться с кем-то? Например, на Гавайях:

Originally Posted by en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legal_status_of_Hawaii

The legal issues regarding Hawaii's international standing are complex. While many scholars and legal experts feel that the case for legal independence is clear, the practical ability to actually assert such independence is difficult. Some complicating factors include:

• The continued presence of the U.S. military in Hawaii;
• The assumed reluctance of the U.S. to give up its claim to Hawaii, legal or not;

Кроме того, вот РФ упрекают в разных вещах, в том числе и в том, что она пытается вернуть свергнутого Януковича. Смотрим пример цивилизованного решения подобной проблемы и ищем 5 различий:

Originally Posted by ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9E%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%86%D0%B8%D1%8F_% C2%AB%D0%9F%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%B4%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B6%D0 %BA%D0%B0_%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BC%D0%BE%D0%BA%D1%80%D0% B0%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%B8%C2%BB

Операция «Поддержка демократии» (англ. Operation Uphold Democracy) — вторжение войск США на остров Гаити с целью возвращения в эту страну законного президента Жан-Бертран Аристида, свергнутого военной хунтой.


В 1990 году Жан-Бертран Аристид выиграл президентские выборы, получив 67 % голосов.[...]
Однако его семимесячное правление было отмечено явным террором, включая известное «надевание бус» (надевание горящей автомобильной покрышки на человека), для уничтожения политических оппонентов и использование уличной толпы для запугивания гаитянского парламента и судебных органов. Гаитянские военные выступили против своего президента. Аристиду предложили либо уйти в отставку, либо предстать перед судом за неоднократное нарушение конституции Республики Гаити. В присутствии нескольких послов иностранных государств, Аристид решил уйти в отставку и покинуть Гаити. 30 сентября 1991 года он был смещён, бежал в Венесуэлу, затем в США. Америка была нацелена на возвращение своего человека во главе Гаити.


К берегам острова подошли 20 боевых кораблей ВМФ США, в том числе два авианосца. 19 сентября 1994 года более 60 военно-транспортных самолётов взлетели с базы Форт-Брэгг и взяли курс на Гаити. Но через несколько минут был дан отбой, воздушная армада повернула назад. Генерал Седрас распорядился разобрать баррикады и не препятствовать высадке американского морского десанта, призванного осуществить смену режима. В тот же день 3 тысячи морских пехотинцев высадились на Гаити. Сопротивления они не встретили.

Вот ит-ого постоянно обвиняет меня в том, что я использую метод дискуссии "сам дурак". Но, согласись, учить всех как правильно жить может лишь тот, кто своим примером, своими действиями доказал правильность и жизнеспособность того, в чём он убеждает других. Поэтому, не стоит удивляться, что эта система Big Lie распространилась. Все стороны беззастенчиво врут. И всё получается как бы симметрично. Кто же в этой истории прав? За кого мы должны ломать копья? Вот ит-ого говорит, не за кого, а против кого. Против РФ - "To remind of the rules". Но не за временное правительство Украины - "я же не подписывался под действиями правительства Украины". А ты что-нибудь можешь предложить?

Originally Posted by it-ogo

For example one evening SBU made a statement that there are 60 hostages and a bomb in captured Lugansk administration building. Next day nearly ALL Ukrainian media checked the statement, and published that it was wrong. And that was all. It was an attempt of lie but it failed.

That is fantastic! So, what officials were specifically responsible for distributing the Big Lie? Do we know their names? Were they prosecuted in court? Was any investigation or legal case open against them? Is the public protected in any way from being manipulated that way in the future?

Originally Posted by Hanna

Do you really think people in Eastern Ukraine are so LAME that they can't organise an uprising if they want, without the help of Russia? The Western Ukrainians and Kievans could, so why shouldn't the Eastern Ukrainians be able to?

I AM the one from Eastern Ukraine. So, please don't say "they" when speaking to me, say "you". And WE did the uprising in Kiev as well along with people from other parts of Ukraine. 2 of ~100 protesters killed at Maidan were from my city.

There is a great difference between people's uprising and military operation. In Kiev WE saw natural uprising with some support (like food etc) from business. Here WE see foreign military operation by people from outside leading some deceived locals. There is a kind of uprising but without giant militatry, informational, financial and organizational help from outside it were ended shortly - with some demonstrations. There are different organization, different methods, different weapon, different tactics and different society. And world politicians are not so LAME to not understand it.

I don't think Russia has sent anyone there, because I don't think Russia has an agenda of annexing the area.

To think or not to think is your choice. The events are going around me and I know what I see and what I hear. You can enjoy your nonconformism, your theories and viewpoints as you like, but here we have the real life.

Originally Posted by E-learner

Of course they have not. It's not the area, it's the Ukraine, the whole of it. At the very least, all of the East and the South. It is worth it, isn't it?

You think Russia wants ALL of Ukraine?! And planning something military, in secret?
Seriously?

Like "USSR v2.0 (capitalist edition)" or "Imperial Russia 2.0 (fully revised digital edition)"

Nope, I don't believe that for a second. And I don't think the population of Russia would be back that whatsoever.

I think there is about 1 / 10 chance that all hell breaks lose in Ukraine and Russia ends up doing some kind of "peacekeeping" intervention and ends up annexing some more territory, perhaps following another referendum.

But it's quite possible that NATO would get involved if that happened. I don't think Putin would risk that - it seems quite insane. He's more pragmatic than that.

Like I said - they are more pissed off with Russia right now than they have ever been in my entire life. The blackpainting and demonising of Russia/Putin is complete.

NATO must have had some VERY grand plans for Crimea, considering how pissed off they were at having it snatched from right under their nose. I bet they were planning the mother of all foreign US bases right there in Sevastopol!

Originally Posted by it-ogo

I AM the one from Eastern Ukraine. So, please don't say "they" when speaking to me, say "you".

I was referring to Eisenherz post, not yours in specific, and used the words "you" in a generic way. I am perfectly aware that you are from there.

Like I said to you before, I totally respect your viewpoint and understand that probably at least half of the people there feel like you do. Nevertheless there are clearly a lot of people who are prepared to take big risks and go to a lot of trouble to for different views than yours.

УНИАН:
"Подполковник РФ", командовавший милицией в Горловке, оказался местным вымогателем

Originally Posted by it-ogo

Заведомую ложь под опубликованным фото на первой странице? Фстудию!

Твоя претензия заключается в отношении текста к фото? А кто сказал, что текст - комментарий к фото?
Фото как-бы вообще нерелевантно, все что на нем видно - какие-то люди в камуфляже. Никакой ценности в пропагандистском плане оно само по себе не несет.

If Russia is really in Eastern Ukraine, they are losing there touch - apparently Ukraine just re-took the airport that was occupied by pro-Russian forces, whoever they are.

Какая разница, что устроило бы Россию?
И почему речь о "крымчанах"?

Ощущение, будто кое-где забыли, что страна называется Украина. Которая имеет полное право (и обязана) защищать свою целостность. В том числе противодействуя проведению таких "референдумов".

Выучили умных слов, про легитимность, международное право и пр. Всюду суют не к месту пример с Косово. Забывают одну вещь. Что то что случилось в Крыму - это буквально "мы здесь за всех решили, несогласные идут нахер".

И это не издержки демократии, как кто-то выше предположил. Так в цивилизованном мире дела не делаются.

Пусть на суперлегитимном референдуме 50 % скажут "за". Хоть все 80.

Если Косово не нравится, можно привести пример с Суданом. Судан тоже имел право защищать и долгие годы защищал свою территориальную целостность, однако США решили одобрить его разделение на две части еще до появления официальных результатов референдума.

В июне 2010 года США объявили, что будут приветствовать появление нового государства [Южный судан] в случае положительного исхода референдума…

Официальные результаты референдума были объявлены 7 февраля, согласно им, за отделение Южного Судана было подано 98,83 % от общего числа признанных действительными бюллетеней. Официальное провозглашение нового государства произошло 9 июля 2011 года, до этой даты Судан продолжал существовать как единое государство[21].

Южный Судан — Википедия

Аналогично, Россия в силу всем известных исторических причин вполне имела право приветствовать положительный исход референдума в Крыму и затем признать его независимость с последующим вхождение в свой состав, несмотря на противодействие со стороны нелегитимных властей Украины.
Так что любая территориальная целостность относительна и зависит от множества привходящих факторов.

Originally Posted by Hanna

Do you really think people in Eastern Ukraine are so LAME that they can't organise an uprising if they want, without the help of Russia? The Western Ukrainians and Kievans could, so why shouldn't the Eastern Ukrainians be able to?

I'm neither Ukrainian nor eastern Ukrainian, but I think here's what's going on. Even if we assume that Russia hasn't directly sent anyone to eastern Ukraine, those 2 "uprisings" are pretty much different by the goals and methods of implementation. While the Kyiv one was definitely a pro-Ukrainian one that simply targeted to put down Yanukovich's government, which the people thought was more of a burden than any sort of help for the Ukrainian people, the eastern one is more tricky, but by far it's clear that they (I don't mean all eastern Ukrainians by any means, but just those "fighters") don't really consider themselves Ukrainians, and don't really want to live in Ukraine, and they actually want to get separated from Ukraine, and it can easily be viewed that many of them would want to join Russia. Now, it's clear that it's NOT an internal argument in the country, it's Ukrainians on one side, and "those people" (whoever they are) on the other side. Now, speaking of their methods, I wonder how many people from the Maidan (the Kyiv uprising) were armed with AK-47 and similar weapons? How many of them stole weapons including grenades and such? How many of them actually used weapons for attacking purposes? How many of them took hostages to achieve their goals? That is all what those "eastern guys" have been doing.

Originally Posted by Eric C.

How many of them took hostages to achieve their goals? That is all what those "eastern guys" have been doing.

Took hostages? I think respecting other users of the forum by reading their previous posts and keeping yourself up-to-date might not be a bad idea.

Originally Posted by it-ogo

For example one evening SBU made a statement that there are 60 hostages and a bomb in captured Lugansk administration building. Next day nearly ALL Ukrainian media checked the statement, and published that it was wrong. And that was all. It was an attempt of lie but it failed.

Originally Posted by Hanna

You think Russia wants ALL of Ukraine?! And planning something military, in secret?
Seriously?

I don't know. Maybe all of it is an improvisation.
Anyway, if possible, they will prefer non-military and "half-military" means.

I think there is about 1 / 10 chance that all hell breaks lose in Ukraine and Russia ends up doing some kind of "peacekeeping" intervention

At the moment, it does look like one of the cards being played.

NATO must have had some VERY grand plans for Crimea, considering how pissed off they were at having it snatched from right under their nose. I bet they were planning the mother of all foreign US bases right there in Sevastopol!

I don't know about that but I believe the rest of the Ukraine is no lesser prise.

Originally Posted by Eric C.

...it's Ukrainians on one side, and "those people" (whoever they are) on the other side.

Eric, those people are actually locals, i.e. Ukrainian citizens. Even Ukrainian biased media doesn't go so far as to claim, that all (or even most) of them are Russians. Kiev just implies, that they are organized by some kind of Russian agents, spies, or whatever.

As for AKs - during Maidan 'uprising' military arsenals were robbed in Western Ukraine - in particular in Lviv (Feb 2014). Among stolen goodies there were 5000 AKs, about 2700 Makarovs, more than 100 machine guns, about 1500 grenades, etc. Some of it eventually spread over Ukraine (Viva la revolution!).
There also were loads of failed attempts, or at least they were reported as failed. So having some kind of weapon isn't a proof of external influence

Originally Posted by Eric C.

How many of them took hostages to achieve their goals? That is all what those "eastern guys" have been doing.

First, sorry, but this comment is rather ignorant. Please tone down your supriority a bit, ok?

Second, as Crocodile already pointed out, there were no hostages.
That's how local (Ukrainian) official media work. They print/post some nonsense, aimed at fuelling overall paranoia. Then after some time they admit that they were mistaken or "misinformed". But the harm is already done. Thousands of people've read it and it changed their attitude in a certain way.

Sometimes they even don't bother to mention their mistakes. There were hysterical articles as of Apr 8th claiming that "Russian tanks will invade Ukraine tonight" (meaning a full blown war at the border). Obviously, there were no tanks. But some people are still reffering to this imaginary tank battles as if they were real.

Frankly, it's ridiculous. It's like Ukrainian government and some "patriots" are living in an AU. They refuse to acknowledge what's happening under their noses (raising disquiet among local people in some regions due to wretched inner policy), at the same time getting fixated on something that have not really happened (or something could've happended, but of which there's no proof).

Originally Posted by Crocodile

Took hostages? I think respecting other users of the forum by reading their previous posts and keeping yourself up-to-date might not be a bad idea.

Thanks Croc, of course I should've seen that post, and if I had, I would've certainly reformulated my question. I just hope there have not been other episodes like that, because I've actually heard of several incidents with taking hostages.

Originally Posted by gRomoZeka

Eric, those people are actually locals, i.e. Ukrainian citizens. Even Ukrainian biased media doesn't go so far as to claim, that all (or even most) of them are Russians. Kiev just implies, that they are organized by some kind of Russian agents, spies, or whatever.

I do believe most of those people have the Ukrainian citizenship. But they say it themselves, they don't want to be Ukrainians, they want to either live in their own republic, or be part of Russia. That is why I say they're opposite to the Ukrainians, i.e. people who want to keep integrity of Ukraine. Maybe I misunderstood something? Then tell me please what exactly. =)

Originally Posted by Eric C.

I do believe most of those people have the Ukrainian citizenship. But they say it themselves, they don't want to be Ukrainians, they want to either live in their own republic, or be part of Russia. That is why I say they're opposite to the Ukrainians, i.e. people who want to keep integrity of Ukraine. Maybe I misunderstood something? Then tell me please what exactly. =)

People generally do not want to join Russia. Most of them support an idea of federal Ukraine, demanding more autonomy from Kiev. They also expect to be able to affect national policy a little more (right now regions have virtually no say in important decisions).

I'd say, Russian flags are more of a symbol of not supporting current government policy, since the government itself is viewed by many as illegimate. The same way American, EU and Georgian (!) flags on Maidan were, apparently, symbols of supporting western values, and not a sign of 'protesters' attempting to join Georgia.