Thread: Future of Eastern Ukraine? / Будущее Восточной Украины?

Let's see if we can predict how this will end....

Nobody can see who voted for which option, so please vote for whatever option you think is most likely...

I think no one can predict this right now. Imho, one thing could help though: if European Union stopped to act like USA's lapdog and started to carry more pro-european policy, it would certainly help to solve the current crisis. Quid prodest, as Romans used to say. It's obvious that neither EU, nor Russia or certanly nor Ukraine will gain profit from current Ukrainian crisis. USA gain visible profits in either outcome: stable and democratic Ukraine as a bridge for strong cooperation between EU and Russian Federation makes USA a spare link in this chain. In the current scenario USA get: 1) scared Europe who needs protection from "evil" Russia, 2) market for their shale gas, 3) reason to put their military bases in Ukraine, Baltics, Poland, Finland, Sweden etc., 4) strong arguments for internal consumption to spend more money on military. And these are only the most obvious profits.

Originally Posted by Basil77

I think no one can predict this right now. Imho, one thing could help though: if European Union stopped to act like USA's lapdog and started to carry more pro-european policy, it would certainly help to solve the current crisis.

I think the events in Ukraine has revealed the true colours of the EU once and for all.
It's certainly crushed any illusions that I had about the EU anyway.

Just pick the option that you think is most likely at the moment - it's anonymous..
I think you can even change your vote later if you want.

Originally Posted by Hanna

Just pick the option that you think is most likely at the moment - it's anonymous..
I think you can even change your vote later if you want.

Sorry, I can't do that because I think that at least 3 of your options currently have quite similar possibilities to become true.

Unfortunately, I can't answer that question. I lost my prediction credibility when I predicted Russian military will withdraw after Crimea would become more autonomous within Ukraine.

Originally Posted by Crocodile

Unfortunately, I can't answer that question. I lost my prediction credibility when I predicted Russian military will withdraw after Crimea would become more autonomous within Ukraine.

It's a strong person who is able to admit that he was mistaken. Just because you were wrong that one time, doesn't mean you always will be! Your prediction for Crimea was perfectly reasonable and realistic. What actually happened was a lot more unexpected.

I think the 2nd and 3rd options will more-or-less have the same result. It's impossible to predict what will happen because we have already seen some crazy turn of events and I would not be surprised if any of these scenerios will come true.

I can't agree with some of your formulations, in particular 2 and 4. It implies that now "Eastern Ukraine" has its own will and ability to implement it. In fact it is now an "area in chaos": people are disoriented and terrorized by Russian diversants destroying the infrastructure and arming and organizing local poorest people and criminals into gangs and directing that gangs with no purpose apart pure destruction.

In my opinion options of 2 and 3 can become available only after achieving option 1. The population most probably would support option 1 if asked (60%) or 2 which is mainly the same. Actual support from population of option 4 is close to 0 but it is possible as a result of massive Russian military invasion. Option 5 has some support (about 20% but unstable) though I don't believe that Putin is crazy enough for that. He is not going to take responsibility for those people, he just decieve them through Russian press to use as tools.

Originally Posted by it-ogo

I can't agree with some of your formulations, in particular 2 and 4. It implies that now "Eastern Ukraine" has its own will and ability to implement it. In fact it is now an "area in chaos": people are disoriented and terrorized by Russian diversants destroying the infrastructure and arming and organizing local poorest people and criminals into gangs and directing that gangs with no purpose apart pure destruction.

In my opinion options of 2 and 3 can become available only after achieving option 1. The population most probably would support option 1 if asked (60%) or 2 which is mainly the same. Actual support from population of option 4 is close to 0 but it is possible as a result of massive Russian military invasion. Option 5 has some support (about 20% but unstable) though I don't believe that Putin is crazy enough for that. He is not going to take responsibility for those people, he just decieve them through Russian press to use as tools.

Cheers, ok I'll re-phrase the options if you suggest better wording. I didn't give it too much thought, just put down all possible outcomes that occurred to me.

So the last option is - if you believe it will continue like today indefinitely, or get even worse, i.e. every town is occupied and the UA army on the war path against the protesters etc.
I guess that is that nobody can or wants to do anything to solve the situation. I.e. Kiev can't and Russia won't.


I guess it's a real blessing that there are no moslems living there, else you'd have the jihad brigade arriving too.....

According to the Putin plan, Ukraine must become a federation, but Kiev is still defiant, which is pushing the country to the bottomless abyss of uncertainty and chaos.

So the most likely future for Eastern Ukraine, according to MR members so far, is a decline into general chaos and/or civil war for the forseeable future. According to "our man in Eastern Ukraine" that's already happened.
Around 10 people died so far. Hope there hasn't been too much damage to property and buildings and that society continues to function.

It's the last option first, then the first option at last. =))

Certain groups at the east of Ukraine, led by { unknown so far } thought they could take too much on themselves deciding on the relationships between different parts of the country they're living in. That's obviously breaking the law, and it's only a matter of time for those groups to be disarmed and stopped. Until then, it's option F); but eventually, it will be option A) anyway.

Originally Posted by Eric C.

It's the last option first, then the first option at last. =))

Certain groups at the east of Ukraine, led by { unknown so far } thought they could take too much on themselves deciding on the relationships between different parts of the country they're living in. That's obviously breaking the law, and it's only a matter of time for those groups to be disarmed and stopped. Until then, it's option F); but eventually, it will be option A) anyway.

You are too optimistic, I’m afraid.)) The touchstone is going to become the forthcoming referendum in the Donetsk region (in case it indeed takes place on May,11) that will demonstrate either impotence of Kiev's junta, or its bloody nature depending on the reaction. What exactly will happen next only God knows at the moment, with a few possible scenarios outlined in the smart nytimes analysis.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/27/wo...sion.html?_r=0

Originally Posted by diogen_

You are too optimistic, I’m afraid.)) The touchstone is going to become the forthcoming referendum in the Donetsk region (in case it indeed takes place on May,11) that will demonstrate either impotence of Kiev's junta, or its bloody nature depending on the reaction. What exactly will happen next only God knows at the moment, with a few possible scenarios outlined in the smart nytimes analysis.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/27/wo...sion.html?_r=0

Sorry, but I just cannot take those separatist clowns seriously. "Donetsk people's republic"? WTF? It's like I and a few of my friends got drunk and declared a people republic of our own. Totally weird and ridiculous. That "referendum" is a comedian show, nothing more. The real and serious question is, if those separatist groups are actually backed up by anyone, and if so, then whom? If they aren't, a couple of days of intensive anti-terrorist therapy should completely bring them down, and show the rest what armed takeover of buildings gets them. If they ARE backed up by a certain country, and that country does invade in case of a counter terrorist operation, well, then at least everyone will see the real face of that country.

Originally Posted by Eric C.

Sorry, but I just cannot take those separatist clowns seriously. "Donetsk people's republic"? WTF? It's like I and a few of my friends got drunk and declared a people republic of our own. Totally weird and ridiculous. That "referendum" is a comedian show, nothing more. The real and serious question is, if those separatist groups are actually backed up by anyone, and if so, then whom? If they aren't, a couple of days of intensive anti-terrorist therapy should completely bring them down, and show the rest what armed takeover of buildings gets them. If they ARE backed up by a certain country, and that country does invade in case of a counter terrorist operation, well, then at least everyone will see the real face of that country.

You seem to seriously overestimate Russian omnipotence in those events and underestimate the role of local oligarchs.)) Even pro-junta sources take the referendum seriously.

"На 30 апреля намечено ключевое событие в сценарии дестабилизации Востока путем "референдума". Заседание Донецкого областного совета, который и должен по замыслу противника инициировать "референдум" по отделению области. Если не будет кворума - то есть если Ринат Ахметов даст команду, то провал сессии будет означать неминуемый провал технологии "референдума". Надеюсь, что руководство Украины понимает, кто является ключевыми фигурами этого спектакля, и проведет более результативные переговоры с депутатами, чем ГРУ РФ",

На 30 апреля намечено ключевое событие в сценарии дестабилизации Востока путем референдума,

Originally Posted by diogen_

You seem to seriously overestimate Russian omnipotence in those events and underestimate the role of local oligarchs.)) Even pro-junta sources take the referendum seriously.


На 30 апреля намечено ключевое событие в сценарии дестабилизации Востока путем референдума,

Well, if it's completely internal business there, then I don't get why the Ukrainian forces are so shy about going in and putting that freak show to an end.

Originally Posted by Eric C.

It's like I and a few of my friends got drunk and declared a people republic of our own. Totally weird and ridiculous.

Борис Николаевич, ты?

Originally Posted by Eric C.

Sorry, but I just cannot take those separatist clowns seriously. "Donetsk people's republic"? WTF? It's like I and a few of my friends got drunk and declared a people republic of our own. Totally weird and ridiculous.

I agree with ВарраВа. The irony is that it's exactly how modern Russia, Ukraine and Belarus was born. And entire "civilized world" was totally ok with it.

Originally Posted by DrBaldhead

The area will descend into chaos. I consider this outcome quite real because that was the main goal of the powers which had started it all. A new politically unstable, dangerous region right under the borders of geopolitical enemies. The conflicts will go on, spreading hatred and poverty, making a good soil for various extremist organizations. Once again, the US will become the safest place in the world. By the price of safety in any other places.
Yet, I still hope we could solve that problem.

Scary if true. I think they need to have that referendum and it needs to be fair, legit and consider all options.

At the moment there is so much propaganda and misinformation that I doubt even the East Ukrainians themselves are sure what they want..

Originally Posted by Basil77

I agree with ВарраВа. The irony is that it's exactly how modern Russia, Ukraine and Belarus was born. And entire "civilized world" was totally ok with it.

Well, I think China paid very close attention in 1991, and learned exactly what not to do if they want to keep their country together and avoid foreign influence that could split things up.

And sure, once the USA got a foot in, regional nationalism was their best weapon against Moscow, since it was already there and a bit supressed. Plus also tricking people that scrapping socialism was a sure way to get a condo, a designer wardrobe and a BMW in five years...

And as you know, whatever the USA likes, we in Western Europe eventually end up "liking", whether we like it on not (pun intended). If not, they have their bases here... So that was never even an option really.

I am not hostile against Russia, rather I like it, but I would never claim that Ukraine or Belarus ought to be part of Russia unless the people who lived there specifically asked for it...

If Ukrainians and Belarussians are turned off by things like oligarchs and corruption in modern Russia, or possibly their ancestors were treated badly in the Soviet Union or Imperial Russia, just because they were Ukrainians, then perhaps it makes sense that they turn their back to Russia.

it-Ogo is completely clear now, that he has a strong Ukrainian identity and the recent events seem to have triggered or re-inforced it. And there are a couple of people from Belarus popping in occassionally. They don't seem to hamper after Russian citizenship either.

Russia became the victim of the curse of having had an empire and lost it. So many countries had this experience and had to do some soul searching afterwards for decades or centuries even. Who are we now....?
There's Yugoslavia. Scandinavia essentially speaks one language and has a joint history. There are plenty of examples in Western Europe. Belgium. And that's just Europe.


And it's hard to feel THAT sorry for Russia - it's still the largest country... you've got enough

Похоже всё-таки в Славянске правят бал никакие не ГРУ-шники, а самые настоящие казаки-разбойники. Тамошний командир "ополчения" Игорь Стрелков идейный монархист и Путина, оказывается, терпеть не может. Вот некоторые из его высказываний:

Я "присутствовал" при распаде Союза уже во вполне дееспособном (20 лет) возрасте. Уже тогда был сознательным монархистом, но при всем антисоветском настрое, меня одолевали противоречивые чувства. С одной стороны, было удовлетворение тем, что на глазах рушится антихристианское, антирусское, античеловечное в своей основе государство. С другой - понимание того, что оно именно РУШИТСЯ... и под его обломками вряд ли сможет произойти возрождение исторической России. Еще было острое предчувствие, что люди, которые встали во главе "революции", есть плоть от плоти самой гнусной разновидности советской партийной номенклатуры и действуют в сугубо личных корыстных интересах. К сожалению, это предчувствие полностью оправдались.
Вполне сознательно, не смотря на настойчивые приглашения, я не пошел "защищать Белый Дом" в 91-м (хотя меня кое-кто из тогдашних соратников прямо обвинил в трусости и даже "измене").
По моему глубокому убеждению, большевистская власть по сей день остается в России. Да, она мутировала почти до неузнаваемости. Да, формальная идеология этой власти сменила знак на прямо противоположный. Но она остается неизменной в основе: в своей антирусской, антипатриотической, антирелигиозной направленности. В ее рядах - прямые потомки тех самых людей, которые "делали" революцию 17-го. Они просто перекрасились, но сути не изменили. Отбросив идеологию, мешавшую им обогащаться и наслаждаться материальными благами, они остались у власти. А процесс прямого уничтожения русского народа (и других коренных народов бывшей Российской Империи) продолжаетсяю Другими средствами, но настолько "успешно", что оторопь берет.
В 1991 году был переворот. Контрреволюции до сих пор не состоялось.
...нам надо поддерживать Путина? Конечно, нет! Вернее, его можно было бы поддержать - при кардинальной смене им курса, отказа от компрадорского и насквозь проворовавшегося окружения... Но вероятность, что он пойдет на это - ничтожно мала. Вся его политика - это "качели"... он пытается "раздать всем сестрам по серьгам" - и Западу угодить и на "патриотов" опереться... Типичная политика латиноамериканского "диктаторчика", дорвавшегося до власти и никому не желающего ее уступать - потому что рассматривает ее исключительно как "пъедестал для себя любимого".
Но "болото" взорвано изнутри... стоячая вода перемешалась... наряду с гнильем и грязью, наверх выходят и задавленные слои, которые одинаково несовместимы ни с Путиным, ни с его "либеральными оппонентами" (которые суть - всего лишь "разные фланги" одного антироссийского фронта). Мы еще имеем шанс увидеть и ярких новых лидеров и силы, которые пойдут за ними. Голосовать на этих выборах можно за кого угодно - они ничего не решают. Впереди - новая схватка. Стране она обойдется очень недешево... но ... лучше сгореть, чем сгнить.

Похоже, они там решили из Донбасса плацдарм для переворота в РФ готовить. Только этого нам не хватало для полного счастья...