Thread: Future of Eastern Ukraine? / Будущее Восточной Украины?

Let's see if we can predict how this will end....

Nobody can see who voted for which option, so please vote for whatever option you think is most likely...

I think no one can predict this right now. Imho, one thing could help though: if European Union stopped to act like USA's lapdog and started to carry more pro-european policy, it would certainly help to solve the current crisis. Quid prodest, as Romans used to say. It's obvious that neither EU, nor Russia or certanly nor Ukraine will gain profit from current Ukrainian crisis. USA gain visible profits in either outcome: stable and democratic Ukraine as a bridge for strong cooperation between EU and Russian Federation makes USA a spare link in this chain. In the current scenario USA get: 1) scared Europe who needs protection from "evil" Russia, 2) market for their shale gas, 3) reason to put their military bases in Ukraine, Baltics, Poland, Finland, Sweden etc., 4) strong arguments for internal consumption to spend more money on military. And these are only the most obvious profits.

Originally Posted by Basil77

I think no one can predict this right now. Imho, one thing could help though: if European Union stopped to act like USA's lapdog and started to carry more pro-european policy, it would certainly help to solve the current crisis.

I think the events in Ukraine has revealed the true colours of the EU once and for all.
It's certainly crushed any illusions that I had about the EU anyway.

Just pick the option that you think is most likely at the moment - it's anonymous..
I think you can even change your vote later if you want.

Originally Posted by Hanna

Just pick the option that you think is most likely at the moment - it's anonymous..
I think you can even change your vote later if you want.

Sorry, I can't do that because I think that at least 3 of your options currently have quite similar possibilities to become true.

Unfortunately, I can't answer that question. I lost my prediction credibility when I predicted Russian military will withdraw after Crimea would become more autonomous within Ukraine.

Originally Posted by Crocodile

Unfortunately, I can't answer that question. I lost my prediction credibility when I predicted Russian military will withdraw after Crimea would become more autonomous within Ukraine.

It's a strong person who is able to admit that he was mistaken. Just because you were wrong that one time, doesn't mean you always will be! Your prediction for Crimea was perfectly reasonable and realistic. What actually happened was a lot more unexpected.

I think the 2nd and 3rd options will more-or-less have the same result. It's impossible to predict what will happen because we have already seen some crazy turn of events and I would not be surprised if any of these scenerios will come true.

I can't agree with some of your formulations, in particular 2 and 4. It implies that now "Eastern Ukraine" has its own will and ability to implement it. In fact it is now an "area in chaos": people are disoriented and terrorized by Russian diversants destroying the infrastructure and arming and organizing local poorest people and criminals into gangs and directing that gangs with no purpose apart pure destruction.

In my opinion options of 2 and 3 can become available only after achieving option 1. The population most probably would support option 1 if asked (60%) or 2 which is mainly the same. Actual support from population of option 4 is close to 0 but it is possible as a result of massive Russian military invasion. Option 5 has some support (about 20% but unstable) though I don't believe that Putin is crazy enough for that. He is not going to take responsibility for those people, he just decieve them through Russian press to use as tools.

According to the Putin plan, Ukraine must become a federation, but Kiev is still defiant, which is pushing the country to the bottomless abyss of uncertainty and chaos.

Originally Posted by it-ogo

I can't agree with some of your formulations, in particular 2 and 4. It implies that now "Eastern Ukraine" has its own will and ability to implement it. In fact it is now an "area in chaos": people are disoriented and terrorized by Russian diversants destroying the infrastructure and arming and organizing local poorest people and criminals into gangs and directing that gangs with no purpose apart pure destruction.

In my opinion options of 2 and 3 can become available only after achieving option 1. The population most probably would support option 1 if asked (60%) or 2 which is mainly the same. Actual support from population of option 4 is close to 0 but it is possible as a result of massive Russian military invasion. Option 5 has some support (about 20% but unstable) though I don't believe that Putin is crazy enough for that. He is not going to take responsibility for those people, he just decieve them through Russian press to use as tools.

Cheers, ok I'll re-phrase the options if you suggest better wording. I didn't give it too much thought, just put down all possible outcomes that occurred to me.

So the last option is - if you believe it will continue like today indefinitely, or get even worse, i.e. every town is occupied and the UA army on the war path against the protesters etc.
I guess that is that nobody can or wants to do anything to solve the situation. I.e. Kiev can't and Russia won't.


I guess it's a real blessing that there are no moslems living there, else you'd have the jihad brigade arriving too.....

So the most likely future for Eastern Ukraine, according to MR members so far, is a decline into general chaos and/or civil war for the forseeable future. According to "our man in Eastern Ukraine" that's already happened.
Around 10 people died so far. Hope there hasn't been too much damage to property and buildings and that society continues to function.

It's the last option first, then the first option at last. =))

Certain groups at the east of Ukraine, led by { unknown so far } thought they could take too much on themselves deciding on the relationships between different parts of the country they're living in. That's obviously breaking the law, and it's only a matter of time for those groups to be disarmed and stopped. Until then, it's option F); but eventually, it will be option A) anyway.

Originally Posted by Eric C.

It's the last option first, then the first option at last. =))

Certain groups at the east of Ukraine, led by { unknown so far } thought they could take too much on themselves deciding on the relationships between different parts of the country they're living in. That's obviously breaking the law, and it's only a matter of time for those groups to be disarmed and stopped. Until then, it's option F); but eventually, it will be option A) anyway.

You are too optimistic, I’m afraid.)) The touchstone is going to become the forthcoming referendum in the Donetsk region (in case it indeed takes place on May,11) that will demonstrate either impotence of Kiev's junta, or its bloody nature depending on the reaction. What exactly will happen next only God knows at the moment, with a few possible scenarios outlined in the smart nytimes analysis.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/27/wo...sion.html?_r=0

Originally Posted by diogen_

You are too optimistic, I’m afraid.)) The touchstone is going to become the forthcoming referendum in the Donetsk region (in case it indeed takes place on May,11) that will demonstrate either impotence of Kiev's junta, or its bloody nature depending on the reaction. What exactly will happen next only God knows at the moment, with a few possible scenarios outlined in the smart nytimes analysis.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/27/wo...sion.html?_r=0

Sorry, but I just cannot take those separatist clowns seriously. "Donetsk people's republic"? WTF? It's like I and a few of my friends got drunk and declared a people republic of our own. Totally weird and ridiculous. That "referendum" is a comedian show, nothing more. The real and serious question is, if those separatist groups are actually backed up by anyone, and if so, then whom? If they aren't, a couple of days of intensive anti-terrorist therapy should completely bring them down, and show the rest what armed takeover of buildings gets them. If they ARE backed up by a certain country, and that country does invade in case of a counter terrorist operation, well, then at least everyone will see the real face of that country.

Originally Posted by Eric C.

Sorry, but I just cannot take those separatist clowns seriously. "Donetsk people's republic"? WTF? It's like I and a few of my friends got drunk and declared a people republic of our own. Totally weird and ridiculous. That "referendum" is a comedian show, nothing more. The real and serious question is, if those separatist groups are actually backed up by anyone, and if so, then whom? If they aren't, a couple of days of intensive anti-terrorist therapy should completely bring them down, and show the rest what armed takeover of buildings gets them. If they ARE backed up by a certain country, and that country does invade in case of a counter terrorist operation, well, then at least everyone will see the real face of that country.

You seem to seriously overestimate Russian omnipotence in those events and underestimate the role of local oligarchs.)) Even pro-junta sources take the referendum seriously.

"На 30 апреля намечено ключевое событие в сценарии дестабилизации Востока путем "референдума". Заседание Донецкого областного совета, который и должен по замыслу противника инициировать "референдум" по отделению области. Если не будет кворума - то есть если Ринат Ахметов даст команду, то провал сессии будет означать неминуемый провал технологии "референдума". Надеюсь, что руководство Украины понимает, кто является ключевыми фигурами этого спектакля, и проведет более результативные переговоры с депутатами, чем ГРУ РФ",

На 30 апреля намечено ключевое событие в сценарии дестабилизации Востока путем референдума,

Originally Posted by diogen_

You seem to seriously overestimate Russian omnipotence in those events and underestimate the role of local oligarchs.)) Even pro-junta sources take the referendum seriously.


На 30 апреля намечено ключевое событие в сценарии дестабилизации Востока путем референдума,

Well, if it's completely internal business there, then I don't get why the Ukrainian forces are so shy about going in and putting that freak show to an end.

Originally Posted by Eric C.

Well, if it's completely internal business there, then I don't get why the Ukrainian forces are so shy about going in and putting that freak show to an end.

Maybe because the Ukrainian soldiers don't see "freaks" as you say, but civilian people and they are not prepared to shoot at civilians? On the other hand it's Kiev junta who really are freaks. And the army is reluctant to execute the freaks' orders and shoot civilians, on the other hand, they need to show their obedience lest they be accused of desertion. So they also have to participate in this "freak show".

Originally Posted by SergeMak

Maybe because the Ukrainian soldiers don't see "freaks" as you say, but civilian people and they are not prepared to shoot at civilians? On the other hand it's Kiev junta who really are freaks.

Dude, we should let them mind their business inside their country. That's it. Besides, I can't see how the Donetsk junta with AKMs is ANY better.

And by the way, will the authorities in your city be tolerant to you if you take an automatic rifle and go assault administrative buildings on your way?

Originally Posted by Eric C.

Dude, we should let them mind their business inside their country.

Such a great piece of advice! Why don't you follow it? Show me an example, dude! Mind your own business!
As for me, I am ethnically half-Ukrainian, so I'll do as I see fit. Get it, dude?

Originally Posted by SergeMak

Such a great piece of advice! Why don't you follow it? Show me an example, dude! Mind your own business!
As for me, I am ethnically half-Ukrainian, so I'll do as I see fit. Get it, dude?

I didn't know that, so I'm sorry if anything of what I said sounded rude to you.

So, you live in Ukraine? If so, what area? (if you don't keep it a secret, of course)