Thread: The end.

Originally Posted by Antonio1986

Is there a particular reason for this decrease that happened today?

It`s been decreasing since January.
But today it fell on another 10 % (from 58 to 63). Just in one day.

Crimea is a long-term investment based on the reasoning of Cremlin.
The ruble crisis is just temporary. I am pretty sure that they knew that this will happen.

They also "knew" that Ukraine will collapse in two or more equal countries.
And that santions were just a joke.

Antonio, you appear to be not unintelligent, taking into account the things you do for living.
So as an exception I`ll tell you: it`s not about the rouble itself. Currency is just another piece of goods that may be bought or sold. It fell mostly because oil prices went down (and they are not supposed to come back quickly). 3700 (number under normal condition - etc late 2013) \ oil price = rouble. For ex. 3700 \ 62 = 59. The problem is that today rouble fell even further, despite of the fact that Brent stood still.

We had many problems before, and some predicted that unless our government changes its way - something bad will occur between 2016-2018. Then, we started Ukraine campaing. Because our rulers hate any positive examples of revolutions and pro-democracy reforms - once that happened in Georgia and inspired many, so they decided to destabilize them by starting a provocation back in 2008 in the Tskhinvali region or how they call it now South Osetia, now another neighbours decided to be more european, less corrupted and they got "civil war", artificially created by Kremlin. So the sanctions happened which played a role of a catalyzer for upcoming troubles (accelerating the time lapse). It`s like they knew that will probably happen, and took the risk. Being desperate and hoping that europeans won`t do anything serious.

Now we are in big big trouble.

Many dummies here believe that we shouldn`t care much about it. We should work hard, we should be strong and same sh*t (for instance Доллар как много в этом слове / Блог им. Northid / Клуб трейдеров sMart-Lab. Мы делаем деньги на бирже.). The bad thing is that we are dependent from the whole world imports just like any other country. We can`t even bake a piece of bread without using foreign technologies.

We import the huge majority of goods and even things that we produce ourselve are normally made with foreign components, materials or machines... which are being sold to us for dollars.

Moreover, I`ve intentionally posted a picture of RTS index only showing that the catastrophy itself is in economy deep dive - back to the basic numbers (from 1500-2000 to 750 in one year), there are not some minor currency fluctuations.

That means that everything is going to become extremely expensive in Russia and because (as I hope you understand now) it`s not about some Iphones or Parmesan cheese - it`s about anything from german oven to chemicals - then many notable companies will go bancrupt in the following months.

And only god knows what will happen in the nearest two weeks or month.
I didn`t want to make any predictions here, but governments dismission (and Putins escape) is very possible.
The only question is what are we going to do next...

Originally Posted by Serge_spb

It`s been decreasing since January.
But today it fell on another 10 % (from 58 to 63). Just in one day.





They also "knew" that Ukraine will collapse in two or more equal countries.
And that santions were just a joke.

Antonio, you appear to be not unintelligent, taking into account the things you do for living.
So as an exception I`ll tell you: it`s not about the rouble itself. Currency is just another piece of goods that may be bought or sold. It fell mostly because oil prices went down (and they are not supposed to come back quickly). 3700 (number under normal condition - etc late 2013) \ oil price = rouble. For ex. 3700 \ 62 = 59. The problem is that today rouble fell even further, despite of the fact that Brent stood still.

We had many problems before, and some predicted that unless our government changes its way - something bad will occur between 2016-2018. Then, we started Ukraine campaing. Because our rulers hate any positive examples of revolutions and pro-democracy reforms - once that happened in Georgia and inspired many, so they decided to destabilize them by starting a provocation back in 2008 in the Tskhinvali region or how they call it now South Osetia, now another neighbours decided to be more european, less corrupted and they got "civil war", artificially created by Kremlin. So the sanctions happened which played a role of a catalyzer for upcoming troubles (accelerating the time lapse). It`s like they knew that will probably happen, and took the risk. Being desperate and hoping that europeans won`t do anything serious.

Now we are in big big trouble.

Many dummies here believe that we shouldn`t care much about it. We should work hard, we should be strong and same sh*t (for instance Доллар как много в этом слове / Блог им. Northid / Клуб трейдеров sMart-Lab. Мы делаем деньги на бирже.). The bad thing is that we are dependent from the whole world imports just like any other country. We can`t even bake a piece of bread without using foreign technologies.

We import the huge majority of goods and even things that we produce ourselve are normally made with foreign components, materials or machines... which are being sold to us for dollars.

Moreover, I`ve intentionally posted a picture of RTS index only showing that the catastrophy itself is in economy deep dive - back to the basic numbers (from 1500-2000 to 750 in one year), there are not some minor currency fluctuations.

That means that everything is going to become extremely expensive in Russia and because (as I hope you understand now) it`s not about some Iphones or Parmesan cheese - it`s about anything from german oven to chemicals - then many notable companies will go bancrupt in the following months.

And only god knows what will happen in the nearest two weeks or month.
I didn`t want to make any predictions here, but governments dismission (and Putins escape) is very possible.
The only question is what are we going to do next...

My opinion as an economist:
1. The main indicators that define the prospects and prosperity of a country are: (a) Real GDP growth - Unemployment (b) Government Deficit (c) Public Debt (d) Current Account. Based on these indicators Russia is in a better condition than the majority of EU countries, USA and India. But in a worst condition than China and Arabic countries. Regarding the statement that Russia depends mainly on imports, I would like more clarifications, the current account (i.e. Trade Balance = Exports - Imports) of Russia is pretty fine http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...entage_of_GDP: . You have a pretty strong industry and many neighboring countries depend on Russia exports.
2. I don't live in Russia but I suppose that now you have a severe inflation which counterbalances the depreciation of the currency. Now you as Russians have limited purchasing power abroad but foreigners have extended purchasing power in Russia. This will lead to foreign investments (mainly from Germany, India and China given the sanctions from USA)
3. I agree that Russia needs to make reforms and not depend just on its natural resources (especially oil). I would have expect more investment on heavy industry and R & D from Russia.
4. Russia is the second biggest military power. The extension of EU and NATO in Eastern Europe just provoked a "reasonable" reaction from this country. Sadam Husein was hurting the interests of the US Oil Companies in the region leading to the invasion of US in Iraq ... When the Baltic countries entered the NATO I expected a Third World War. Perhaps Russia didn't feel so strong then. But not gospodin Putin has a different opinion

Serge_spb

We can`t even bake a piece of bread without using foreign technologies.

We can. Believe me.
All we have to do is to return to some sort of the iron curtain once again, which is what we are seemingly being provoked to do.
We ARE self-sufficient, no matter of your panic.

Originally Posted by Antonio1986

My opinion as an economist:

May I request your opinion on another issue:
- Is it normal when the government cannot predict the imminent devaluation of currency?
- If yes, then is it normal for government to deny with obstinacy of donkey the gloomy perspective and do nothing to moderate people's losses.

Just for your information: for many recent years, our chiefs are claiming, that rouble is super-solid currency, and "WE PERSONALLY HAVE OUR SAVINGS IN ROUBLE".