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About LinkBackshmm, interesting idea. Didn't think of that.Originally Posted by diogen_
hmm, interesting idea. Didn't think of that.
What perks? How would 'Novorossia' "rise up" and especially without economic/financial help from Moscow which is going to be less and less, probably?
Both territories in Ukraine are in trouble. I don't think the EU nor the USA want Ukraine to default. They don't want a total re-structuring of the economy or the system unless it's patterned off of the EU. The IMF has even given Russia loans in the past. The IMF and EU have thrown bad money at economies and I don't see Ukraine being much different. How that comes to be, though, I would not speculate. But, I would guess that they (USA et al.) would not want Ukraine to default or go 'officially' bankrupt without getting some sort of loan first. Some of the citizens can be volatile so if the new administration defaults and they have even 'less' services available...
This is just speculation, though. What scenario do you foresee with a default?
Geopolitics is much more important for Putin than economy. So, hypothetic new-fledged Novorossia would get tons of help from Russia no matter what. It’s as sure as Strelkov’s gun.))
Everything vital for their survival that Novorossia won’t be able to afford because any import would be way too problematic, so to speak. Fuel for nuclear power plants, for example.What perks?
The current “price tag” is about 32 billion USD.Both territories in Ukraine are in trouble. I don't think the EU nor the USA want Ukraine to default. They don't want a total re-structuring of the economy or the system unless it's patterned off of the EU. The IMF has even given Russia loans in the past. The IMF and EU have thrown bad money at economies and I don't see Ukraine being much different. How that comes to be, though, I would not speculate. But, I would guess that they (USA et al.) would not want Ukraine to default or go 'officially' bankrupt without getting some sort of loan first. Some of the citizens can be volatile so if the new administration defaults and they have even 'less' services available...
Украине грозит дефолт в этом году - Financial Times - Korrespondent.net
ATM, I expect from the “junta” to deflect attention of the population from looming default with a renewal of so-called anti-terrorist operation (I mean the situation when they are sure they wouldn’t get enough refunding from IMF or whoever). Otherwise, they are doomed to stepping down and fleeing to where Saakashvily currently resides. They are literally between the devil and the deep blue sea.This is just speculation, though. What scenario do you foresee with a default?
Some civil unrest ensues...
Of course, just the way his Soviet predecessors did in the Eastern Europe area. The problem was, the money went to their lobbyists rather than actual people there. This time it's a bit more complicated, but as soon as every eastern Ukrainian realizes the language they speak is only secondary (at best) when it comes to their national identity, another geopolitical trick will result in another big piece of losses.
"Deflecting the attention of the population" tricks are going to be extremely useful for a certain else "wise" government, whose geopolitical games have caused the country's entire economy to be running down at the speed of light. I'm really curious what they come up with.
I sense that there is an assumption here that Ukrainian national identity is somehow under threat if Ukraine would lean to Russia.
Should I remind you that the very Ukrainian identity is currently under much bigger threat. First of all the Euromaidan had a goal to actually abandon Ukraine as independent country and move to Europe, hence the name. Second: radical ultra nationalism that is currently present in Ukraine might turn a word "Ukrainian" to "Nazi" or something similar, this was, for example used by the Western people when they called and some still do, Soviet(and now Russian) people as Reds, Commies etc., so even in Russia there is, currently, a lot of negativism toward anything Soviet, so 70 year of national identity is lost and patriotism was not popular for a long time.
Do you believe western money did go to “actual people” and has not been wasted on senseless military buildup and bloody "anti-terrorist operation" since the coup? Also, in what way standard state “usury” is better than “geopolitical lobbyism” for these "actual people"?
Sorry. Your language is really too vague to comprehend. What is “primary” to their identity, what “ geopolitical trick” do you mean, what “losses” they will have to endure, and how it all may occur. Could you please elaborate your possible scenario in more detail. I don’t believe I follow your ideas as you originally produced them without adulterations of my personal “confabulations”.This time it's a bit more complicated, but as soon as every eastern Ukrainian realizes the language they speak is only secondary (at best) when it comes to their national identity, another geopolitical trick will result in another big piece of losses.
Once again, please share your thoughts on what "they” may come up with “us”. One or two ideas on what is going to happen and when it all may come around. I'm just curious what to expect."Deflecting the attention of the population" tricks are going to be extremely useful for a certain else "wise" government, whose geopolitical games have caused the country's entire economy to be running down at the speed of light. I'm really curious what they come up with.
It could be that way, if everyone in the world considered their national pride "radical ultra nationalism", but we both know it's not the case, and also who does think so, and who doesn't.
First, I don't believe the fairy tales saying the anti-Yanukovich uprising was arranged from the outside at all. Then, the country did receive certain help from the U.S. & EU, that's true, and some of that help did go for military purposes, but hey, it's been real insignificant so far (around a couple of billions in total) - Greece alone easily ate up 2 tranches of 100 billion Euros of European money, remember? =)) And moreover, the country now really has to recover their military infrastracture that had been deliberately taken down by Yanukovich's government. So it's not the same as sponsoring a group of terrorists in the eastern area.
That's simple. They're first of all Ukrainians, that's their national identity, and the fact they can speak Russian doesn't make them Russians. Once they all have realized that, there will be no need in the counter-terrorist operation, all the lands will be cleaned up by the locals. And who's going to endure losses will be whoever is investing in the separatism in the area now.
I have no idea myself what they may come up with so far. But they'll have to, that's for sure. In case you don't understand who "they" are - just look around. Go to a nearby bank/exchange office. Make it to a store like H&M, Levi's, Apple Store, IKEA. Look at the price tags. See anything unusual?
"military infrastracture that had been deliberately taken down by Yanukovich's government" - Свечку держал?
Could there be a protest for the calling those people as "terrorists"?
How should people realize their identities, by shelling bombs or by refeferendums?That's simple. They're first of all Ukrainians, that's their national identity, and the fact they can speak Russian doesn't make them Russians. Once they all have realized that, there will be no need in the counter-terrorist operation, all the lands will be cleaned up by the locals. And who's going to endure losses will be whoever is investing in the separatism in the area now.
Can't that "coming up" rekindle Russian economics?
I have no idea myself what they may come up with so far. But they'll have to, that's for sure. In case you don't understand who "they" are - just look around. Go to a nearby bank/exchange office. Make it to a store like H&M, Levi's, Apple Store, IKEA. Look at the price tags. See anything unusual?
Why don't you think they can realize that they are not Ukrainians or Russians but the people of Donbass?That's simple. They're first of all Ukrainians, that's their national identity, and the fact they can speak Russian doesn't make them Russians. Once they all have realized that, there will be no need in the counter-terrorist operation, all the lands will be cleaned up by the locals. And who's going to endure losses will be whoever is investing in the separatism in the area now.
Actually that is not true, not everyone need to think like thatIt could be that way, if everyone in the world considered their national pride "radical ultra nationalism", but we both know it's not the case, and also who does think so, and who doesn't.
And example with "Commies" confirms that
LOL."Terrorists" are locals themselves. If it were otherwise, the US and EU had already suggested a “fair and square” referendum under the UN umbrella or something. Such suggestion will never be given because they absolutely sure that the support of Ukraine is infinitesimally low in Donbas. Referendum is only good when the proper result is guaranteed and it is “officially approved” in advance like those in Kosovo or Sudan, right?
LOL ones again. These people are of mixed origin (half-breeds so to speak) and the Ukraine itself is a new political entity, mostly cobbled up by Soviets and it has several heterogeneous regions in its structure. If these people don’t feel themselves Ukrainians now, they will never “acquire” such realization after massive bombings of their homes perpetrated by semi-nazi Kiev’s regime.That's simple. They're first of all Ukrainians, that's their national identity, and the fact they can speak Russian doesn't make them Russians. Once they all have realized that, there will be no need in the counter-terrorist operation, all the lands will be cleaned up by the locals. And who's going to endure losses will be whoever is investing in the separatism in the area now.
The very same thing happed in 2008 and several times before in Russia. It’s what you can observe in many other oil-producing countries now. Why do you think “they” must come up with something so awful that you dare not write? Still don’t follow you.I have no idea myself what they may come up with so far. But they'll have to, that's for sure. In case you don't understand who "they" are - just look around. Go to a nearby bank/exchange office. Make it to a store like H&M, Levi's, Apple Store, IKEA. Look at the price tags. See anything unusual?
Based on what you said, is your position on the military presence in the Eastern Ukraine that Russian military is not involved in the conflict? To the best of my knowledge, "a group of terrorists" is not the way the official Ukrainian mass-media refers to. Indeed, if those are just "a group of terrorists", you probably don't need that much of the heavy weaponry that the Ukrainian army is so keen of acquiring and utilizing.
So, I'm also inclined to think that very few of the money sent to Ukraine will meet the local people - mostly, the money would be spent on extending and re-enforcing the military, some of it would go to the oligarchs in the form of the government contracts, and the rest will end up in the pockets of the local corrupted officials.
So, more or less, what would happen with Russia's government, too?Based on what you said, is your position on the military presence in the Eastern Ukraine that Russian military is not involved in the conflict? To the best of my knowledge, "a group of terrorists" is not the way the official Ukrainian mass-media refers to. Indeed, if those are just "a group of terrorists", you probably don't need that much of the heavy weaponry that the Ukrainian army is so keen of acquiring and utilizing.
So, I'm also inclined to think that very few of the money sent to Ukraine will meet the local people - mostly, the money would be spent on extending and re-enforcing the military, some of it would go to the oligarchs in the form of the government contracts, and the rest will end up in the pockets of the local corrupted officials.
Russia doesn't actually share the public purse with ordinary citizens. But, many Russian nationals here don't criticize Putin for it. Instead, there's mostly worship.
I don't think ordinary citizens will receive the funds or help either. A Ukrainian government official in the Defence Ministry already claimed a lot of money being stolen. But, this doesn't mean that they're the only corrupt country. Russia's economy is not much better. Without oil, they'd be talking about default, also. I think the loans are not a saving grace. One, they are then enslaved to bankers and two, there is a historical reality that the money never trickles down to the people. They need to start over and they need new 'personnel' in charge, imho. Too many of the old guard are sitting in comfy positions.
It remains to be seen, whether Ukrainians tolerate it. Russians seem to do so. :-/
Except, that you contradict yourself or is this a paradox? Economy is not important? So, with Russia's economy in the toilet, how will they prop up Novorossia? Is there some reason why Russia's economy will improve any time soon?
At some point, they will have to abandon financing Novorossia.
They need 17 or 32 or....the figure is high. I think the increased funding of the military is incredibly insane. Whey they cannot even afford (normally) to fund essential services, they need every last cent to rebuild and strengthen the country, economically. But, I am against that regime (probably, for different reasons than many Russians here) and nothing they do surprises me. I expect Ukrainians to object to their policies eventually but I probably perceive things differently. But, I don't think Ukraine's and Russia's problems are drastically different. Russia has oil but with the prices dropping and now the sanctions, Russia, will have their own economic problems.The current “price tag” is about 32 billion USD.
Украине грозит дефолт в этом году - Financial Times - Korrespondent.net
ATM, I expect from the “junta” to deflect attention of the population from looming default with a renewal of so-called anti-terrorist operation (I mean the situation when they are sure they wouldn’t get enough refunding from IMF or whoever). Otherwise, they are doomed to stepping down and fleeing to where Saakashvily currently resides. They are literally between the devil and the deep blue sea.
Some civil unrest ensues...
The IMF loan, will eventually arrive, although under what conditions and when, who knows. I'd be surprised if that never comes to fruition. They just argue and negotiate what seems like forever until the Government concedes and follow the demanded conditions. The media then spins it and makes it sound like it is just in the nick of time before default/official bankruptcy.
The figure is ridiculous. EU couldn't save the economy of such a small country as Greece with two tranches of 100 billion. What can 17 to 32 billion do for such a huge country as Ukraine?They need 17 or 32 or....the figure is high
Economy is important but some projects can be delayed for a while because of Novorossia (in case it is regarded as of higher priority). Putin still can easily afford to spend 10-20 billion USD on Novorossia without too much compunction this year if he wishes.
It depends on many things. Oil prices is the major factor, as you probably now. As far as sanctions concern, any country can survive without foreign borrowing altogether and Russia is not an exception. Progress may be not so fast but still we can live through. Anyways, even Illarionov believes we may have industrial growth soon.))Is there some reason why Russia's economy will improve any time soon?
Илларионов: Дефолт Украины практически неизбежен. Он наступит в конце января, максимум в феврале 2015 года / Гордон– Меня изумляют такого рода разговоры и ожидания: дескать, Россия вот-вот рухнет, у нее нет экономики, только нефть и газ. Это глубокое заблуждение, совершенно неадекватное восприятие реального состояния дел. Мировые цены на нефть могут упасть и до 20 долларов за баррель, такое уже бывало, но у РФ сохраняются приличные золотовалютные резервы, российская экономика состоит не только из нефтянки и газодобычи. Более того, в последние три месяца в промышленности началось оживление, причем с каждым месяцем темпы его возрастают. В 2015 году в России может быть даже небольшой экономический рост.
They will have to abandon Donbas in order to reduce military expenditures. Such a decision is the inevitable political suicide for the government, in so far as the majority of population is pretty bellicose . They are trapped.They need 17 or 32 or....the figure is high. I think the increased funding of the military is incredibly insane. Whey they cannot even afford (normally) to fund essential services, they need every last cent to rebuild and strengthen the country, economically.
I don't see that the default is inevitable, because a default state is a state when a debtor cannot pay his debts to the lender. But what if the lender doesn't demand the payment? Then the default state can never occur. The west countries might not want to demand the debts because they can afford to lose some little money and get an important geopolitical ally, and Russia might wait with the debts in order to avoid a new confrontation with the west countries.
I agree with you. I am not sure where they get their numbers. But, the latest, I believe is that 17 billion was already in the works and the rest ($15B) is needed.
IMF: Ukraine urgently needs another $ 15 billion aid - News of the economics. Reviews of the economic situation in Ukraine and the world - mw.ua
Later, it will be discovered.... oh gosh.... it is not enough. :-/
Do you have a bridge for sale?
So, Russia, which is in deep recession, an unstable and dropping ruble and an unknown future economic state, has billions to throw around to Novorossiya (which has no economic system that can sustain itself nor any indications that it will soon?)? So, how much is your cheap bridge?
According to you, the only one in deep economic trouble is the 'other part' of Ukraine? Um, okay....
I agree with the Russia 'waiting' part. They can and will wait but the bankers want their money and the IMF want to give out the loan. It is no skin off their back. Everyone wins but the people with these bogus loans and a threat of 'default' UNLESS .... is probably enough to get it done. If not today, then 'tomorrow.' Imho, of course. That's my prediction.
Once again 20 billion USD is not a big deal for Russia, even now. Unlike bridges, Novorossia can be founded only one time in history, and Putin would never miss the opportunity to give it a warm shoulder should he have a chance.Do you have a bridge for sale?
So, Russia, which is in deep recession, an unstable and dropping ruble and an unknown future economic state, has billions to throw around to Novorossiya (which has no economic system that can sustain itself nor any indications that it will soon?)? So, how much is your cheap bridge?
I meant the increased funding of the military is stipulated by the war with Donbas, and until they give it up as a bad idea they can’t drastically reduce these expenditures. For now they are doomed to squandering their very limiting financial recourses.According to you, the only one in deep economic trouble is the 'other part' of Ukraine? Um, okay....
Poroshenko claims,
Один день войны на Донбассе стоит 100 миллионов, — Порошенко - ВидеоЭта война сделала нас сильнее, но нанесла сокрушительный удар по экономике... Ежедневно украинским налогоплательщикам АТО стоит 100 миллионов гривен, - отметил глава государства.
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