Thread: Is default of Ukraine inevitable?

They need 17 or 32 or....the figure is high

The figure is ridiculous. EU couldn't save the economy of such a small country as Greece with two tranches of 100 billion. What can 17 to 32 billion do for such a huge country as Ukraine?

I don't see that the default is inevitable, because a default state is a state when a debtor cannot pay his debts to the lender. But what if the lender doesn't demand the payment? Then the default state can never occur. The west countries might not want to demand the debts because they can afford to lose some little money and get an important geopolitical ally, and Russia might wait with the debts in order to avoid a new confrontation with the west countries.

Originally Posted by SergeMak

The figure is ridiculous. EU couldn't save the economy of such a small country as Greece with two tranches of 100 billion. What can 17 to 32 billion do for such a huge country as Ukraine?

I agree with you. I am not sure where they get their numbers. But, the latest, I believe is that 17 billion was already in the works and the rest ($15B) is needed.

IMF: Ukraine urgently needs another $ 15 billion aid - News of the economics. Reviews of the economic situation in Ukraine and the world - mw.ua

Later, it will be discovered.... oh gosh.... it is not enough. :-/

Originally Posted by diogen_

Economy is important but some projects can be delayed for a while because of Novorossia (in case it is regarded as of higher priority). Putin still can easily afford to spend 10-20 billion USD on Novorossia without too much compunction this year if he wishes.

It depends on many things. Oil prices is the major factor, as you probably now. As far as sanctions concern, any country can survive without foreign borrowing altogether and Russia is not an exception. Progress may be not so fast but still we can live through. Anyways, even Illarionov believes we may have industrial growth soon.))

They will have to abandon Donbas in order to reduce military expenditures. Such a decision is the inevitable political suicide for the government, in so far as the majority of population is pretty bellicose . They are trapped.

Do you have a bridge for sale?

So, Russia, which is in deep recession, an unstable and dropping ruble and an unknown future economic state, has billions to throw around to Novorossiya (which has no economic system that can sustain itself nor any indications that it will soon?)? So, how much is your cheap bridge?

According to you, the only one in deep economic trouble is the 'other part' of Ukraine? Um, okay....

Originally Posted by SergeMak

I don't see that the default is inevitable, because a default state is a state when a debtor cannot pay his debts to the lender. But what if the lender doesn't demand the payment? Then the default state can never occur. The west countries might not want to demand the debts because they can afford to lose some little money and get an important geopolitical ally, and Russia might wait with the debts in order to avoid a new confrontation with the west countries.

I agree with the Russia 'waiting' part. They can and will wait but the bankers want their money and the IMF want to give out the loan. It is no skin off their back. Everyone wins but the people with these bogus loans and a threat of 'default' UNLESS .... is probably enough to get it done. If not today, then 'tomorrow.' Imho, of course. That's my prediction.

Do you have a bridge for sale?

So, Russia, which is in deep recession, an unstable and dropping ruble and an unknown future economic state, has billions to throw around to Novorossiya (which has no economic system that can sustain itself nor any indications that it will soon?)? So, how much is your cheap bridge?

Once again 20 billion USD is not a big deal for Russia, even now. Unlike bridges, Novorossia can be founded only one time in history, and Putin would never miss the opportunity to give it a warm shoulder should he have a chance.

According to you, the only one in deep economic trouble is the 'other part' of Ukraine? Um, okay....

I meant the increased funding of the military is stipulated by the war with Donbas, and until they give it up as a bad idea they can’t drastically reduce these expenditures. For now they are doomed to squandering their very limiting financial recourses.

Poroshenko claims,

Эта война сделала нас сильнее, но нанесла сокрушительный удар по экономике... Ежедневно украинским налогоплательщикам АТО стоит 100 миллионов гривен, - отметил глава государства.

Один день войны на Донбассе стоит 100 миллионов, — Порошенко - Видео

Ukraine default probability drops significantly after IMF announced new financial support packet for Ukraine
https://www.dbresearch.com/servlet/reweb2.ReWEB?rwnode=DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD$NAVIGATION&rwobj=CDS.calias&rwsite=DBR_INTERN ET_EN-PROD

Originally Posted by hddscan

Ukraine default probability drops significantly after IMF announced new financial support packet for Ukraine
https://www.dbresearch.com/servlet/reweb2.ReWEB?rwnode=DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD$NAVIGATION&rwobj=CDS.calias&rwsite=DBR_INTERN ET_EN-PROD

The theory is that the IMF won't loan any money unless they are assured it won't be used for the conflict. So, Russia can delay any loan by helping the rebels escalate or continue fighting.

Originally Posted by 14Russian

The theory is that the IMF won't loan any money unless they are assured it won't be used for the conflict. So, Russia can delay any loan by helping the rebels escalate or continue fighting.

I suspect that default of Ukraine would have helped to end the conflict, and I see nothing wrong with ending the conflict.

Originally Posted by hddscan

I suspect that default of Ukraine would have helped to end the conflict, and I see nothing wrong with ending the conflict.

The best ending by me would be default of the so-called "rebels" and whoever's sponsoring them. I hope I didn't just say anything personal to anybody here.

I guess investors didn't buy IMF's promises
Ukraine's default probability grows as sharp as it dropped

Untitled.png

Originally Posted by hddscan

I guess investors didn't buy IMF's promises
Ukraine's default probability grows as sharp as it dropped

Russia's ruble slides on 'junk' rating downgrade

Russia continues to slide, too. So, the Russian government contributes to destroying two economies....

Originally Posted by 14Russian

Russia's ruble slides on 'junk' rating downgrade

Russia continues to slide, too. So, the Russian government contributes to destroying two economies....

форр ю, май диарр фрренд - Russia stocks Micex best performing 2-15 - Business Insider
I'm gonna go shovel some snow, and then drink some vodka with my pet bear, while playing my balalaika.

Originally Posted by hddscan

форр ю, май диарр фрренд - Russia stocks Micex best performing 2-15 - Business Insider
I'm gonna go shovel some snow, and then drink some vodka with my pet bear, while playing my balalaika.

I know that Russia has a drug problem but I really advise you against using Krok...

Probably the most optimistic outlook article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/03/wo...coff.html?_r=0

But, in reality...
Russia’s economy is so bad it has cut vodka prices - The Washington Post

Morgan Stanley thinks the Russian economy is doomed - Business Insider

Originally Posted by 14Russian

I know that Russia has a drug problem but I really advise you against using Krok...

Probably the most optimistic outlook article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/03/wo...coff.html?_r=0

But, in reality...
Russia’s economy is so bad it has cut vodka prices - The Washington Post

Morgan Stanley thinks the Russian economy is doomed - Business Insider

Interesting reality, looks like two different realities
BI article from Jan 30th claims that Russia is doomed but BI article from Feb 23rd says that Russia is doing great. Quite a recovery for one month.
But, anyway, I would worry if Russia's CDS spreads (currently 517) would reach Ukrainian CDS spreads (currently 2472) or Argentinian (currently 2987)
Those are the real "crappy economy" indexes not some "expert opinions" from Wall St.

Although I doubt that you are ready to talk numbers(or even understand them), keep chewing you propaganda.

Russia to Draw Half Its Reserve Fund to Support Budget - WSJ

Russia to tap $50 billion from Reserve Fund as deficit balloons | Reuters

Russia to Take $50 Billion From Reserve Fund This Year to Plug Swelling Deficit | Business | The Moscow Times

Russia Seeks to Dip Deeper Into Wealth Fund to Cover Deficit - Bloomberg Business

" Russia signaled it would consider allowing Chinese investors to take majority stakes its strategic oil and natural gas fields, reversing years of opposition."

LOL. Another prediction I made that is coming true. Russia (Putin et al. - i.e. the government) is selling out to the Chinese. But, brainwashed Russians don't want to concede their traitorous government. Lots of Russians who stay publicly quiet - or only tell friends (people they trust) that Russia is trash and they are desperate to move. These are views held by citizens in Russia, not foreigners, not Americans. But, Putinoids have their heads in the sand and disregard/ignore such opinions and perspectives by their comrade neighbours. Fools!

Originally Posted by 14Russian

Russia to Draw Half Its Reserve Fund to Support Budget - WSJ

Russia to tap $50 billion from Reserve Fund as deficit balloons | Reuters

Russia to Take $50 Billion From Reserve Fund This Year to Plug Swelling Deficit | Business | The Moscow Times

Russia Seeks to Dip Deeper Into Wealth Fund to Cover Deficit - Bloomberg Business

So, Russia uses its own money to pay for its own bills, takes money from the Reserve fund which was create exactly for that reason.
Let's make a fuss from it say it's a sign of economical disaster.
What a hoot.

Originally Posted by hddscan

So, Russia uses its own money to pay for its own bills, takes money from the Reserve fund which was create exactly for that reason.
Let's make a fuss from it say it's a sign of economical disaster.
What a hoot.

You're either extremely stupid or just pretending.

If you had a bank account of $100 and you had to use $70 or $80 (and this is a 'reserve'/savings), someone might say, oh, wow, he's having financial trouble.

"The increase means that Russia could spend well over half of the fund, currently worth $85 billion, in a *single year* - a rapid run-down of the fiscal buffers that underlines the precarious state of government finances.

Nesterenko said in the worst-case scenario, the Reserve Fund could fall to as low as 1 trillion rubles by the end of the year, implying over 80 percent of the fund could be spent. "

Yeah, I guess that is nothing. Nothing to worry about.... move along....

Originally Posted by 14Russian

You're either extremely stupid or just pretending.

Maybe you are an ignorant idiot or maybe you just pretending

Originally Posted by 14Russian

If you had a bank account of $100 and you had to use $70 or $80 (and this is a 'reserve'/savings), someone might say, oh, wow, he's having financial trouble.

Not if you created this account when you were selling something while prices were high and put some money aside to compensate your sales prices when they are low. It's called compensating risks. Of course if your bank account has been created to be used for something else but you have to use it now to compensate for your sales then you are in trouble but that's not the case we are discussing

It's it. Закроемся от греха подальше.