Thread: Crimea joining the Russian Federation and its implications?

Well, I am convinced by this referendum. It's definitely the will of the majority on Crimea to become Russians. Good luck to them. I hope Russia will treat them really well.

Sure, I can spot that there was no third option on the ballot, and that the campaigning situation gave Russia an edge. Defininitely a lot of money was spent on some very populistic campaigning. But looking at the convincing figures, the high level of participation and the exultation in people celebrating, it's still definitely the will of the majority.

And it doesn't matter if it had been done perfectly by the book.... The EU and USA, and in extension, media in these countries would never have approved of the referendum regardless. Might as well not bother trying.

As for Ukraine ..this type of thing that happens, if a counry alienates minorities and exerts language oppression. The EU collectively knows this, but supported coup makers that they know don't tolerate minorities. I think the EU did Ukraine a disservice, and that many Ukrainians let themselves be manipulated.

Hopefully the new government in Kiev will consider how they treat minority people in Ukraine in light of this.

It wouldn't surprise me if this referendum and the outcome will serve as a catalyst for other European areas that also find themselves in the wrong country, or would like independence. There are plenty.

So this will be the THIRD country that a 35 year old+ Crimean is a citizen of, without actually moving!

Originally Posted by Hanna

Well, I am convinced by this referendum.

Originally Posted by UhOhXplode

I totally do respect the Crimean Referendum and the results.

Well, OK, I understand, you have no experience in voting during foreign military occupation. But at least you can try to think about the following questions.

1) Now there are 15% of Crimean Tatars in Crimea. They are the only native Crimean ethnos. After WWII ALL of them (the whole ethnos) were brought away from Crimea with many casualities and without possessions to elsewhere (mainly to the Central Asia) by Russian (Soviet) militaries (nowadays it is called "ethnic cleaning"). The survivors came back recently and up to now they many times showed their position as anti-Russian and pro-Ukrainian and were very active in public actions etc. Namely just before invasion and after the runaway of Yanukovich they were making intensive anti-Russian mass protests. Now the question: why are they so quiet now and how exactly in your opinion they are distributed among those official voters? If they voted for joining Russia why exactly they are so happy to do it, and if they didn't come to vote, why exactly, and why exactly all other population came about 100%?

2) In the elections before the invasion the pro-russian party of contemporary Crimean "government" gained 3% of votes. What exactly made other 92% of population change their opinion so drastically? (If you say it is the revolution against Yanukovich, remember that the similar revolution in 2004 didn't cause such an effect).

Originally Posted by it-ogo

Well, OK, I understand, you have no experience in voting during foreign military occupation. But at least you can try to think about the following questions.

Were there any information of people being threated or forced to vote one way or another?

Originally Posted by it-ogo

Now the question: why are they so quiet now and how exactly in your opinion they are distributed among those official voters? If they voted for joining Russia why exactly they are so happy to do it, and if they didn't come to vote, why exactly, and why exactly all other population came about 100%?

Yes, why are they so quiet? May be something were offered to them and that offer was accepted? Or you think russian army threatened them with genocide in case of wrong behavior?

Originally Posted by it-ogo

2) In the elections before the invasion the pro-russian party of contemporary Crimean "government" gained 3% of votes. What exactly made other 92% of population change their opinion so drastically? (If you say it is the revolution against Yanukovich, remember that the similar revolution in 2004 didn't cause such an effect).

Did that party had any real power or financial resources for election campaing? Or were they just bunch of blabbers trying to capitalize on pro-russian rhetoric? Didn't Region Party have pro-russian rhetoric (esp. in Crimea), being direct competitor of these pro-russian parties?

Originally Posted by it-ogo

Now the question: why are they so quiet now and how exactly in your opinion they are distributed among those official voters? If they voted for joining Russia why exactly they are so happy to do it, and if they didn't come to vote, why exactly, and why exactly all other population came about 100%?

They've been simply bought. Their leaders have already received several million dollars 'for building a mosque' and I expect they will receive some extra in the near future. Putin gave personal guarantees that their current property will remain 'as is' (which means that everything they had illegally appropriated before will remain theirs de-jure). I'd say this is more than enough to change sides. I doubt they were too patriotic about Ukraine anyway. As for the rest of the population - they all know that salaries and pensions are generally higher in Russia that they had been in Ukraine during Yanukovich's rule and certainly they will be much higher now. Everybody voted by their purse and I don't blame them. I would do the same.

Originally Posted by Ramil

They've been simply bought. Their leaders have already received several million dollars 'for building a mosque' and I expect they will receive some extra in the near future. Putin gave personal guarantees that their current property will remain 'as is' (which means that everything they had illegally appropriated before will remain theirs de-jure). I'd say this is more than enough to change sides. I doubt they were too patriotic about Ukraine anyway. As for the rest of the population - they all know that salaries and pensions are generally higher in Russia that they had been in Ukraine during Yanukovich's rule and certainly they will be much higher now. Everybody voted by their purse and I don't blame them. I would do the same.

You have points, (but it was not you who was asked to think about that). So some militaries came and Putin said: "you see, Ukraine can't protect you from my militaries but you will be allowed to continue with your lives and even to keep your posessions (behold my generosity!) if your behavior satisfies me". Now the next question to our Western readers: can you still support such kind of referendum? Do you still believe it shows the free will of anyone?

And one point to you, Ramil: if those people believed that their votes will really be taken into account (or even registered and counted) by anyone wouldn't they be much more difficult to buy?

My point is: when foreign militaries come and a powerfull dictator makes clear they are here to stay whatever anyone else can think about that, there is no way to make any expression of free will. Maybe crimean population has an opinion (maybe they are happy or not), but the one who now in charge doesn't need it really, and everyone understands that, so we can't reliably find out anyone's opinion. All they can is to relax and try to enjoy the situation.

All we see is nobody in Crimea is ready to spend their lives fighting the Russian army for now. And that is the kind of social agreement dictators usually deal with.

Originally Posted by Ramil

They've been simply bought. Their leaders have already received several million dollars 'for building a mosque' and I expect they will receive some extra in the near future. Putin gave personal guarantees that their current property will remain 'as is' (which means that everything they had illegally appropriated before will remain theirs de-jure). I'd say this is more than enough to change sides. I doubt they were too patriotic about Ukraine anyway. As for the rest of the population - they all know that salaries and pensions are generally higher in Russia that they had been in Ukraine during Yanukovich's rule and certainly they will be much higher now. Everybody voted by their purse and I don't blame them. I would do the same.

Yes, of course. The same way that "Yes to EU" was bought in a number of countries. Public opinion magically turning in just a few months.
I was part of it myself, using populistic arguments and expensive campaigning because I thought at the time, it was the right thing.

I understand that the Crimea vote is partly, or even largely about money, as well as language and nationalism for 40+ people. Nothing new under the sun!

Nevertheless, it DOES reflect the will of the people.

There were international observers in place, obviously not the EU "approved" ones since they would never have been allowed to go there, but political scientists from a wide variety of countries, including countries quite hostile to Russia, like Poland Estonia and Czech Republic. As well as several long standing EU countries. There is no way that whole group would have been hood winked.

Even if you account for any possible irregularities, the participation was high, and the number of votes were overwhelming.

The Swedish main paper who were there reporting, WANTED to find somebody who had voted No to interview, but had to admit they didn't actually anyone. BBC found one woman wearing a full middle eastern style hijab, who voted no. I doubt she'd be any happier in Ukraine than Russia though.

The other point to consider is that none of this would have happened if there hadn't been a coup d'etat in Ukraine. And I very much doubt the coup d'etat would have taken place if the EU and USA hadn't come to cheer it on. They created this situation, and those Ukrainians who were stupid enough to smash up their capital for a coup d'etat one measly year before the next election.

Remains to see if the situation in Eastern Ukraine can be resolved to a level that satisfies the majority, so there is no repetition of this.

Originally Posted by it-ogo

Well, OK, I understand, you have no experience in voting during foreign military occupation. But at least you can try to think about the following questions.

1) Now there are 15% of Crimean Tatars in Crimea. They are the only native Crimean ethnos. After WWII ALL of them (the whole ethnos) were brought away from Crimea with many casualities and without possessions to elsewhere (mainly to the Central Asia) by Russian (Soviet) militaries (nowadays it is called "ethnic cleaning"). The survivors came back recently and up to now they many times showed their position as anti-Russian and pro-Ukrainian and were very active in public actions etc. Namely just before invasion and after the runaway of Yanukovich they were making intensive anti-Russian mass protests. Now the question: why are they so quiet now and how exactly in your opinion they are distributed among those official voters? If they voted for joining Russia why exactly they are so happy to do it, and if they didn't come to vote, why exactly, and why exactly all other population came about 100%?

2) In the elections before the invasion the pro-russian party of contemporary Crimean "government" gained 3% of votes. What exactly made other 92% of population change their opinion so drastically? (If you say it is the revolution against Yanukovich, remember that the similar revolution in 2004 didn't cause such an effect).

I read up on the Crimean tatars. Don't quite get why they should be any more loyal to Ukraine than Russia though? Seems to me they ought to want complete independence for Crimea, or some kind of union with Turkey. As Russian citizens today, in modern times, they have nothing to worry about, and can join with many other minorities to make sure they get their fair share, and some, of the cake! From what I see out of Kiev, they'll have more rights in Russia, and they'll get more support for their culture and language. Maybe Russia should consider compensating them for the treatment they received under Stalin. Europe is full of minorities that were oppressed, treated poorly and had their land conquered and stolen in the past. They are certainly not the only ones. A sincere apology and solid support and commitment for their culture and language is the best that any country can do to make up for the past. My impression is that Russia will try to do that. Otherwise I would be the first to support them in complaining.

As for now, vs 2004.... Yes, it's interesting. You know I am a Pol. Science geek, and this is about as fascinating as it gets...
I think the explanation is:

• The revolution in Kiev, and the destruction.
• EU doesn't offer anything concrete if you scratch the surface. Russia does.
• Russia is much richer now than in 2004 while this cannot be said for Ukraine. Russia can actually offer them a better standard of living.
• The language issue
• Soviet inspired patriotism among over 40s, now directed towards Russia. Singing songs, waving flags and being part of something big...
• People are more confident about democratic rights and standing up for themselves.

With this, I am not saying that Russia is some perfect country, or that I would like MY country to be Russian. What I am saying is that the reasons the Crimeans changed their opinion makes sense to me, and I think this referendum reflects the will of the great majority.

Allowing the revolution opened up a Pandora's box. It seems to me, that losing Crimea is the direct result of the revolution. Areas take this opportunity when they can don't they? For example Finland took the opportunity in the chaos of the Russian revolution.

I hope the situation in Eastern Ukraine can be resolved between Ukrainians without Russia getting involved. Once is enough and I certainly took in what it-Ogo said in a previous post

Also, to it-Ogo I want to say; I totally get that this is emotional and upsetting for you. It's a real pity that it came to it.
Sure, Russia is opportunistic to take advantage of it. But I think Crimea was too big a prize to reject, when it's practically served on a platter!

I also think Crimea was one of the main reasons the EU and USA took an interest in this, but they failed to predict the turn of events. Now, all that remains is a smearing campaign and propaganda war!

They are virtually ignoring the situation in Eastern Ukraine, clearly it's not "interesting" enough, and the people of Ukraine was never their concern, it was about influence - economic and military. I think you are justified to be seriously p-d off with Russia, but I hope you also agree that the EU and USA are serious culprits in this.

Originally Posted by Hanna

Maybe Russia should consider compensating them for the treatment they received under Stalin.

But if Russia took that line of thinking, where wold it stop? Then Russia would have to demand compensation back from the Tartars for all the times in history that Tartars trashed the Slavs! Besides, it was not the Russian Federation that deported the Tartars but the Soviet Union.

Originally Posted by DDT

But if Russia took that line of thinking, where wold it stop? Then Russia would have to demand compensation back from the Tartars for all the times in history that Tartars trashed the Slavs! Besides, it was not the Russian Federation that deported the Tartars but the Soviet Union.

A nice line of thought. I think Russia should declare itself an inheritor of the Huns Empire and raise our claims to all of the Eastern and Middle Europe as far as Italy (Attila DID capture Rome after all).

Originally Posted by DDT

But if Russia took that line of thinking, where wold it stop? Then Russia would have to demand compensation back from the Tartars for all the times in history that Tartars trashed the Slavs! Besides, it was not the Russian Federation that deported the Tartars but the Soviet Union.

Yes, that's a good point. Well, maybe they could do something symbolic. These people have been seriously messed around over the last 100 years, and deserve an apology and recognition for it. Like I mentioned, they are by far the only ones in Europe. Language oppression, eviction from lands etc was quite common up until early 20th century, and later in some countries. You can't undo the past, but you can help the current generation..

Was there any merit to Stalin's suspicions and how did they fare in Central Asia?

However, I read in a blurb about them, that in the 17th century they used to capture entire villages in Ukraine and Russia, and sell the population as slaves to Turkey. Charming! So the question is, how far back do you go with things like this.

Maybe best to just let the past rest. But since they were the most reluctant to changing country, a nice gesture would have been appropriate.


One more observation: Knowing Russian political scientists who are notoriously sharp, on-the-ball and pragmatic, they had a scenario drawn up for exactly this scenario YEARS ago. They didn't start it. But I think they were aware that it was a possibility, and were prepared. And the revolutionaries, the EU, as well as the Crimeans themselves played straight into Russia's hands. What can you say to that? It was darn clever and nobody has been hurt.

Russia gets one of its crown jewels back, and the Crimeans get more money in their pockets, more stability and no language opression. Win-win for all but Ukraine and Nato.

I don't think this was 100% kosher of Russia. But from a political science viewpoint, it is foreign policy at its cleverest. And all the odds here is that everyone will end up better for it. I think it's going to be Christmas for the Crimeans for quite a while to come. With Moscow as Father Christmas. Good luck to them! Hope they get lots of good new hospitals, schools, roads, jobs and whatever else they need!

Originally Posted by it-ogo

1) Now there are 15% of Crimean Tatars in Crimea. They are the only native Crimean ethnos.

I wouldn't call Tatars native to Crimea. They were invaders (as I am sure you know). The Kievan Rus, Slavs themselves predate the Tartars and have maintained their presence ever since. They the Slavs are the oldest natives of this region, whether they are Russian or Ukrainian. The very first people recorded in Crimea were Cimmerians. Even the Greeks predate the Tartars in Crimea. Also, I think 15% is a little high. Most figures tell us that it is 12% https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongol...ates_in_Europe