Thread: Что произойдет в восточной Украине? (Eastern Ukraine?)

A thread particularly focussed on the events in Eastern Ukraine after EuroMaidan and the change of government in Kiev.

I am totally confused and can't determine what's fact, what's hype, what's wishful thinking and what's lies.

I don't trust any Western media and I don't fully trust Russian news on this either...

Some questions:
—What is the mothertongue of most people in Eastern Ukraine, i.e. Donetsk, Kharkov, Lugansk.
—Can they speak the other language and how hard is it - is it a sensitive issue / big deal?
Are there people there who actually regard themselves as Russian, like people in Crimea? Or do they regard themselves as Ukrainians with Russian as mothertongue?
—How can Kiev satisfy the demands of the protesters in Donetsk and is it necessary?
—What exactly are the goals of the protesters in Eastern Ukraine?
—Are they really being discriminated or are they just exaggerating?
—Why are they so against the new government and the change, what exactly is it they fear?
—How many are happy to be Ukrainians ans how many are hoping of a repetition of Crimea?
—Can Putin be trusted when he says that Russia will never enter Eastern Ukraine?
—What is the economic situation for people in Eastern Ukraine. Are most OK, or really struggling to cope?

Все эти вопросы задают сейчас также и жители России. Надо немного подождать, время покажет и даст ответы на многие вопросы.

Originally Posted by Hanna

Some questions:

Disclaimer: I live in Russia so I'm biased. I won't even pretend to be free from the propaganda infuence.

—What is the mothertongue of most people in Eastern Ukraine, i.e. Donetsk, Kharkov, Lugansk.

Here's the language distribution map:


—Can they speak the other language and how hard is it - is it a sensitive issue / big deal?
I think you can speak any language you want. I don't think there's really a problem with different languages in Ukraine.

Are there people there who actually regard themselves as Russian, like people in Crimea? Or do they regard themselves as Ukrainians with Russian as mothertongue?
There are Russians, there are Ukrainians, there are Tartars and there are a dozen more various nationalities who live there. Intermarriages happen quite frequently. Regardless of what nationalists say, the former USSR has very high percent of common genes.

—How can Kiev satisfy the demands of the protesters in Donetsk and is it necessary?
Hanna, how can a government (any government) satisfy the demands of regional population? Depends on the government, I guess.

—What exactly are the goals of the protesters in Eastern Ukraine?
Better life, ultimately. Security, safety, stability. They disagree upon the methods to achieve that I'm afraid. Some see that the best way is to join Russia, some think that the federalization of Ukraine is the only way out of the situation, some say that Ukraine must remain unitarian, etc.
The politicians are all idiots because the people who truly know how to govern a state work as taxi drivers usually.

—Are they really being discriminated or are they just exaggerating?
There are really some facts of discriminations but the media exagerrates them 'just a little bit' (out of proportions sometimes). Generally the media lies. All media.

—Why are they so against the new government and the change, what exactly is it they fear?
Instability, insecurity, changes to the worse. Many fears are inspired by the media. Many fears are true, in fact. That too - they didn't vote for this 'new government'. They fear that this 'new government' are thiefs (this is probably true).

—How many are happy to be Ukrainians ans how many are hoping of a repetition of Crimea?
Dunno, really. Statistically speaking there bound to be the happy ones there. I don't think it's even possible to answer your question objectively.

—Can Putin be trusted when he says that Russia will never enter Eastern Ukraine?
Reasonably you can trust these words. Generally - you can't trust any politician. If the situation changes tomorrow he'll forget about these words. But it's in his best interests not to allow this situation to deteriorate so badly.

—What is the economic situation for people in Eastern Ukraine. Are most OK, or really struggling to cope?
Well, right now the situation with the economics can be described as 'totally f.cked up'. (really I don't even wish to pick another word for the description).

—What is the mothertongue of most people in Eastern Ukraine, i.e. Donetsk, Kharkov, Lugansk.

These 3 regions are mostly Russian-speaking. You visited Odessa and Kiev for example and you should experienced that Odessa is mostly Russian speaking and Kiev is about 50/50. But if you look at Ramil's map the area wich shown as Ukrainian speaking is not so homogeneous either. In Chernigov and Sumy they speak a mix of Ukrainian and Russian. I'd say it's Ukrainan, but with many Russian words instead of Ukrainian. For example I never heard they say "дякую" there ("thank you"), only "спасибо". Also from my experience people in cities and industrial towns there use more Russian words while people in villages use more Ukrainian words. When I came to Ukraine for the first time I almost couldn't understand language spoken at Ukrainian TV but I could easily understad what "Ukrainan speaking" people say around me.

—Can they speak the other language and how hard is it - is it a sensitive issue / big deal?

Russian is understood by 100% of population. Most Ukrainian speakers can also speak it without any noticable accent except using soft Ukrainian "г" sound instead of hard Russian one, but many people in south Russia also speaks with such "г".

Are there people there who actually regard themselves as Russian, like people in Crimea? Or do they regard themselves as Ukrainians with Russian as mothertongue?

Actually there are not much differences between eastern Ukrainans and Russians besides language. For example about 30% of Russians in Russia has Ukrainan heritage. People with Ukrainian surnames call themselves Russians in Russia while Russian-speaking people with Russian surnames in Ukraine call themselves Ukrainan. It's all very complicated and depends on political preferences mostly.

—How can Kiev satisfy the demands of the protesters in Donetsk and is it necessary?

I doubt it. I feel very sorry for protesters in Donetsk, Lugansk and Kharkov, because there are already cruel repressions against them being done and it's only the beginning. For example there are some reports that the guy whom they elected as "people's governor" on some meeting and who was arrested and dragged to Kiev was tortured till death already.

—Can Putin be trusted when he says that Russia will never enter Eastern Ukraine?

I doubt he can be trusted after he said just a couple of weeks ago on press-conference that Russia is not going to annex Crimea.

Thanks guys!
This is like a political soap opera playing out on TV before our very eyes..... And It-Ogo is living right in the middle of it.
It's crazy... I just hope it works out in such a way that people are better off afterwards.

I don't know about Russia, but this crisis has brought out the absolutely worst in the EU. They are stirring things up and making promises they will never be able to keep, and threats they know are nonsense. Meanwhile this is probably the biggest come-uppance for Russia in at least two decades.

Have you heard anything more about potential "refugees" from Ukraine to Russia?

I actually didn't hear anyone speak Ukrainian in Odessa or Kiev. At least that I noticed. Maybe because I didn't do much other than walk around and check out the sights and do some shopping. However everything written was in Ukrainian in Kiev.

Originally Posted by Hanna

Have you heard anything more about potential "refugees" from Ukraine to Russia?

Billions of them cross the border every day.

Statistic of using Ukrainian dialect (by yandex.ru, 2010):



As you can see, 80-90% of the people use Great-Russian dialect in everyday situations. Even in such russophobe regions as Ivano-Frankovskaya they use Ukrainian dialect only for 30%.
It's not an official statistic, of course, just for your information.

Also there is an official conclusion of some European commission (I don't remember how it's named), according to the conclusion, Great-Russian dialect is native for more than 80% of the Ukrainian citizens (I don't remember exact numbers, it's something like 83% or 87%).

Paul, this map doesn't give you the representation of actual speakers. If I query Google in English simply because I cannot find necessary information in Russian doesn't mean that I'm an elf in Mordor English speaker in Russia. They query in Russian because there is far more information available in Russian than in Ukrainian.

Another thing that is so totally ridiculous about all this is that several countries pretend like they are in some kind of grave danger of a "Russian invasion" because of the events in Crimea (that were obviously a once-in-a-lifetime completely unique situation, and hardly a hostile invasion.)

I don't know if they are so silly as to genuinely believe that Putin would randomly strike out at Estonia, Poland or Finland just for the heck of it (because Russia *really* needs more pine forest.... ) or if they are playing a game, in that case, to what end?

It seems a lot of people almost WANT to play Cold War v. 2.0 and Crimea is the perfect excuse.

Cold War suited everyone. It was 'them and us', 'good and evil', 'black and white'. And all problems could be shrugged off as 'the actions of our enemies'.
Some people think it will be easier to live in a black and white world.

Hanna, please stop speaking about "invasion". It's a vocabulary of Ukrainian Nazis and the Western Media.
There was no invasion at all, Russian troops are situated in Crimea for more than 20 years according to the Agreements between Russia and Ukraine. Moreover, if we consider history of Crimea, we will see that the Russian military base has been existing more 200 years. Of course, an every of those bloody American and European politicians knows that. They keep repeating bullshit about invasion because they are moral bankrupts so they need to hide this fact at any cost.

Could anybody shed a light on why the mobilization in Ukraine was needed? I mean, by no chance Ukraine could ever take Crimea back military.. To stop potential Russian invasion into the Eastern Ukraine (which they could not and a couple of C-300 won't help)? Or, maybe to use the military to 'restore order' in some of the Eastern Ukrainian cities? Are there any indications so far?

Originally Posted by Paul G.

Hanna, please stop speaking about "invasion". It's a vocabulary of Ukrainian Nazis and the Western Media.
There was no invasion at all, Russian troops are situated in Crimea for more than 20 years according to the Agreements between Russia and Ukraine. Moreover, if we consider history of Crimea, we will see that the Russian military base has been existing more 200 years. Of course, an every of those bloody American and European politicians knows that. They keep repeating bullshit about invasion because they are moral bankrupts so they need to hide this fact at any cost.

It's as close to an invasion as you can get. So what if they are situated there? How many times did they threaten Ukrainians back then from being in the area? How many times did they fire warning shots? Also, the referendum was probably rigged - 120% voter turnout? LOL Also, no option for 'status quo' - even though that would be a low percentage vote. It still needs to be an option. Pootin just utilizes the illusion of 'democracy' to get the desired result. But, of course, you Putinoids are rarely objective. There's a lot of Russian sites that even express this (check vk) so it's not 'Western' propaganda or 'Russophobia' as you'll contend. It's common sense (Deleted. L.).

Originally Posted by 14Russian

It's as close to an invasion as you can get. So what if they are situated there? How many times did they threaten Ukrainians back then from being in the area? How many times did they fire warning shots?

These "warning shots" were against some stupid Ukrainian soldiers who were provoking a conflict. All the commands of the illegal Government are criminal, so to prevent the Ukrainian squads from doing foolishness, Russian troops blocked their Ukrainian colleagues and partially disarmed them.

Also, the referendum was probably rigged - 120% voter turnout?

This bullshit about 123% was derived from a mistake made by the official of Crimea. He pronounced (only one time) the numbers wrong right on the air, thus this mistake was immediately multiplied by the enemies of Russia.

P.S. Read this for your education: Invasion of Grenada - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, (Вытерто. Л.)

Originally Posted by Ramil

Paul, this map doesn't give you the representation of actual speakers. If I query Google in English simply because I cannot find necessary information in Russian doesn't mean that I'm an elf in Mordor English speaker in Russia. They query in Russian because there is far more information available in Russian than in Ukrainian.

As far as I understand it is Yandex statistics that is the statistics of the search engine used almost exclusively by Russian speakers. Google is more popular in Ukraine actually - I have seen the statistics somewhere.

Originally Posted by 14Russian

Also, the referendum was probably rigged - 120% voter turnout? LOL

This is so ridiculous, spiteful and arrogant that it makes me think of a pre-programmed bot.

If you had watched the thing on TV, or bothered to read a paper, you would have seen that the participation was in the early 80s per cent which makes perfect sense in light of it being a really important referendum.

Here you go, they are beginning to struggle to keep up the propaganda spiel. http://www.aftonbladet.se/kultur/aag...cle18576708.ab

Originally Posted by Crocodile

To stop potential Russian invasion into the Eastern Ukraine (which they could not and a couple of C-300 won't help)?

At least to make an effort. That's what they say anyway.
Яценюк предупредил Путина, что попытка захватить Восток приведет к полноценной войне - Новости Украины. Главное�

Originally Posted by Hanna

—What is the mothertongue of most people in Eastern Ukraine, i.e. Donetsk, Kharkov, Lugansk.

Russian. As well as in the most Ukrainian big cities including Kiev.

—Can they speak the other language and how hard is it - is it a sensitive issue / big deal?

There is no problem in reading/understanding Ukrainian but speaking is more difficult as almost noone in the East actually speaks Ukrainian and there is no practice.

Are there people there who actually regard themselves as Russian, like people in Crimea? Or do they regard themselves as Ukrainians with Russian as mothertongue?

When people here say "Russian" or "Ukrainian" mostly they don't mean nation (like it is in Europe). Mostly it means ethnic backgroung (=национальность) which is a formal parameter that doesn't depend on one's choice. You see, in USSR we had a paragraph in our internal passports "национальность" and it mostly was automatically defined as "национальность" of the father (as far as I remember). And it has nothing to do with either mothertongue or citizenship or self-identification. There is no such paragraph in contemporary passports but the habit persists. There is a tendency to mean actual citizenship by "Ukrainian" but it is not a mainstream yet.

—How can Kiev satisfy the demands of the protesters in Donetsk and is it necessary?
—What exactly are the goals of the protesters in Eastern Ukraine?

I don't know about their goals. I don't know personally any protester and info about their demands comes contradictory. The sane formulations I remember are "to join Russia" or "to have more decentralization - more rights for the regions". The first one depends on Poo's tanks and "green humanoids", not on Kiev. The second is actually already accepted by Kiev as a goal (before Crimean invasion). But it requires changes in Constitution that requires a national referendum. As far as I know referendum is impossible with a part of the country is occupied by the enemy. So I have no idea how exactly it can be overcome.

—Are they really being discriminated or are they just exaggerating?

Who is exaggerating? Russian TV just produces complete gibberish. What is discrimination? You can speak Russian wherever and whenever you like (unless you are a professional talking head in specifically Ukrainian-language TV show or like, but there are abundant Russian-language TV shows for you). There are more literature comes in Russian than in Ukrainian and Russian is actually way more widespread than literary Ukrainian (not accounting for all kind of dialects and mixtures). Positions of Russian in Ukraine are stronger than positions of the Ukrainian. The "only state language is Ukrainian" problem is a frantic attempt to save Ukrainian (as a national symbol) from complete vanishing (like it is going on with Belarussian in Belarus).

—Why are they so against the new government and the change, what exactly is it they fear?

I doubt they fear anything. Maybe they want Russian wages which are supposedly higher or just enjoy participating in disorders?

—How many are happy to be Ukrainians ans how many are hoping of a repetition of Crimea?

Happy? Nobody is happy. But there are people who understand that they are responsible for their lives and country. And there are many people who don't care where to live just want to live better. Maybe most stupid of the latter for some reason hope that uncle Poo will come and happily share with them his oil-and-gas incomes.

—Can Putin be trusted when he says that Russia will never enter Eastern Ukraine?

Well... before I relied on his sanity and common sense but after Crimean invasion I can expect everything.

—What is the economic situation for people in Eastern Ukraine. Are most OK, or really struggling to cope?

Depends on your standards. If compared to the first half of 1990-s we all are insanely rich. All who survived 1990-s.

Originally Posted by Paul G.

These "warning shots" were against some stupid Ukrainian soldiers who were provoking a conflict. All the commands of the illegal Government are criminal, so to prevent the Ukrainian squads from doing foolishness, Russian troops blocked their Ukrainian colleagues and partially disarmed them.



This bullshit about 123% was derived from a mistake made by the official of Crimea. He pronounced (only one time) the numbers wrong right on the air, thus this mistake was immediately multiplied by the enemies of Russia.

P.S. Read this for your education: Invasion of Grenada - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, (Вытерто. Л.)

I repeat. One more time I have to delete personal insults, you'll be banned for 7 days.

I can confirm from today's phone-talks: there are massively military presence at Konotop, Putivl, Sumy and Belopolye (check the map below). Soldiers are digging trenches and so.






People from these towns who told me that (they are my good friends and relatives) say that soldiers and even officers are totally demoralised, even guys from western regions have zero will to fight with "Russian agressors". They are all discussing the main problem: should they desert or surrender to Russians (yes, they really belive that it's an invasion incoming). I feel really sorry for them.