Thread: " Иранку могут забить до смерти камнями за измену мужу"

Second page of the transcript:

"STEPHEN KINZER: But how do we get there? Of course that’s the question we’re trying to figure out. My idea is that unless Iran feels that it’s getting something from around the table, then it’s not going to enter into negotiations.

CHARLIE ROSE: That’s a good point. So what is it that we ought to give Iran in terms of negotiations?

STEPHEN KINZER: The big problem we have to get over is if we’re going to deal with Iran we’re going to have to compromise. We won’t get everything we want. I think that’s what’s holding us back.

CHARLIE ROSE: Compromise on what?

STEPHEN KINZER: Here’s what I think they would bring to the table. We want an end to threats against us. We want to be invited into the World Trade Organization and into regional security mechanisms.

CHARLIE ROSE: Without preconditions? That’s what we’d like.

STEPHEN KINZER: The preconditions would be you’ve got to accept international control of your nuclear program and cool your support for militant groups in the Middle East.

But Iran also wants to see the U.S. out of that region. And we’re desperate to get out of Iraq and out of Afghanistan. Iran can help us because Iran not only has the ability to be destabilize Iraq but it has great ability to stabilize Iraq.

CHARLIE ROSE: What does one mean when it says we want to get out of the region?

STEPHEN KINZER: We want to get out of our military engagements in those two countries.

CHARLIE ROSE: Right. The military is one thing. We want to be a player in the region the same way we want to be a player in Asia where China is the dominant power.

STEPHEN KINZER: Absolutely. That’s true. America cannot walk away from the Middle East. That’s what makes this problem so important. We can’t continue trying to get new results with old policies.

Now, let me just say this. Is Iran now governed by a regime that is really eager to make compromises and looks like a good negotiating partner? Of course not. Whether we can get anywhere with this regime is still, as
you say, a very open question.

But I would say this. Let’s look forward to the longer term future. The political development in Iran is not over yet. I’m just back from Iran, and I got a clear sense that this regime will be in power for some time, but not forever.

Here’s what people in Iran told me. We went out in the streets. We tried, but it didn’t work. So we’re going to get the change we want but it’s not going to come soon. I would sail it will be a period of some years, and what this tells me if we want to deal with Iran in that period, this is the regime we’re going to have to deal with.

CHARLIE ROSE: That’s also the recommendation of --

STEPHEN KINZER: Yes, it is. I think it doesn’t mean there’s an obvious solution out there. It means that Turkey and Iran over long run have a lot in common with our long-term interests.

And I think as I was just reminded in my recent visit to Iran recently that Iran is definitely the most pro-American country in the whole Middle East if you look at the will of the people, the opinion of ordinary Iranians. I stood on street corners, and as soon as I said I was an American, people gather around me and shout out things like, as one girl told me, "We love America so much."

CHARLIE ROSE: That’s clearly, I mean, there are all kinds of people who testify to that point. How do we do that? There’s a dilemma. Do those people who love America, what did they want America to do?

STEPHEN KINZER: That’s the key question. I agree 100 percent. That’s just what I asked them. What can we do to help you?

And everyone told me the same thing, which is leave us alone. We cannot be seen as lackeys or pawns of some foreign power. In Iran that delegitimizes anybody.

So please -- and the other thing they told me was don’t isolate our regime. I think if those people were to tell us the opposite, don’t talk to our leaders, isolate them, we would have to listen to what they’re
saying.

CHARLIE ROSE: So you’re saying that the people in the street would want this U.S. administration to talk to the people in power in Iran.

STEPHEN KINZER: Absolutely. There’s no doubt in my mind that the democratic movement in Iran realizes it’s in a very bad position, it has no good options, and the best of the bad options would be for the regime somehow to be drawn out of its fear and paranoia.

If the people in Iran tell us to isolate the regime, maybe we should. But the ordinary people and the democratic leaders in the opposition eagerly want U.S. engagement with their regime, and we should be listening to them.

CHARLIE ROSE: OK, so we reset our relationship with Iran and with Turkey. What else do we need to do for our future?

STEPHEN KINZER: I’ve got two other suggestions. One has to do with the Arab world.

CHARLIE ROSE: Why am I not surprised by that?

(LAUGHTER)

STEPHEN KINZER: I think we’ve become a little bit too suffocating close to Saudi Arabia and some of their Arab countries. What I’d like to see is a realization by the U.S. that allowing democracy in the Middle East and in the Arab world, which we’re very afraid of, is actually not a bad thing.

We fear that it will produce an Islamist alternative, and I think that fear is justified in some countries. But that’s something these countries have to go through, and the longer you postpone that, the more radical that
explosion is going to be.

The other country of course that you have to deal with Israel, and I believe it is in America’s interest to be the long-term friend afternoon ally and supporter of Israel.

When I was in Israel doing research for this book, one thing that I noticed in the public opinion in Iran, and I think you’re seeing a little of this in Israel too, is that there are many Israelis who are start to go ask whether the policies of their government that are taken to resolve immediate urgent security problems are actually creating larger problems for the long-term future. I truly --

CHARLIE ROSE: The long-term future of Israel?

STEPHEN KINZER: Of Israel. I believe Israel will not be able to defend itself forever by only military deeds. The best long-term guarantee for Israel is a stable neighborhood. And therefore anything that the U.S.
or others can do to calm the Middle East is actually good for Israel.

CHARLIE ROSE: Do you believe that’s exactly what the Israelis want, a stable neighborhood?

STEPHEN KINZER: Yes, I do. I really think that they feel they have a position to defend, but Israel feels very besieged. The world needs security concessions both Iran and Israel, but countries only make security concessions when they feel safe. And it should be in our interest to try to do to make Israel and Iran feel safe.

CHARLIE ROSE: How do people make Israel safe when their borders are so close, when they have had the experience they’ve had?

STEPHEN KINZER: If we had a clear answer to that I guess we would have done it by now. I think the one thing we can do is try to calm down the countries that terrify the Israel the most. At the top of that list is Iran.

In a way in an odd sense Iran and Israel are in one way a comparable position. There are countries in the Middle East that a lot of their neighbors don’t like, and they’re the countries in the Middle East that a lot of countries in the world don’t like. There’s a lot of anti-Israel and anti-Iran emotion in the world now.

But forcing these countries into corners and denouncing them and sanctioning them and making them feel alone and friendless doesn’t serve the long-term cause of peace.

CHARLIE ROSE: So where is Syria in all of this?

STEPHEN KINZER: I think Syria can be a much bigger player than it is now. But Syria faces a problem that the whole Arab world faces. It’s actually one of the reasons why Turkey has been able to emerge. The
countries that should be the leaders in the Muslim Middle East like Egypt, possibly Syria, Iraq, even Pakistan, are decomposing and are isolated and are in dictatorial political situations.

That has left a vacuum for Turkey. If the Arab world can get the democracy train that’s been going all over the world to stop there, then I think Syria could become a great partner for the west.

And Turkey has just abolished restrictions for Syrians. Turkey is becoming a kind of a big brother for Syria. Turkey can be our bridge into Syria too as it can be to many countries in the Middle East. I see Syria as a country if we can play a more positive role there can develop a good relationship.

CHARLIE ROSE: If you talk to many parties in the same way that Turkey is.

STEPHEN KINZER: It is.

CHARLIE ROSE: And the Syrians like the Turks a lot.

STEPHEN KINZER: A lot of people like the Turks. When you go to a country like Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, it’s amazing how many different factions want to talk to the Turks.

CHARLIE ROSE: Iraq -- how do people perceive this country, which has enormous economic potential, which is making its way towards some kind of new democracy, some kind of a democracy, has sectarian conflict? How do people seal its future in the region?

STEPHEN KINZER: I think there is a combination of hope and fear. Of course there are outside actors that are meddling in Iraq very deeply. Of course, we’re one of them, but there are also others on the other side.

CHARLIE ROSE: How are we meddling? Haven’t we made a commitment to lead or not?

STEPHEN KINZER: We’ve made the commitment. I think we’ll still keep soldiers there. And I can see once we’re there we don’t want to leave and create chaos.

CHARLIE ROSE: Doesn’t the president want to get out of Iraq?

STEPHEN KINZER: Absolutely. But we cannot get out of Iraq and we cannot get out of Afghanistan without the cooperation of other countries in the region. You’ll never be able to do it alone. And like it or not, Iran
is a big player in that region, and they can make life miserable for us in Iraq, or if they want to, they can be our ticket out of Iraq.

CHARLIE ROSE: But it used to be said that who won the Iraq war was Iran. That was the short answer. But at the same time there is this notion that seems to be proving true as well. Iraq is not prepared to march in lock step because of fellow Shiites with Iran. It clearly is not. They’re not a satellite of Iran.

STEPHEN KINZER: I think that is great.

CHARLIE ROSE: Is it true?

STEPHEN KINZER: It is true, I think. There are prominent leaders in Iraq who are very tied to Iran. Muqtada al-Sadr is living in Iran. Many of those Shiite leaders in Iraq spent years during the Saddam dictatorship
living in Iran. So Iran has great contacts with the Shiite factions. But Turkey is very well tied in with the Sunni faction.

CHARLIE ROSE: And so are the Saudis.

STEPHEN KINZER: There they are. The potential in Iraq is for the countries in the region to strike some balance among themselves in order to calm this country.

CHARLIE ROSE: Thank you very much.

STEPHEN KINZER: Great to be with you.

CHARLIE ROSE: "Reset -- Iran, Turkey and America’s Future."

Originally Posted by Lampada

This question to Misha makes me nervious. Hanna don't we know that Internet is not such a secure or safe place?

It's nice that you look out for forum members!

But is Iran really like USSR under Stalin? I mean, that people can't even express an opinion?

Plus: It's quite hard work to trace people online. You need a lot of resources and incentive. The person would have to be suspected of something quite major for it to be worth it. Ideally it needs cooperation from the site owner.

It's really only reasonably feasible if the both the site and the person are in the same country.

Alternatively the ISP can usually see what sites you visit but not precisely what you did there.

Using a separate proxy, or a VPN tunnel more or less solves that problem. I have read that people in China do that when they want to be sure to have online privacy.

I think it's a very good idea for most people to use a proxy when surfing the internet.

I2P and TOR offer completely anonymous and very safe internet browsing, but it's quite slow.