Thread: demography in russia

demography is obviously a key factor to the growth rate of a country.
russian people don't make enough babies (the problem is far worse than, say, germany where it's already severe).

what do you all think? will russia find a way to reverse the tendency (by keeping men who have two babies out of the military draft for instance)? will asian immigration compensate (the recent figures in immigration are really bad)?

I think I can solve the problem single handedly (but id rather do it old fashion).

Originally Posted by possopo

(by keeping men who have two babies out of the military draft for instance)?

I believe a law like that already exists.

Fertile women of Russia, flock to me!

Originally Posted by VendingMachine

Fertile women of Russia, flock to me!

Aren't you an author of "Flirt and the Village" series?

no one got my pun?

YES! Beautiful fertile woman flock to me!!!

Russians won't make more babies until the wages and lifestyle in Russia improve to the point where they can feed and house 2 babies.

Originally Posted by possopo

demography is obviously a key factor to the growth rate of a country.

What kind of "growth rate" you mean?
If you're talking about economic growth, this is obviously untrue.

Originally Posted by possopo

russian people don't make enough babies (the problem is far worse than, say, germany where it's already severe).

what do you all think? will russia find a way to reverse the tendency (by keeping men who have two babies out of the military draft for instance)? will asian immigration compensate (the recent figures in immigration are really bad)?

There is popular theory, what, according to some western economists, the "economically rentable population of former USSR is 15-20 mln".
Most frequently these words are attributed to Margaret Thatcher.

Who knows, did she (of some other influental person) said something like this actually? Or it's just a myth?

Originally Posted by JB

Russians won't make more babies until the wages and lifestyle in Russia improve to the point where they can feed and house 2 babies.

Russians can feed and house 2 babies. We simply don't want them in such quantities. So the birth rate is dropping, so what? Nations come and go. Been this way since time immemorial.

Russia's lack of affordable housing and low wages make having even one baby burdensome.

Originally Posted by JB

Russia's lack of affordable housing and low wages make having even one baby burdensome.

What do you mean lack of affordable housing? Do you think we live in dugouts?

Low wages? Yep, they're low compared to what you have in the US, but as Einie used to say, everything is relative - quality food and consumer goods are much cheaper here in Russia than in the US and we have a wider selection. Someone who earns 12K in Russia can easily afford the same lifestyle you can afford in the US only if you make at least 120K. Having babies isn't burdensome at all, it's simply not in these days, it smacks of the 19th century working class philosophy so much.

The average Russian annual salary is a lot less than 12k and 1 room flats in Moscow start at $50,000 (purchase price, old, no modern remont). The new morgage plan (to help young families) that went into effect this year is still too expensive for most. I know one young couple that has a baby that got a one room flat on this plan but their morgage is $600 each month for the next 15 years. Having babies is not out of fashion, just expensive and hard work. Food is cheaper than in America (I pay about 600p a week for 2 people) but all other consumer goods are almost the same price in Moscow as they are in America.

Originally Posted by JB

The average Russian annual salary is a lot less than 12k

Well, I certainly didn't mean a bomzh kind of family. I meant a normal family. Anyone who earns less than 12K is a total loser.

and 1 room flats in Moscow start at $50,000 (purchase price, old, no modern remont).

I find that dirt cheap.

The new morgage plan (to help young families) that went into effect this year is still too expensive for most.

Not surprised, it's a ferkin scam, this plan.

I know one young couple that has a baby that got a one room flat on this plan but their morgage is $600 each month for the next 15 years.

Like I said, that's dirt cheap. Anyone I know could easily afford it. But this plan is a ferkin scam. Personally I prefer upmarket property in respectable neighbourhoods. I don't fancy buying hovels in slum districts.

Having babies is not out of fashion

It is. I know the latest trends far better than you do. I happen to live in Russia while you've only seen Russia on TV.

just expensive and hard work.

Hard work? Since when is having sex hard work?

Food is cheaper than in America

Of course it is. And a lot healthier too.

(I pay about 600p a week for 2 people)

No way. 600p is nothing. I spend something like 7000p - 9000p for myself as a very bare minimum (my wife buys her own food) You can't possibly survive on less than a 1000p a day.

but all other consumer goods are almost the same price in Moscow as they are in America.

Don't know about Moscow (and frankly, I couldn't care less), but in St Pete all consumer goods are of superior quality and cost far less than in America. Last week I bought a superb Loewe TV set for only a coupla thou for my new malachite bathroom.

VM, either you are joking (most probably) or you are completely unaware of economic situation in Russia.
According to you, the overwhelming majority of Russian are total losers. Well may be. But stating that does not help. Russia does not consist of only Msk and SPb, which is good for you and bad for them (the provinces).
But I believe that it is mentality that determines the demographic situatuion, not the economy.
My grandfather had 10 siblings, of which about a half survived (the rest of them died of starvation and diseases) and became adult. A half of 10 is still not bad, isn't it?
In the past, this situation was quite common. Parents tried to produce as much babies as they can in a hope that at least some of them will survive. Well, and they had no contraception.
But now we don't think of our children in terms of numbers, we think in terms of personalities. We prefer not to create a new life at all than to create a bad one.

Scorpio wrote:

What kind of "growth rate" you mean?
If you're talking about economic growth, this is obviously untrue.

yes, i mean economic growth. why am i wrong?

europe's babyboom boosted the economy.
us immigration is boosting the economy.
being a young nation (meaning you have few elders and lots of youngsters) have a major weapon, that is their labour force.
why is china becoming a major actor in the world economy? because there are a lot of chinese.

JB wrote:

Russians won't make more babies until the wages and lifestyle in Russia improve to the point where they can feed and house 2 babies.

usually, the poorer you are, the more babies you make. that works for countries (more babies in poor countries) and households (in rich countries, the poor make more babies than the rich).

so the eastern europeans births' deficit is a huge problem for the economy. they don't fit the theory.
the kremlin issued a survey that says the dramatic russian demography is going to harm russian economy in the next 20 years.

Originally Posted by pisces

VM, either you are joking (most probably) or you are completely unaware of economic situation in Russia.

I am well aware of the economic situation in my country and I'm not joking. I maintain that whoever earns less than 12K is a loser and has only himself to blame. I come from a very poor family, but my parents taught me never to sit on my arse doing sh*te, but to get on my bike and go and look for work.

According to you, the overwhelming majority of Russian are total losers.

All my mates make well over 12K. I don't know anyone earning less than 12K. The chap that sweeps the streets in our elite neighbourhood makes 14K. Of course, I can't speak about everyone as I clearly do not know every person in this country, but I do know some and I can observe and I can extrapolate.

VM, come to Nizhny Novgorod and restart your extrapolations from here. The result will be surprisingly different. If you are aware of economic situation, you should know that our society has very high level of stratification. Wages for equal work in capital (or nearly-capital as SPb) are several times bigger than in regions. I don't complain about this - neither people are born equal nor they ever become equal. It's a decree of nature and not the reason for laments.
And consider that Nizhny Novgorod is the third biggest city in Russia. The situation in smaller towns is even worse. Of course you can say something like "if you're unsatisfied with you income - work hard and move to Moscow or SPb", but entire Russian population physically cannot move to 2 cities. And even if it could, this huge human resource supply would drop the wages to the same average level.

pisces, I was living in the country, not in St Pete when I made it big on the Forex market for the first time. Your location has nothing to do with your success.

P.S. People who are used to sitting on their backsides all day will come up with all kinds of explanations of why they're so poor. You know, I've heard their stories, I've had them up to here.

I personally do not know anybody who earns less than 12K. And I see more than 100 thousand cars in 200 thousand town... Even in buses I see people in furs, almost everybody has cell phone, and that's in one of Russian distant regions.

Of course things I mentioned aren't really a luxury, but where's total poverty we're told about? I don't really know.