Thread: Что произойдет в восточной Украине? (Eastern Ukraine?)

Originally Posted by Crocodile

Опять-таки, тут я с тобой соглашусь в теории. Практика же (см. выше мой ответ ит-ого) тех, кто являет собой модель для подражания в интерпретации демократии и цивилизованного мира показывает, что это не является обязательным. Собственно, все пошли нахер и в Ираке (США) и в Ливии (ЕС), так, что так дела, к сожалению, делаются в цивилизованном мире. Ну, а как только контракты на украинские газовые месторождения были отданы Shell и Shevron и возникла возможность уменьшать зависимость от поставок российского газа в Европу.. Увы.

Границы Ирака или Ливии изменились?

Originally Posted by Serge_spb

Границы Ирака или Ливии изменились?

Границы не изменились. Захватывать и удерживать надо целиком, зачем делиться с кем-то? Например, на Гавайях:

Originally Posted by en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legal_status_of_Hawaii

The legal issues regarding Hawaii's international standing are complex. While many scholars and legal experts feel that the case for legal independence is clear, the practical ability to actually assert such independence is difficult. Some complicating factors include:

• The continued presence of the U.S. military in Hawaii;
• The assumed reluctance of the U.S. to give up its claim to Hawaii, legal or not;

Кроме того, вот РФ упрекают в разных вещах, в том числе и в том, что она пытается вернуть свергнутого Януковича. Смотрим пример цивилизованного решения подобной проблемы и ищем 5 различий:

Originally Posted by ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9E%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%86%D0%B8%D1%8F_% C2%AB%D0%9F%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%B4%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B6%D0 %BA%D0%B0_%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BC%D0%BE%D0%BA%D1%80%D0% B0%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%B8%C2%BB

Операция «Поддержка демократии» (англ. Operation Uphold Democracy) — вторжение войск США на остров Гаити с целью возвращения в эту страну законного президента Жан-Бертран Аристида, свергнутого военной хунтой.


В 1990 году Жан-Бертран Аристид выиграл президентские выборы, получив 67 % голосов.[...]
Однако его семимесячное правление было отмечено явным террором, включая известное «надевание бус» (надевание горящей автомобильной покрышки на человека), для уничтожения политических оппонентов и использование уличной толпы для запугивания гаитянского парламента и судебных органов. Гаитянские военные выступили против своего президента. Аристиду предложили либо уйти в отставку, либо предстать перед судом за неоднократное нарушение конституции Республики Гаити. В присутствии нескольких послов иностранных государств, Аристид решил уйти в отставку и покинуть Гаити. 30 сентября 1991 года он был смещён, бежал в Венесуэлу, затем в США. Америка была нацелена на возвращение своего человека во главе Гаити.


К берегам острова подошли 20 боевых кораблей ВМФ США, в том числе два авианосца. 19 сентября 1994 года более 60 военно-транспортных самолётов взлетели с базы Форт-Брэгг и взяли курс на Гаити. Но через несколько минут был дан отбой, воздушная армада повернула назад. Генерал Седрас распорядился разобрать баррикады и не препятствовать высадке американского морского десанта, призванного осуществить смену режима. В тот же день 3 тысячи морских пехотинцев высадились на Гаити. Сопротивления они не встретили.

Вот ит-ого постоянно обвиняет меня в том, что я использую метод дискуссии "сам дурак". Но, согласись, учить всех как правильно жить может лишь тот, кто своим примером, своими действиями доказал правильность и жизнеспособность того, в чём он убеждает других. Поэтому, не стоит удивляться, что эта система Big Lie распространилась. Все стороны беззастенчиво врут. И всё получается как бы симметрично. Кто же в этой истории прав? За кого мы должны ломать копья? Вот ит-ого говорит, не за кого, а против кого. Против РФ - "To remind of the rules". Но не за временное правительство Украины - "я же не подписывался под действиями правительства Украины". А ты что-нибудь можешь предложить?

I think it's complete double standard of the EU and US to ENCOURAGE a coup d'etat against a democratically elected government in Kiev, then make a big stink when others in the same country want to protest against discrimination and concerns regarding the new undemocratic new regime.

The EU is supposed to be a big supporter of democracy - but that is clearly only when the "right" leaders are in power. When people vote for somebody the West doesn't like; i.e.Yanukovich, Morsi, Hamas.... then it's encourage to have an undemocratic coup d'etat.

What I can't get over is that nobody else among Europeans, journalists etc view it this way.
I mean; either you are for democracy, or your are not. Either you think it's ok to overthrow bad regimes, or you don't! What they are using is "situaional logic" i.e. constructing the ideological stance to fit their (economical and power) agenda.

I am so fed up with what a bully the EU has become. And it's so undemocratic that it is pathetic, with people like Lady Ashton not being elected whatsoever. So who is the EU to point fingers at Russia or anyone else?

I don't care what Eastern Ukraine does, but I think they deserve the same respect for their rights as the rest of the country and I am sure they'd appreciate stable, competent and non-corrupt leadership for a change. Perhaps they should just go it alone.

Ukraine is just a farse and Russia has many bad sides to it - primarily corruption.
They could have their own republic, at their terms. If there are 7-10 million inhabitants there, then they are the size of Switzerland, Sweden, Belarus or Austria. That's a pretty nice size for a country.


What do people in Ukraine think about the elections in May: Do you expect them to be honest and fair? Are you going to vote yourself?

Originally Posted by Hanna

What do people in Ukraine think about the elections in May: Do you expect them to be honest and fair? Are you going to vote yourself?

I think that Russia will do anything to break any kind of elections or referendum in Ukraine. If miraculously it will not succeed I will go and vote.

Originally Posted by Hanna

What do people in Ukraine think about the elections in May: Do you expect them to be honest and fair? Are you going to vote yourself?

I do not trust our government to organize honest and properly regulated elections.
Even if they manage it I'm almost positive, that regardless of results there'll be accusations about electoral frauds. There've been virtually no elections in Ukraine, where failed party haven't started screaming "Not fair" and demanding re-elections. It's like people have no grasp of the idea of "final decision".

Unfortunately, there's a good possibility that I won't be able to vote (because of distance and territorial issues).

I am neither particularly pro-west (nor pro-russia), but for those claiming that Russia plays no active (and physical) role in the unrest in East-Ukraine, this is quite disingenious. In my opinion both sides have been meddling - but I think there is no denying that there is a presence of russian military forces (albeit unmarked) and equipment in the region. The previous argument that Russia had a right to 'forces on the ground' by 'contract' only relates to the Crimea. So why is Moscow denying it?

Originally Posted by eisenherz

I am neither particularly pro-west (nor pro-russia), but for those claiming that Russia plays no active (and physical) role in the unrest in East-Ukraine, this is quite disingenious. In my opinion both sides have been meddling - but I think there is no denying that there is a presence of russian military forces (albeit unmarked) and equipment in the region. The previous argument that Russia had a right to 'forces on the ground' by 'contract' only relates to the Crimea. So why is Moscow denying it?

Moscow denies many things obvious. It is called "Big lie" technique. It works the following way: Russian citizens that watch Russian TV only will believe anything they are told. Other people's opinion is ignored. Russia invades Ukraine and no other country is ready to use its army to protect us, despite of guarantees from NATO, so their politicians will look for excuse for not doing it. And Russian lie will provide the material for the excuse. So politicians will say something like "Russia has a point too, we must take into account all viewpoints, let us find a compromise", so they will be able to keep their face and not look like obvious failors.

Originally Posted by it-ogo

Moscow denies many things obvious. It is called "Big lie" technique. It works the following way: Russian citizens that watch Russian TV only will believe anything they are told. Other people's opinion is ignored. Russia invades Ukraine and no other country is ready to use its army to protect us, despite of guarantees from NATO, so their politicians will look for excuse for not doing it. And Russian lie will provide the material for the excuse. So politicians will say something like "Russia has a point too, we must take into account all viewpoints, let us find a compromise", so they will be able to keep their face and not look like obvious failors.

WOW!!! o_O
So you support Kiev's POV, which is a perfect example of "Big lie" technique in itself? How are you less brainwashed than those "Russian citizens"?
Ukrainian official media presents only one point of view as well, and EU takes this one-sided POV for gospel, believing those ridiculous tales about "invasion" and "poor oppressed Ukrainian citizens".

The last examle of extreme hypocisy of Ukrainian government is their declaring Crimea an occupied territory "to protect people", which in fact strips Crimeans of any rights, and prohibits all kinds of everyday activities under the treats of criminal prosecution - among them are selling or buying things, working for any state institution (aka "working for occupants"), which covers all kinds of occupations, including teachers in public schools & medical personel, and others.

What I see in this actions is a spiteful desire to "punish" local population under pretense of "protecting" them (with EU and USA supporting this pretence game). Now they are trying to "protect" South-East of Ukraine in a similar manner (or rather to salvage the territory. The people? Who cares...).

Originally Posted by gRomoZeka

WOW!!! o_O
So you support Kiev's POV, which is a perfect example of "Big lie" technique in itself? How are you less brainwashed than those "Russian citizens"?

Err... "Big lie" technique is not about POV. It is about... well... lie. When Russia states that there is no giant army concentrated on our border it is a "Big lie" because everybody can see that army on satelllite photos. When Russia stated that there are no Russian militaries on the streets of Crimea it was a "Big lie" because everybody was able to see specifically Russian armor cars on those streets on photos. "Big lie" is about stating obvious and overwhelming lie and insisting on it hardly untill some people stopped to believe their eyes. Ukrainian powers are unable to use that technique because they don't have the monopoly on the information. For example one evening SBU made a statement that there are 60 hostages and a bomb in captured Lugansk administration building. Next day nearly ALL Ukrainian media checked the statement, and published that it was wrong. And that was all. It was an attempt of lie but it failed.

Ukrainian official media presents only one point of view as well, and EU takes this one-sided POV for gospel, believing those ridiculous tales about "invasion" and "poor oppressed Ukrainian citizens"

Weren't heavily armed militaries attacked police station in my city four blocks from my home an invasion? Am I not oppressed by continuous danger, stopping with great efforts my wife from panic, my moter in law getting heart attack, and my former student taken away from his home in captured Slaviansk by unknown military to nowhere and disappered?

(Вытерто. Л.)

Originally Posted by it-ogo

For example one evening SBU made a statement that there are 60 hostages and a bomb in captured Lugansk administration building. Next day nearly ALL Ukrainian media checked the statement, and published that it was wrong. And that was all. It was an attempt of lie but it failed.

That is fantastic! So, what officials were specifically responsible for distributing the Big Lie? Do we know their names? Were they prosecuted in court? Was any investigation or legal case open against them? Is the public protected in any way from being manipulated that way in the future?

Do you really think people in Eastern Ukraine are so LAME that they can't organise an uprising if they want, without the help of Russia? The Western Ukrainians and Kievans could, so why shouldn't the Eastern Ukrainians be able to?

I don't think Russia has sent anyone there, because I don't think Russia has an agenda of annexing the area. If anything, I think Russia would prefer them to calm down and simply participate in the elections and vote for a pro-Russian government. Why would Russia want some average size heavy industrial cities and a few mines.... Doesn't Russia already have PLENTY of that? Crimea was a completely different cup of tea - it was unique, and it was a matter of national pride for Russia, and it's strategic.
That's how I perceive the difference, anyway.

And what is so strange about some of them appearing semi-military? Or officers?

I don't know, but I am guessing that Ukraine has compulsory military service for at least 9 months, probably more. I know that the USSR had compulsory military service. So the majority of the male population will have done a year or more in the military. Obviously based on that they can "appear as military" if they want to. And among all these men there will be ex special forces, officers and people who can comptently organise the taking over of a police station - particularly if the police aren't even motivated to resist them.....

Originally Posted by it-ogo

I think that Russia will do anything to break any kind of elections or referendum in Ukraine. If miraculously it will not succeed I will go and vote.

It's good to hear that you will vote at least - I guess the ultimate sign of total disillusionment is when people don't even bother to walk to a voting hall and vote (hm... when did I last vote....) Keep your head up and stick to your principles. I can't even imagine all the stuff that people in Ukriane have to suffer through. If it was me, I would probably gone insane or escaped the country a long time ago. So kudos to you.

Originally Posted by Hanna

I don't think Russia has an agenda of annexing the area.

Of course they have not. It's not the area, it's the Ukraine, the whole of it. At the very least, all of the East and the South. It is worth it, isn't it?

Originally Posted by E-learner

Of course they have not. It's not the area, it's the Ukraine, the whole of it. At the very least, all of the East and the South. It is worth it, isn't it?

You think Russia wants ALL of Ukraine?! And planning something military, in secret?
Seriously?

Like "USSR v2.0 (capitalist edition)" or "Imperial Russia 2.0 (fully revised digital edition)"

Nope, I don't believe that for a second. And I don't think the population of Russia would be back that whatsoever.

I think there is about 1 / 10 chance that all hell breaks lose in Ukraine and Russia ends up doing some kind of "peacekeeping" intervention and ends up annexing some more territory, perhaps following another referendum.

But it's quite possible that NATO would get involved if that happened. I don't think Putin would risk that - it seems quite insane. He's more pragmatic than that.

Like I said - they are more pissed off with Russia right now than they have ever been in my entire life. The blackpainting and demonising of Russia/Putin is complete.

NATO must have had some VERY grand plans for Crimea, considering how pissed off they were at having it snatched from right under their nose. I bet they were planning the mother of all foreign US bases right there in Sevastopol!

Originally Posted by Hanna

You think Russia wants ALL of Ukraine?! And planning something military, in secret?
Seriously?

I don't know. Maybe all of it is an improvisation.
Anyway, if possible, they will prefer non-military and "half-military" means.

I think there is about 1 / 10 chance that all hell breaks lose in Ukraine and Russia ends up doing some kind of "peacekeeping" intervention

At the moment, it does look like one of the cards being played.

NATO must have had some VERY grand plans for Crimea, considering how pissed off they were at having it snatched from right under their nose. I bet they were planning the mother of all foreign US bases right there in Sevastopol!

I don't know about that but I believe the rest of the Ukraine is no lesser prise.

Originally Posted by Hanna

Do you really think people in Eastern Ukraine are so LAME that they can't organise an uprising if they want, without the help of Russia? The Western Ukrainians and Kievans could, so why shouldn't the Eastern Ukrainians be able to?

I AM the one from Eastern Ukraine. So, please don't say "they" when speaking to me, say "you". And WE did the uprising in Kiev as well along with people from other parts of Ukraine. 2 of ~100 protesters killed at Maidan were from my city.

There is a great difference between people's uprising and military operation. In Kiev WE saw natural uprising with some support (like food etc) from business. Here WE see foreign military operation by people from outside leading some deceived locals. There is a kind of uprising but without giant militatry, informational, financial and organizational help from outside it were ended shortly - with some demonstrations. There are different organization, different methods, different weapon, different tactics and different society. And world politicians are not so LAME to not understand it.

I don't think Russia has sent anyone there, because I don't think Russia has an agenda of annexing the area.

To think or not to think is your choice. The events are going around me and I know what I see and what I hear. You can enjoy your nonconformism, your theories and viewpoints as you like, but here we have the real life.

Originally Posted by it-ogo

I AM the one from Eastern Ukraine. So, please don't say "they" when speaking to me, say "you".

I was referring to Eisenherz post, not yours in specific, and used the words "you" in a generic way. I am perfectly aware that you are from there.

Like I said to you before, I totally respect your viewpoint and understand that probably at least half of the people there feel like you do. Nevertheless there are clearly a lot of people who are prepared to take big risks and go to a lot of trouble to for different views than yours.

Like I said to you before, I totally respect your viewpoint and understand that probably at least half of the people there feel like you do. Nevertheless there are clearly a lot of people who are prepared to take big risks and go to a lot of trouble to for different views than yours.

Witness: I saw the tiger from jungle entered the house, killed the man and partly devoured his body.
Attorney: I totally respect your viewpoint and understand that probably at least half of the house inhabitants there feel like you do. Nevertheless there is clearly the cat in the house who is prepared to take big risks and go to a lot of trouble to for different views than yours.

I witness that the guys that made actual armed violence are not from here. They look different, act different, speak different, they don't know local customs and geography. They don't discuss anything, they just make orders to their followers. When they are asked about their goals they reply mostly: "I am not the one in charge of answering". They don't make deals with locals, they demand complete obediance. They don't let local press (from the town) in the captured buildings, only Russian press. They say: "we don't need Khokhols (Ukrainians) here."

Their followers are happy to follow orders. They are completely sure to follow Russian militaries. There are people for "federalization" and unhappy with Kiev but they mostly sit at home as they are sane and responsible. Those who obey orders of greenies want to join Russia. If you ask them about "Donetsk republic" or "federalization" they say: "oh, yeah, Donetsk republic, federalization, yeah, definitely - that is what we are for". And put on Russian flags. They are not much but they are who on the streets and who sit in the official buildings cleared by armed squads. I believe they are deceived.

We have the situation here that "everybody knows" that Russians lead the protesters and ready to obey. They know it from Russain TV channels that are used to be popular here. The channels broadcast all the way about helping Russian brothers oppressed, tortured and killed in Ukraine. And that is the engine of all the people on the streets. The superpower express its intentions clearly. All Russian TV channels call people on the streets "our heroes", their opponents "fascists", "junta" etc. - no other ways of treatment. The reports are ridiculous with hundreds of killed at each event, and many obvious fakes.

Originally Posted by Hanna

Do you really think people in Eastern Ukraine are so LAME that they can't organise an uprising if they want, without the help of Russia? The Western Ukrainians and Kievans could, so why shouldn't the Eastern Ukrainians be able to?

I'm neither Ukrainian nor eastern Ukrainian, but I think here's what's going on. Even if we assume that Russia hasn't directly sent anyone to eastern Ukraine, those 2 "uprisings" are pretty much different by the goals and methods of implementation. While the Kyiv one was definitely a pro-Ukrainian one that simply targeted to put down Yanukovich's government, which the people thought was more of a burden than any sort of help for the Ukrainian people, the eastern one is more tricky, but by far it's clear that they (I don't mean all eastern Ukrainians by any means, but just those "fighters") don't really consider themselves Ukrainians, and don't really want to live in Ukraine, and they actually want to get separated from Ukraine, and it can easily be viewed that many of them would want to join Russia. Now, it's clear that it's NOT an internal argument in the country, it's Ukrainians on one side, and "those people" (whoever they are) on the other side. Now, speaking of their methods, I wonder how many people from the Maidan (the Kyiv uprising) were armed with AK-47 and similar weapons? How many of them stole weapons including grenades and such? How many of them actually used weapons for attacking purposes? How many of them took hostages to achieve their goals? That is all what those "eastern guys" have been doing.

Originally Posted by Eric C.

How many of them took hostages to achieve their goals? That is all what those "eastern guys" have been doing.

Took hostages? I think respecting other users of the forum by reading their previous posts and keeping yourself up-to-date might not be a bad idea.

Originally Posted by it-ogo

For example one evening SBU made a statement that there are 60 hostages and a bomb in captured Lugansk administration building. Next day nearly ALL Ukrainian media checked the statement, and published that it was wrong. And that was all. It was an attempt of lie but it failed.

Originally Posted by Crocodile

Took hostages? I think respecting other users of the forum by reading their previous posts and keeping yourself up-to-date might not be a bad idea.

Thanks Croc, of course I should've seen that post, and if I had, I would've certainly reformulated my question. I just hope there have not been other episodes like that, because I've actually heard of several incidents with taking hostages.