Thread: Что произойдет в восточной Украине? (Eastern Ukraine?)

Originally Posted by Crocodile

That is one of my principles in life.

So finally you are not just asking question. You have some principles and don't go to overcome them. No?

Originally Posted by it-ogo

So finally you are not just asking question. You have some principles and don't go to overcome them. No?

Show me a person without any principles. I will try my best to steer clear of them...

Originally Posted by it-ogo

So finally you are not just asking question. You have some principles and don't go to overcome them. No?

Ok, ok, you got me. Do you really want my recipe for what Ukrainians should do under the circumstances? Ok, hear the peoples for the Great Crocodile will tell you exactly what to do with your lives blah-blah-blah..

First, Ukraine should recognize the annexation of Crimea. But, there's a catch - Crimea nationalized Ukrainian public property (stole that is, oh why? is the government really full of criminals?), so there are two legal things Ukraine should demand:

1. The independent estimate of the property nationalized, and
2. The independent estimate of the yearly losses to Ukraine (e.g. the excavation of natural gas deposits).

Then, once the monetary equivalent is established, Ukraine should demand contributions from Russia (and there would be plenty of room for negotiations on that). Then, if Russia does not comply, Ukraine (and other countries) have the full right according to the international law to issue seizures of Russian property worldwide as compensation.

At the same time, Ukraine should slice its army to about a third of what it is now. That would not compromise the country's security as the recent events clearly showed that Ukrainian defence forces are next to being useless furniture in case they are needed, but they eat a considerable amount of the budget pie on the regular basis. Instead, Ukraine should follow Israel's example: get free money from the US in order to purchase the old US-made weapon and only spend efforts on modernizing that. That way Ukraine's spendings would go to develop the internal IT and applied sciences market to improve on the control of the military vehicles (mainly for the Air Force). In 20 years, Ukrainian air force might become somewhat competitive with Russian air forces.

Somehow, I'm pretty sure Ukraine's initiative would be greeted with applause throughout the world.

That way Ukraine will kill two ducks in one shot:

1. Ukraine will stop its regular contribution to Crimean's budget, and
2. Ukraine will get hefty amounts which could be put in the pocket of Ukrainian politicians spent on improving Ukrainian infrastructure.

So, after hearing only one of the possible alternatives could you really support of what is happening instead?

Originally Posted by Crocodile

So, after hearing only one of the possible alternatives could you really support of what is happening instead?

Nope. I mainly agree to your analysis with some additions maybe. But Ukrainian society should survive the hysteria first and put it down in some way (providing that Mr. Poo will spend giant resources to keep it on the same level). Until that no politicians are able to make sane statements and actions and not lose the position. That is the downside of the notorious checks-and-balances machine that actually works in Ukraine even if in a specifis way.

Originally Posted by it-ogo

But Ukrainian society should survive the hysteria first and put it down in some way (providing that Mr. Poo will spend giant resources to keep it on the same level). Until that no politicians are able to make sane statements and actions and not lose the position.

Ok, so I think first we have agreement in principle that Ukraine has many legal options (above was just one possible, maybe not even close to be the best one). And the above scenario, however anti-Russian that might sound, might actually be very beneficial for Russia as well. Previously, the gas price agreements between Russia and Ukraine were unclear with the uncertain future. In the new situation, Moscow could just continue to pump the gas with the old prices, but now everybody will understand the fixed amounts and the purpose. So, as usual, that legal stuff could actually improve the relationship between Moscow and Kiev as opposed to what's happening today. And, like I said, the room for the price negotiation could also play well распил и откат in favour of the Russian and Ukrainian criminals in power political elites.

See? A transposition of the conflict from the domain of political ambitions into the domain of financial ambitions could play well for both sides as the transformations applied in the financial domain (when transposed back) could yield to the benefits in the political domain. The full effect of which is yet to be studied.

Just say 'no' to the assault rifle!