Very sadly, I think we might be seeing the beginning of Cold War 2.0.
Russia is playing into the hands of those who love to hate it...
Is Crimea that valuable and do the people of Crimea really care that much?
The USA, and in extension the EU will now have something very concrete to point to. If there is ONE person in Crimea who is against this occupation, they will find that person and plaster their story in every Western paper.
If a Russian soldier drops a banana peel that somebody slips on and breaks their toenail, it will be blown up to mortal assault on civilians.
I imagine that Russia will make whatever it plans on Crimea permanent. Let's face it, that was the piece of land Russia most regretted losing after the USSR, wasn't it? I have no doubt that this is not purely about protecting possibly persecuted Russian speakers. I believe that Russian military was very happy for this excuse to take Crimea. Whether Crimea should ever have been given to Ukraine is another question, but it was an historical fact.
The Russian activities on Crimea is jackpot for those who hate Russia. Up until recently, the "gay propaganda law" and some vague mumbling about South Ossetia was their main points.
They have just waited for a "genuine" "invasion" that is permanent, and is difficult to explain away.
It will be the perfect excuse to stack up the missiles in places like Poland and run NATO exercises in the Baltic sea and on Russia's borders.
The anti-Russia rhetoric will increase x 100 after this. And it might have some really serious long term results in surrounding countries.
I am MORTIFIED at the thought of Sweden and Finland abandoning the official neutrality (even though it's fake) and joining NATO for real. This will definitely be used as a justification of Russia's "aggressiveness" for the population. There will be months of reports about the menace of Russia until people give in...
I don't even want to know what Baltic and Polish papers are writing about this..