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Thread: Почему распался Советский Союз? Что происходит в Прибалтике, и немного истории

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    Skimmed through the last link - what Hudson actually recommends is - to restart "fat years" again - thank you very much.
    Not try to not live higher that you can afford (even if it hurts in a short term), but fuck that - let's begin "public investment" - i.e. pedal-to-the-metal, print money, start double-digit inflation, forget about joining Eurozone, etc...
    Серп и молот - смерть и голод!

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    Старший оракул Seraph's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nulle View Post
    Skimmed through the last link - what Hudson actually recommends is - to restart "fat years" again - thank you very much.
    Not try to not live higher that you can afford (even if it hurts in a short term), but fuck that - let's begin "public investment" - i.e. pedal-to-the-metal, print money, start double-digit inflation, forget about joining Eurozone, etc...
    This is not what Hudson and Sommers recommend. You have to know what denomination of national/public debts in foreign currency means to your economy, in order to see what he actually recommends. And you have to know what he is talking about concerning dysfunctional tax policies.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric C. View Post
    Yes, I forgot to specify, Americans' incomes. That is not illegal immigrants'.
    Provide source. And data collection method. In American statistical reporting, there are various official methods. Ones that are based on tax documents, necessarily do not include people who are below reporting thresholds. In real terms, not only are there a lot of unemployed that cannot find jobs, a lot of people with jobs are just one or two pay checks away from the street. Official stats are a joke.
    Last edited by Seraph; July 22nd, 2011 at 07:10 PM.

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    Provide source. And data collection method. In American statistical reporting, there are various official methods. Ones that are based on tax documents, necessarily do not include people who are below reporting thresholds. In real terms, not only are there a lot of unemployed that cannot find jobs, a lot of people with jobs are just one or two pay checks away from the street. Official stats are a joke.
    Well, I wouldn't say, of course, it's totally impossible to find incomes less than $30 an hour among the Americans, but I think it's quite rare. You're talking about terrible things, could you at least specify the kind of job those people have? Where the salaries are so incredibly small that people can't even pay for their bills...

  4. #4
    Hanna
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    On the article that Seraph linked to. I've read it more carefully now.
    It has an agenda: It's anti globalisation. Whereas IMF and all the other institutions whose advice Latvia's been following are pro-globalization.

    It happens to tie in with my political views, so I'd say it's pretty much right on the spot.
    But is it painting a too gloomy picture of Latvia? I have no idea because I don't know how normal people live or whether they really have as much debt as the article suggests.

    Nevertheless, I'd say that the way that Belarus has gone makes more sense TO ME. Instead of throwing out everything that the the USSR had built up, as useless, they choose to continue using it and make gradual reforms. As a result, their country is just a tiny bit 'old fashioned'... but everyone's got a job and they haven't sold out the country and all its assets to foreigners. Plus, the country looks very good - clean, no graffiti and renovation completed or in progress pretty much everywhere. You can live very cheaply there so the fact that the income levels are low is not massively relevant unless the person plans a holiday abroad, or buying something like an ipad.
    Quote Originally Posted by Report
    Latvia has too little industry, too little agricultural modernization, but over 9 billion lati in private debt – now at risk of being shifted onto the government’s balance sheet, just as has occurred with the U.S. bank bailouts.
    If this credit had been extended productively to build Latvia’s economy, it would have been acceptable. But it was mostly unproductive, extended to fuel land-price inflation and luxury consumption, reducing Latvia to a state of near debt serfdom.
    It was Western neoliberals who financialized these economies with the “business friendly reforms” so loudly applauded by the World Bank, Washington and Brussels.

    Far lower levels of corruption obviously are to be desired (but whom else would the West trust?), but dramatically reducing it would perhaps only improve matters up to the level of Estonia’s road into euro-debt peonage. These neighboring Baltic counties likewise have suffered dramatic unemployment, reduced growth, declining health standards and emigration, in sharp contrast to Scandinavia and Finland.
    And as matters turned out, every design was the same. The names of individuals were different, but most were linked to and financed by Washington, the World Bank and European Union. And sponsored by the West’s financial institutions, one hardly should be surprised that they came up with a design in their own financial interest.
    It was a plan that no democratic government in the West could have passed. Public enterprises were doled out to individuals trusted to sell out quickly to Western investors and local oligarchs who would move their money safely offshore into the Western havens.
    I am beginning to wonder.... were these Eastern countries let into the EU so that they could be ripped off by businesses in Western Europe...? and so that their citizens can go to Germany, the UK etc and do crappy jobs that can't be filled by local people. So in the USSR built factories, schools and military bases..... The EU and USA are screwing the Balts for money.
    If I was Baltic I'd be pretty confused and fed up with the situation. They've been taken for a ride...

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    Старший оракул Seraph's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eric C. View Post
    Well, I wouldn't say, of course, it's totally impossible to find incomes less than $30 an hour among the Americans, but I think it's quite rare. You're talking about terrible things, could you at least specify the kind of job those people have? Where the salaries are so incredibly small that people can't even pay for their bills...
    "44 million Americans on foodstamps". http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...s-incomes.html. "It’s A Cash-Flow Problem": The Ever Broker US Consumer Increasingly Relying On Credit Cards For Daily Staples | zero hedge
    .$30/hr?? Under $30/hr is normal. Those $30-40/hr jobs ain't open. If you look at government stats, you see lots of people with $30-40/hr jobs. But there are no openings. The truth is, lots of people really are in difficulty, and have difficulty paying bills. The reality is, the incomes of ordinary citizens in real terms are dropping, purchasing power keeps dropping.
    .
    Quote Originally Posted by Hanna View Post
    ...It happens to tie in with my political views, so I'd say it's pretty much right on the spot.
    But is it painting a too gloomy picture of Latvia? I have no idea because I don't know how normal people live or whether they really have as much debt as the article suggests. ... I am beginning to wonder.... were these Eastern countries let into the EU so that they could be ripped off by businesses in Western Europe...? and so that their citizens can go to Germany, the UK etc and do crappy jobs that can't be filled by local people. So in the USSR built factories, schools and military bases..... The EU and USA are screwing the Balts for money. If I was Baltic I'd be pretty confused and fed up with the situation. They've been taken for a ride...
    The IMF/World Bank have a track record. 40 years of austerity programs. They all end the same way. And now the EU is playing the same game.

  6. #6
    Hanna
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seraph View Post
    The IMF/World Bank have a track record. 40 years of austerity programs. They all end the same way. And now the EU is playing the same game.
    I think that might very well be true. Meanwhile most people in the Baltic States are so busy hating Russia, complaining about the USSR times and idolizing capitalism in all its forms and shapes... that they don't even notice that they are being (essentially) cheated and robbed. And the EU is turning a blind eye to the treatment of the Russian speakers, which would create a huge outrage if it happened to any other group, anywhere else in the EU.
    That's my take on it, and I hope for their sake that I am wrong. I would like to see this area prosperous and not indebted and sold off to foreign interests.

    From Wikipedia, about the charming city of Liepaja, which is unfortunately struggling with unemployment:

    Economy
    In the second half of 20th century under Soviet rule Liepāja became an industrial city and a large number of high technology plants were founded, including:



    [list of ~20 factories]

    After collapse of USSR's centrally planned economy, only a small number of these plants continue to operate.


    [some info about the port in Liepaja]


    After joining European Union in 2004, most Liepāja companies was faced with strict European rules and terse competition and was forced to stop production or to sell enterprises to European companies. In 2007 were closed Liepājas cukurfabrika and Liepājas sērkociņi; Līvu alus, Liepājas maiznieks and Lauma has been sold to European investors.

  7. #7
    Ann
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eric C. View Post
    Well, I wouldn't say, of course, it's totally impossible to find incomes less than $30 an hour among the Americans, but I think it's quite rare. You're talking about terrible things, could you at least specify the kind of job those people have? Where the salaries are so incredibly small that people can't even pay for their bills...
    The minimum wage is not a statistical average, it’s a legal limit set by the federal government to ensure that workers (presumably citizens and legal residents) don’t get paid less than that, and $7.50 is an accurate figure in 2011.

    Throughout my college years I worked as a cashier on weekends in a large supermarket chain. I started at $7 per hour in 1997 and after several raises and promotions, was making $10 per hour in 2001, the year I graduated. A friend of mine was making about $100 a day waiting tables in a restaurant. Back then $35,000 is considered a good starting annual salary for a college graduate with a bachelor degree in accounting. This was GROSS income, of course. About 25% of it went to federal, state and social security tax, so the take-home pay was about $14 an hour.

    Here’s a list of minimum wage in 2011 by state:

    List of U.S. minimum wages - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    And a list by occupation:

    Minimum wage in the United States - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    As you can see, things have not improved much from 10 years ago for the low-wage earners, except that many of them had to work less hours during the recession. I honestly don’t know how they can pay their bills (or not). I can do some research but I’m afraid to. Their after-tax income might be a little higher than their gross income because of all the tax credits they can claim. But still, the monthly rent (not including utility, etc) for a small apartment in Atlanta costs at least $700; gasoline is at $4 a gallon now; a loaf of bread with decent amount of nutrient costs $3…
    Пожалуйста, говорите медленнее.

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    After collapse of USSR's centrally planned economy, only a small number of these plants continue to operate.
    That's because USSR's production cannot compete with real world.
    Even cheapest imported things (like plastic bags and chewing gum ) were almost idolized in Soviet times when people got hands on them.
    When Iron curtain fell and imports from west were allowed - suddenly people realized how shitty USSR production was.
    And most of factories in Latvia got raw materials from the rest of USSR - after collapse it was not possible/too expensive.
    That's why most of USSR time manufacturing died out.

    And Hanna - would you like to move to Belarus?

    People in Latvia do not - if they emigrate - they go to west.
    Серп и молот - смерть и голод!

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    Hanna
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    Quote Originally Posted by nulle View Post
    And Hanna - would you like to move to Belarus? People in Latvia do not - if they emigrate - they go to west.
    No, I wouldn't particularly want to live there... it depends completely on the circumstances.. It's not a bad place though. If someone was to offer me a well paid job there, I might consider it, for a short period. But that's not likely to happen.

    But I think that if a person is on a very low salary, then they might be better off in Belarus than in Latvia. I am not certain though, but things are so cheap in Belarus. In Latvia, the prices are more like in the rest of the EU. Rents etc are very low in Belarus too. So if you had.... say 800 USD per month.... You'd get a much better standard of living for that in Belarus, than in Latvia.

    In Belarus I met quite a lot of people who said that they knew somebody or had a relative who was living in Sweden. I was really surprised to hear that. I have never met a Belarussian in Sweden (I have been living abroad though). It seems Sweden is one of the top places that Belarussians would like to emigrate to. One Belarussian woman who worked at the Swedish embassy was running a Swedish course (such a small language, surprising anyone wants to learn it!). She had almost 50 people in her course! Sadly (for Belarus) it's the smartest and most hard working people who leave. I suspect it might be the same in Latvia.

    My main point about Belarus is that the situation there is completely misrepresented in Western European media. Although it has some problems, it's not half as bad as you'd think after reading an average European paper.

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    I have never met a Belarussian in Sweden
    Possibly because they learn Swedish and do not ask Belarussian to be official language, like some Russians here in Latvia.
    It's amazing actually - one day someone asked me directions in Russian - how to get to the bus - I answered him in Latvian - he did not understand ANYTHING.
    How the hell you can live in a country and do not know local language that is spoken by majority?
    Серп и молот - смерть и голод!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hanna View Post
    No, I wouldn't particularly want to live there... it depends completely on the circumstances.. It's not a bad place though. If someone was to offer me a well paid job there, I might consider it, for a short period. But that's not likely to happen.

    But I think that if a person is on a very low salary, then they might be better off in Belarus than in Latvia. I am not certain though, but things are so cheap in Belarus. In Latvia, the prices are more like in the rest of the EU. Rents etc are very low in Belarus too. So if you had.... say 800 USD per month.... You'd get a much better standard of living for that in Belarus, than in Latvia.

    In Belarus I met quite a lot of people who said that they knew somebody or had a relative who was living in Sweden. I was really surprised to hear that. I have never met a Belarussian in Sweden (I have been living abroad though). It seems Sweden is one of the top places that Belarussians would like to emigrate to. One Belarussian woman who worked at the Swedish embassy was running a Swedish course (such a small language, surprising anyone wants to learn it!). She had almost 50 people in her course! Sadly (for Belarus) it's the smartest and most hard working people who leave. I suspect it might be the same in Latvia.

    My main point about Belarus is that the situation there is completely misrepresented in Western European media. Although it has some problems, it's not half as bad as you'd think after reading an average European paper.
    Do some search on what I wrote in the reply to one of Basil's posts. Over 1500 detained over the last 1.5 months for clapping their hands. Learn how those arrests were done, how some civilians were beaten during them, etc. If it's not enough for you to think something is going wrong there (that is, if you think it's ok), then I just wonder what principles you were taught in your childhood. Some people even compared those events to what took place in Germany in the 1930s...

    Then, your another mistake is you don't take into account that salaries of $800 a month are considered top level incomes there rather than "low salaries".
    nulle likes this.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nulle View Post
    That's because USSR's production cannot compete with real world.
    Even cheapest imported things (like plastic bags and chewing gum ) were almost idolized in Soviet times when people got hands on them.
    When Iron curtain fell and imports from west were allowed - suddenly people realized how shitty USSR production was.
    And most of factories in Latvia got raw materials from the rest of USSR - after collapse it was not possible/too expensive.
    That's why most of USSR time manufacturing died out.

    And Hanna - would you like to move to Belarus?

    People in Latvia do not - if they emigrate - they go to west.
    It has nothing to do with the past, the USSR. It has to do with right now.

    Every ongoing productive economy requires money to be spent on maintenance, repairs, replacements, upgrades, etc. Austerity programs always take money away from these necessary expenditures. It does not matter what the previous economic system was. Capitalist, socialist, communist, or any other, it does not matter. Austerity programs always degrade economic productive capabilities. When you combine this with ‘aid’ loans that are not in your local currency, the situation is worse. International finance sees the austerity program, and the aid loans, and they know what it means. They put pressure on the local currency relative to the loan currency. This drives the debt servicing costs up in the local currency. This extracts more money out of the economy, making the austerity worse, leading to less repair, maintenance, upgrading, etc. And so a bad economic spiral, from worse to worse happens. Also, the aid loans come with requirements for privatization. This also compounds the situation, making it worse.

    The problems in the Baltic states now are the responsibility of the leadership there. Enough time has passed. It is not from any previous system. We know this because whenever and wherever economic austerity programs combined with aid loans occur, the local economy declines, and economic dependence is developed to the creditor nation(s). This is being said from the perspective of capitalism. If you want to be a capitalist success, then you have to do the things that make capitalism successful. This is definitely not taking aid loans, and going into austerity programs. The reality is, the Baltic states are paying tribute to euro-bankers that are plundering the countries. The euro-bankers will never allow the Baltic states to develop successful economies. The processes are obvious, because they have been used over and over again. In this case it is used to favor the traditional central powers of west Europe.

    The powerful economies of the world like in the US, and now in China, do not, and did not take aid loans, and do not go into austerity programs. If you want to be a capitalist, you have to actually do what capitalists do. This is not what the Baltics are doing. They are being client/dependant states of other capitalist states that will never allow the Baltics to develop properly. It is not the fault of communism from ages past, it is the fault of Baltics leadership right now that have sold out to other euro-zone powers. Western capitalist powers are saying ‘do as I say, not as I do’. If you do as they say, you will not succeed. You have to do what they did to be successful, not what they say to do.

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