Does anyone have friends or family there who have a view on this? What do they think?
I have had a chance to read up about Belarus now, and I really think there is a lot of BS floating about in Western media. I don't think it is as bad as some media make out.
The elections there ARE fair according to EU observers. However hard they look they cannot find any proof of ballot stuffing or any type of coercion regarding the voting. The participation is about the same as Britain, about 60%
The problem is that the majority of Belarussians are voting for the "wrong" party/candidate, namely Lukashenko, a socialist who will not open up the country for all-out market capitalism that many powers in the West would support.
Solution? Claim that the elections were rigged and spread catchy one-liners such as "Last dictatorship in Europe".
They probably DO have many problems and bad practices going on there, that should be stopped. But that's another story. If Belarussians prefer socialism/social democracy and think that Lukashenko is OK, so what?
Also Lukashenko's party has refused to implement IMF recommendations of selling off public assets, reducing pensions, wages and state subsidies (which would mean plunging half of the population at least, into poverty).
They keep voting for him because they don't want the political chaos of Ukraine, or the poverty of rural Russia. That makes perfect sense, at least to me. As it is now, they have decent free healthcare and good free universities and everyone can afford to live, buy food and clothes. Most families have a car and a computer. The country is clean and orderly. Many have a car and computer.
Freedom of press is an subjective term but Belarus has privately owned media, including oppositional newspaper that critisize the government. Apparently they have banned printing of some anti-government papers in Belarus itself, so it is printed in the Baltics and imported.
The "disappeared" people apparently largely left the country and can be found in London, Moscow, Paris etc. So they "disappered" from Belarus but not from the face of the earth. If they have any genuine political prisoners (I can't find anything when I google it) then I think they should release them.
Plus the US and the Soros institutions are literally pouring money Into the opposition in Belarus, so there is probably an agenda there. They've tried several times to stage a "colour revolution" but not succeeded because not enough people are interested.
I am just NOT convinced that Belarussians in general would be better off if Lukashenko was toppled and a pro-West or pro-Russia market capitalist system was introduced.
Here is an interesting blog post, including the comments:
Neil Clark: Peter Hitchens on Belarus Belarus: Dictatorship or Democracy? A Review of Stewart Parker’s: “The Last Soviet Republic” | Robert Lindsay