Thread: Elections in Belarus

Anybody knows about tomorrow elections in Belarus?

Originally Posted by bsod

Anybody knows about tomorrow elections in Belarus?

Elections of Lukashenko

Originally Posted by Ramil

Elections of Lukashenko

The fifth time. Sadly...

Sad but true

Does anyone have friends or family there who have a view on this? What do they think?

I have had a chance to read up about Belarus now, and I really think there is a lot of BS floating about in Western media. I don't think it is as bad as some media make out.

"Last dictatorship in Europe" "Lukashenko is a dictator" "No free elections""People are disappearing..."

The elections there ARE fair according to EU observers. However hard they look they cannot find any proof of ballot stuffing or any type of coercion regarding the voting. The participation is about the same as Britain, about 60%

The problem is that the majority of Belarussians are voting for the "wrong" party/candidate, namely Lukashenko, a socialist who will not open up the country for all-out market capitalism that many powers in the West would support.

Solution? Claim that the elections were rigged and spread catchy one-liners such as "Last dictatorship in Europe".

They probably DO have many problems and bad practices going on there, that should be stopped. But that's another story. If Belarussians prefer socialism/social democracy and think that Lukashenko is OK, so what?

Also Lukashenko's party has refused to implement IMF recommendations of selling off public assets, reducing pensions, wages and state subsidies (which would mean plunging half of the population at least, into poverty).

They keep voting for him because they don't want the political chaos of Ukraine, or the poverty of rural Russia. That makes perfect sense, at least to me. As it is now, they have decent free healthcare and good free universities and everyone can afford to live, buy food and clothes. Most families have a car and a computer. The country is clean and orderly. Many have a car and computer.

Freedom of press is an subjective term but Belarus has privately owned media, including oppositional newspaper that critisize the government. Apparently they have banned printing of some anti-government papers in Belarus itself, so it is printed in the Baltics and imported.

The "disappeared" people apparently largely left the country and can be found in London, Moscow, Paris etc. So they "disappered" from Belarus but not from the face of the earth. If they have any genuine political prisoners (I can't find anything when I google it) then I think they should release them.

Plus the US and the Soros institutions are literally pouring money Into the opposition in Belarus, so there is probably an agenda there. They've tried several times to stage a "colour revolution" but not succeeded because not enough people are interested.

I am just NOT convinced that Belarussians in general would be better off if Lukashenko was toppled and a pro-West or pro-Russia market capitalist system was introduced.

Here is an interesting blog post, including the comments:
http://neilclark66.blogspot.com/2008...n-belarus.html
http://robertlindsay.wordpress.com/2...blic%E2%80%9D/

OMG Hanna, I can't believe my eyes... Have you ever been there? You know, the term of "social democracy" as it's seen in Sweden pretty much differs from how it's seen in Belarus...

Originally Posted by Eric C.

OMG Hanna, I can't believe my eyes... Have you ever been there? You know, the term of "social democracy" as it's seen in Sweden pretty much differs from how it's seen in Belarus...

Of course I realise that. And no, I haven't been there, but maybe I should add Belarus to my CIS country itinerary this spring. A friend of mine went there for work (she is a journalist, specialising in education). She said the country was in better shape than Ukraine that she also visited.

If somebody credible from Belarus comes here and says his life is a living hell because of Lukashenko's policies and gives some concrete examples, then I'll happily change my mind.

But for the time being I believe that the claims about Lukashenko being an evil dictator are about as true as the statements regarding WMDs in Iraq or the righteousness of the war in Afghanistan. And if I was American I'd worry more about what goes in in Guantanamo and Abu Ghraib, than in Belarus anyway.

As far as I can make out, over 65% of Belarussians turned out to vote (normal figure). Of those, 80% voted for Lukashenko without any threats coercion or checks.
This is being verified by international observers, most of who would probably love to find something untoward.

Eric C. +1

Twitter - a lot of posts in English, Russian and Belorussian languages.
Great protest action preparing in Minsk in 1-2 hour. But strange things occurs in our internet right now (somebody have made copies of greater opposition sites and rerouted belorussian DNS to them, also HTTPS protocol is blocked now (this means that we can't login to gmail, facebook or use any other site which uses a secure protocol).

Originally Posted by bsod

But strange things occurs in our internet right now (somebody have made copies of greater opposition sites and rerouted belorussian DNS to them, also HTTPS protocol is blocked now (this means that we can't login to gmail, facebook or use any other site which uses a secure protocol).

On elections eve all opposition sites (charter97.org, electroname.com, ucpb.org etc.) were blocked. ICQ, email and other communicative means too.

Капец, я не успеваю обновлять сообщения в твитере, это даже на чат не похоже, сообщения льются как символы в заставке матрицы:

Мешают активистам выехать. Режут шины,останавливают машины.Задерживают на вокзалах.Люди все равно едут.Нас будет много

Профессиональным взором скажу что сейчас на площади минимум 10 тыс. чел. Люди идут.

ФОТО с Октябрьской площади, постоянное обновление - http://bit.ly/eqaWXd

Charter97.org is available to me, and very conveniently, fully in English (why would Belarussians set up an opposition site in English?) The site is hosted in the USA. The other sites are hosted in Russia and they seem indeed to be down.

The Belarussian site "ale.by"is up and showing pictures of a crowd with some red-white banners on a square. No riots, no police violence. Compare with education reforms in the UK.

Maybe the Russian language opposition sites are just getting more hits than they can handle, due to the elections. It's pretty common for sites to go down when lots of people legitimately try to hit them at a same time, due to some specific event.

Anyone who believes that a somebody with a genuinely held political view is going to change their mind because a couple of websites are down, is plain stupid. There are about a million ways around any such blocks anyway, and normally there is no restriction of internet usage in Belarus.

If the sites were hosted in Belarus, then the authorities could take them down. But since they are not, there isn't anything anyone can do, apart from DDosing them a bit, or maybe blocking them at the largest ISPs. This is extremely easy to spot, since you'd get a completely different site, and wouldn't get to the site you are trying to reach at all. Here, you DO get the site but it is busy - either legitimately or by DDOSing.

If that is really being done by Belarussian intelligence, then it's certainly wrong, fairly pathetic and most of all a miracle the regime has lasted so long, since it would be imbecill to waste time on something like that. I hardly think it's anything they are involved in.



EDIT 1:

ROFL - Guess who this lady voted for?




EDIT 2: While I was on the Belarussian opposition website, I got a virus?!?!!! Huh??! First time ever, that I got one just from being on a website, with Firefox. Not sure which site it was. Luckily I had a clone of my C drive, so no big harm done.

Originally Posted by Eric C.

OMG Hanna, I can't believe my eyes... Have you ever been there? You know, the term of "social democracy" as it's seen in Sweden pretty much differs from how it's seen in Belarus...

And have YOU ever been there? I have relatives there and visit them quite often and according to my expirience Hanna described current state of affairs in Belarus quite well and objective.

CyberSecurity.ru | технологии | В Белоруссии заблокирован доступ к оппозиционным сайтам, Twitter, YouTube и Gmail

Originally Posted by delog

http://cybersecurity.ru/news/111113.html]CyberSecurity.ru | технологии | В Белоруссии заблокирован доступ к оппозиционным сайтам, Twitter, YouTube и Gmail[/url]

If this was TRUE, then the opposition would have pretty solid cause for complaints against Lukashenko's regime.

It would have very simple for anyone in Belarus to do a Trace Route (tracert) and confirm for SURE what was going on. Most advanced computer/IT people would know how to do it. Is a tracert available?

Otherwise it's just general rumour spreading. And how popular are these sites anyway? Wouldn't it make more sense to block the main Russian speaking websites? For example Mail.ru rather than Gmail.

In China, for example, there is no doubt that these things are happening; the users can trace their packets and and their requests get redirected long before they get to the blocked site. They get re-directed to a government site with an sign of an animated policeman and some text. It's clear as daylight what's going on. DDosing sounds really amateurish; likewise slamming a block on some randomly selected sites for one day only.
Belarus is not generally considered to be a country that censors internet usage.

Any pro-Lukashenko hackers/security people can only do two things: Block access to the opposition sites at the ISPs (which you can still get around with a proxy or VPN), or DDOS the sites (for that, you need your own botnet which usually only cybercriminals have.).

Neither action makes any logical sense for them to be doing on the election day in particular, but not otherwise.

The sites are normally accessible to Belarussians. Blocking it on the election day would simply be a bad reflection on them and achieve no benefit.

A couple of links from drudgereport.com say that there was violence recently:


Thousands try to storm govt building in Belarus - Yahoo! News

France24 - Opposition cries foul over 'humiliating' propaganda

Scott

Revolutions and opposition lost their meaning when people started to get paid for being oppositioners.
Anyway, whatever happens it's for people of Belorus to work out.

Originally Posted by Hanna

why would Belarussians set up an opposition site in English?

Ask Misha Tal. He knows the answer.

Originally Posted by gRomoZeka

Revolutions and opposition lost their meaning when people started to get paid for being oppositioners.

I believe, Misha Tal is a good example, isn't he?

Originally Posted by Hanna

If this was TRUE, then the opposition would have pretty solid cause for complaints against Lukashenko's regime.

Everything seemed rather ok with elections until Lukashenko started to cheat with results (made 80% out of 50%), because he is really scared of the second tour where Moscow could support a different candidate. But the opposition crowd also acted very stupid (or it was a provocation? Although it doesn't look so from the videos that I've seen) trying to capture the goverment building (breaking doors, etc.):



So goverment forces had to act strictly to prevent a putsch.

YouTube - Правдивый репортаж РЕН ТВ с выборов Лукашенко

Да, с этими "революционерами" каши не сваришь. Переговоры с силовиками надо было проводить ДО выборов. Обработать нескольких высокопоставленных ментовских чиновников, чтобы, если и не выразили открытого неповиновения, то, хотя бы, задержали бы исполнение приказов. А ещё лучше обрабатывать военных, чтобы поддержали бронёй, если что. Искать союзников в России, Европе, чтобы информационную кампанию готовили.
Не читали Владимира Ильича, про "почту, телеграф, телефон". Телецентр надо было захватывать, выходить в эфир, обращаться к регионам, милиции, войскам. Призывать их на свою сторону. Кому нужно здание правительства?! Что они там забыли?! И толпой управлять не умеют, часть надо было на площади оставлять, а часть вести на телецентр. Плана никакого у людей не было. Вышли, поорали, получили по балде дубиной и побрели домой. Будут ещё 5 лет ждать... Ведь понятно же было, что Лукашенко "победит". Если действительно у него столь слабая поддержка населения, то план действий на случай его "победы" должен был быть готов за полгода до вчерашних событий.
В общем, россияне, мотайте на ус. Нас это ждёт в 2012... в крайнем случае в 2016.

По ходу Батька действительно выйграл первый тур, но до полтинника не дотянул, так что светил второй, а там глядишь и Кремль бы Некляева или кого там ещё поддержал. Григорич слишком хорошо видать помнит померанчеву заварушку у соседей, чтобы самому идти на такой риск, особенно если не стопроцентно уверен в поддержке из Москвы.
Что же касается нас, то я сомневаюсь, что у нас толпы выйдут возмущаться против избрания Бэтмана или Робина. А вот когда Едре опять нарисуют конституционное большинство в парламенте, я бы может и сам присоединился к протестам, если будут.