Thread: The demise of the dollar?

Russian: http://www.rian.ru/economy/20091006/187685842.html

In the most profound financial change in recent Middle East history, Gulf Arabs are planning – along with China, Russia, Japan and France – to end dollar dealings for oil, moving instead to a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar.

Full text here: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/busin ... 98175.html

So, the energy fight is going on... big news.

I don't think the "demise" of the dollar does necessarily mean the demise of the capital. And there's a big difference between those two.

PS. Those secret negotiations have to work out first. Especially with the US trying to block them down.

I don't thinkg it's the 'demise'. American economy wouldn't collapse if, say, China would pay Russia for its oil in some other currency rather than dollar. I don't really see any reason why China should buy US dollars in order to buy something from Russia. The same thing happens with Arab states. They simply don't want to upkeep the US economy anymore while dealing with oil. Why should they?
I don't think that dollar monopoly in the international trade does any good even for the US itself.
Of course, the Federal reserve would resist violently, but things just have to change.

Originally Posted by Ramil

I don't thinkg it's the 'demise'. American economy wouldn't collapse if, say, China would pay Russia for its oil in some other currency rather than dollar.

I agree. Just have a look at the title of the article (and the thread). The title is the author's interpretation, isn't it?

Originally Posted by Crocodile

Originally Posted by Ramil

I don't thinkg it's the 'demise'. American economy wouldn't collapse if, say, China would pay Russia for its oil in some other currency rather than dollar.

I agree. Just have a look at the title of the article (and the thread). The title is the author's interpretation, isn't it?

The journalists want their titles shout or nobody would read their writings...

As far as I recall from macroeconomics at university, this is one of America's worst nightmares. I remember the lecturer saying that America would practically go to any length to prevent this. This "risk" has been known for decades but this is the first time it is a realistic "threat". There haven't been any other suitable alternative currencies before, and the facts about the American economy are undeniable now after the financial collapse.

I don't think this article in the Independent is the last we've heard of this.

Originally Posted by The Independent

Bankers remember, of course, what happened to the last Middle East oil producer to sell its oil in euros rather than dollars. A few months after Saddam Hussein trumpeted his decision, the Americans and British invaded Iraq.

Originally Posted by The Independent

The Chinese believe, for example, that the Americans persuaded Britain to stay out of the euro in order to prevent an earlier move away from the dollar.

The US has proved over and over that it is willing to start wars practically anywhere on the planet to protect its economic and political interests. Although its economy seems to be contracting, the military is in top condition. Fortunately for countries like Iran and North Korea it's stretched right now though. But the scare-mongery (propaganda) about their nukes has been going on for years now.

I guess this development was inevitable.
It's clear that China will be a new superpower shortly. The question is what roles EU, Russia, US will play.

Goodbye America??? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E6MksZvcB9A lol!

Originally Posted by The Independent

Bankers remember [...] The Chinese believe [...]

Dear Johanna, you go on mentioning your good education... Have you ever taken a Critical Thinking course? You really need to.

Originally Posted by Johanna

The US has proved over and over that it is willing to start wars practically anywhere on the planet to protect its economic and political interests.

Which of course could not be said about Russia which is unwilling to start wars practically anywhere on the planet. All the wars that protect Russian economic and political interests are mainly conducted on Mars!

Originally Posted by Johanna

Fortunately for countries like Iran and North Korea it's stretched right now though. But the scare-mongery (propaganda) about their nukes has been going on for years now.

And, of course, dear Johanna, you've been in both countries and you understand nuclear weaponry well enough to attest for the fact that you visited every secret military object and there's absolutely nothing to be scared-mongered about!

Originally Posted by Johanna

It's clear that China will be a new superpower shortly.

Of course, it's clear. But not really that clear. I'd say it's clear that EU will be a new superpower shortly. And it's also clear that India will be a new superpower shortly (just a minute after China). And the clearest of all is that OPEC countries will unite to become a new superpower right after India. And then, it's clear that Africa is the next superpower. And then the Antarctic penguins would evolve so much so they would acquire the super-knowledge and become the super power. Dear Johanna, do you by any chance have a clear crystal ball that you can say all those things?

Originally Posted by Johanna

It's clear that China will be a new superpower shortly.

Questionable. The Chinese economy is not as strong as it may seem. Political and demographic factors can intervene. If their government shows any weakness at the wrong time and place China can repeat the USSR dissolution scenario and disintegrate into 20 or so quarreling and overpopulated neighbors.
Let's all pray that this won't happen or things will go downhill pretty fast in the whole Asia.
Less disasterous scenario would be an enrichment of the Chinese. The workers who now works at Chinese factories for 2$ will sooner or later demand better salaries and lesser working day. Chinese production will stop being cheap and global corporation will be forced to move somewhere else (see Africa part). What will happen to China next? I cannot say.

Originally Posted by Crocodile

I'd say it's clear that EU will be a new superpower shortly.

I disagree. EU has too many inner disagreements to act as a solid superpower. There's no such thing as 'european nation'. Economically maybe, but economic strength (which is still questionable) is not everything you need.

And it's also clear that India will be a new superpower shortly (just a minute after China).

Again, this is doubtful. Same reasons.

And the clearest of all is that OPEC countries will unite to become a new superpower right after India.

Well this is the thing I can agree with. I'm almost certain that the Arabic Union (or whatever they will choose to be called) will be a power to reckon with.

And then, it's clear that Africa is the next superpower.

No. Due to environmental conditions on our planet the equatorial territories will soon become unhabitable. You'll need trillions of dollars (in their present value) to invest in the infrastructure before anything even remotely resembling a superpower can emerge there.

And then the Antarctic penguins would evolve so much so they would acquire the super-knowledge and become the super power.

Every joke is only partly a joke. If polar caps melt Antarctic regions can attract settlers from other overpopulated regions.

Crocodile I got a bit put off by your comment earlier, it was so personal!

You are right that I haven't been to Iran, but I have actually been to North Korea, with my dad as a teenager. It was such an unsual experience that I've taken an interest ever since. I have also been to Saudi Arabia, twice, the other country that was mentioned. Fail to see why that is terribly important though -- I was not claiming to be an expert on Iran, just supporting their right to pick whatever type of government they see fit.

As for critical thinking: Well, do you think I would be saying the things I was saying if I wasn't capable of critical thinking? What I've been saying here is the exact opposite to current media/popular opinion about these countries in Europe. E.g. Russia is evil, watch out... Iran is a threat to everybody in Europe... We must fight "terrorists" in Iraq and Afghanistan, etc, etc.

But like I said earlier, I am not on this forum to write long and serious political rants and I can't be fussed to back up every single thing I say with a source and the rest of it. If you want to try to ridicule my comments I guess that's your prerogative. Nobody changes their views based on what they read on a forum, so don't take it so seriously!

Crocodile I got a bit put off by your comment earlier, it was so personal!
=> Please accept my apologies. Russians could be so direct ...

Fail to see why that is terribly important though -- I was not claiming to be an expert on Iran, just supporting their right to pick whatever type of government they see fit.
=> I don't have anything against the current Iranian government. My comment was referring to your saying: "But the scare-mongery (propaganda) about their nukes has been going on for years now." So, what I essentially said was that "scare-mongery" might be just propaganda or it might be a very true thing. Unfortunately, since you're not an expert, you can't tell for sure. And thust it's a pure speculation on your part to say Iranian nuclear threat is just propaganda.

Well, do you think I would be saying the things I was saying if I wasn't capable of critical thinking? What I've been saying here is the exact opposite to current media/popular opinion about these countries in Europe.
=> That does not necessarily qualify you as a critical thinker. Let me give you an example. Say, you live in the USSR in 1937. You see what's going on around you, you compare that with what's the soviet propaganda is telling, and you come to the conclusion that the soviet propaganda is wrong. As a result, you pick the other side propaganda: start practising shouting "Heil Hitler!" at home, and set on building your personal concentration camp in your backyard. That action, I think, would not indicate you're a critical thinker, would it?

I am not on this forum to write long and serious political rants and I can't be fussed to back up every single thing I say with a source and the rest of it.
=> You see, propaganda is transitive. If you repeating someone else's propaganda, you become a source of the propaganda too. And if you dislike propaganda being dumped on you (as you claim to be a critical thinker, don't you?) you should become sensitive in this regard and not dump the propaganda on other people. Just because of the pure courtesy on your part. So, if you see something like: "The Chinese believe, for example, that the Americans persuaded Britain to stay out of the euro in order to prevent an earlier move away from the dollar," you should ask yourself: Who are those "Chinese?" Are "the Chinese" the Chinese executive government, the Chinese Communist Party political government, a head newspaper, the majority of all Chinese people, or perhaps just an editorial from an outsider journalisit who was trying hard to blow his own horn? Are there answers to that in the original paper? Not really. And if not, that is a statement to just be believed (=propaganda) and so please-please-please don't dump it on the others. Just because it's not worth your own faith.

Originally Posted by Ramil

Russian: http://www.rian.ru/economy/20091006/187685842.html

In the most profound financial change in recent Middle East history, Gulf Arabs are planning – along with China, Russia, Japan and France – to end dollar dealings for oil, moving instead to a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar.

Full text here: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/busin ... 98175.html

That was shocking, but also apparently untrue. Reporters naturally swarmed the IMF meeting in Istanbul to get more information, and Reuters ran this quick follow-up: "...top officials of Saudia Arabia and Russia, speaking on the sidelines of International Monetary Fund meetings in Istanbul, denied there were such talks. Asked by reporters about the newspaper story, Saudi Arabia's central bank chief Muhammad al-Jasser said: 'Absolutely incorrect.' He repeated the same response when asked whether Saudi Arabia was in such talks. Russia's deputy finance minister Dmitry Pankin said: 'We did not discuss this at all.' Algerian Finance Minister Karim Djoudi told Reuters: 'Oil producing countries need to stabilize revenues but...I don't see a need for oil trade to be denominated differently.'"
PS: the dollar has lost 96% of its purchasing power since 1970 when measured by the gold standard. Even by official CPI, it's lost 82%. The dollar has been "demising" for a long time.

I hear that it's true, too. They want to dump the dollar!

But I don't think that the islamic States will get their act together to form a super state any time soon. Arabs have been fighting each other for over 3,000 years so I doubt that will change, unless their prophesied "Mahdi" comes and unites them into another infidel killing machine!