Thread: Is default of Ukraine inevitable?

I don't see that the default is inevitable, because a default state is a state when a debtor cannot pay his debts to the lender. But what if the lender doesn't demand the payment? Then the default state can never occur. The west countries might not want to demand the debts because they can afford to lose some little money and get an important geopolitical ally, and Russia might wait with the debts in order to avoid a new confrontation with the west countries.

Originally Posted by SergeMak

The figure is ridiculous. EU couldn't save the economy of such a small country as Greece with two tranches of 100 billion. What can 17 to 32 billion do for such a huge country as Ukraine?

I agree with you. I am not sure where they get their numbers. But, the latest, I believe is that 17 billion was already in the works and the rest ($15B) is needed.

IMF: Ukraine urgently needs another $ 15 billion aid - News of the economics. Reviews of the economic situation in Ukraine and the world - mw.ua

Later, it will be discovered.... oh gosh.... it is not enough. :-/

Originally Posted by diogen_

Economy is important but some projects can be delayed for a while because of Novorossia (in case it is regarded as of higher priority). Putin still can easily afford to spend 10-20 billion USD on Novorossia without too much compunction this year if he wishes.

It depends on many things. Oil prices is the major factor, as you probably now. As far as sanctions concern, any country can survive without foreign borrowing altogether and Russia is not an exception. Progress may be not so fast but still we can live through. Anyways, even Illarionov believes we may have industrial growth soon.))

They will have to abandon Donbas in order to reduce military expenditures. Such a decision is the inevitable political suicide for the government, in so far as the majority of population is pretty bellicose . They are trapped.

Do you have a bridge for sale?

So, Russia, which is in deep recession, an unstable and dropping ruble and an unknown future economic state, has billions to throw around to Novorossiya (which has no economic system that can sustain itself nor any indications that it will soon?)? So, how much is your cheap bridge?

According to you, the only one in deep economic trouble is the 'other part' of Ukraine? Um, okay....

Originally Posted by SergeMak

I don't see that the default is inevitable, because a default state is a state when a debtor cannot pay his debts to the lender. But what if the lender doesn't demand the payment? Then the default state can never occur. The west countries might not want to demand the debts because they can afford to lose some little money and get an important geopolitical ally, and Russia might wait with the debts in order to avoid a new confrontation with the west countries.

I agree with the Russia 'waiting' part. They can and will wait but the bankers want their money and the IMF want to give out the loan. It is no skin off their back. Everyone wins but the people with these bogus loans and a threat of 'default' UNLESS .... is probably enough to get it done. If not today, then 'tomorrow.' Imho, of course. That's my prediction.