Thread: Is default of Ukraine inevitable?

Originally Posted by diogen_

Geopolitics is much more important for Putin than economy. So, hypothetic new-fledged Novorossia would get tons of help from Russia no matter what. It’s as sure as Strelkov’s gun.))

Of course, just the way his Soviet predecessors did in the Eastern Europe area. The problem was, the money went to their lobbyists rather than actual people there. This time it's a bit more complicated, but as soon as every eastern Ukrainian realizes the language they speak is only secondary (at best) when it comes to their national identity, another geopolitical trick will result in another big piece of losses.

Originally Posted by diogen_

ATM, I expect from the “junta” to deflect attention of the population from looming default with a renewal of so-called anti-terrorist operation (I mean the situation when they are sure they wouldn’t get enough refunding from IMF or whoever). Otherwise, they are doomed to stepping down and fleeing to where Saakashvily currently resides. They are literally between the devil and the deep blue sea.

Some civil unrest ensues...

"Deflecting the attention of the population" tricks are going to be extremely useful for a certain else "wise" government, whose geopolitical games have caused the country's entire economy to be running down at the speed of light. I'm really curious what they come up with.

Originally Posted by Eric C.

This time it's a bit more complicated, but as soon as every eastern Ukrainian realizes the language they speak is only secondary (at best) when it comes to their national identity, another geopolitical trick will result in another big piece of losses.

I sense that there is an assumption here that Ukrainian national identity is somehow under threat if Ukraine would lean to Russia.
Should I remind you that the very Ukrainian identity is currently under much bigger threat. First of all the Euromaidan had a goal to actually abandon Ukraine as independent country and move to Europe, hence the name. Second: radical ultra nationalism that is currently present in Ukraine might turn a word "Ukrainian" to "Nazi" or something similar, this was, for example used by the Western people when they called and some still do, Soviet(and now Russian) people as Reds, Commies etc., so even in Russia there is, currently, a lot of negativism toward anything Soviet, so 70 year of national identity is lost and patriotism was not popular for a long time.

Originally Posted by hddscan

I sense that there is an assumption here that Ukrainian national identity is somehow under threat if Ukraine would lean to Russia.
Should I remind you that the very Ukrainian identity is currently under much bigger threat. First of all the Euromaidan had a goal to actually abandon Ukraine as independent country and move to Europe, hence the name. Second: radical ultra nationalism that is currently present in Ukraine might turn a word "Ukrainian" to "Nazi" or something similar, this was, for example used by the Western people when they called and some still do, Soviet(and now Russian) people as Reds, Commies etc., so even in Russia there is, currently, a lot of negativism toward anything Soviet, so 70 year of national identity is lost and patriotism was not popular for a long time.

It could be that way, if everyone in the world considered their national pride "radical ultra nationalism", but we both know it's not the case, and also who does think so, and who doesn't.

Originally Posted by Eric C.

It could be that way, if everyone in the world considered their national pride "radical ultra nationalism", but we both know it's not the case, and also who does think so, and who doesn't.

Actually that is not true, not everyone need to think like that
And example with "Commies" confirms that

Originally Posted by Eric C.

Of course, just the way his Soviet predecessors did in the Eastern Europe area. The problem was, the money went to their lobbyists rather than actual people there.

Do you believe western money did go to “actual people” and has not been wasted on senseless military buildup and bloody "anti-terrorist operation" since the coup? Also, in what way standard state “usury” is better than “geopolitical lobbyism” for these "actual people"?

This time it's a bit more complicated, but as soon as every eastern Ukrainian realizes the language they speak is only secondary (at best) when it comes to their national identity, another geopolitical trick will result in another big piece of losses.

Sorry. Your language is really too vague to comprehend. What is “primary” to their identity, what “ geopolitical trick” do you mean, what “losses” they will have to endure, and how it all may occur. Could you please elaborate your possible scenario in more detail. I don’t believe I follow your ideas as you originally produced them without adulterations of my personal “confabulations”.

"Deflecting the attention of the population" tricks are going to be extremely useful for a certain else "wise" government, whose geopolitical games have caused the country's entire economy to be running down at the speed of light. I'm really curious what they come up with.

Once again, please share your thoughts on what "they” may come up with “us”. One or two ideas on what is going to happen and when it all may come around. I'm just curious what to expect.

Originally Posted by diogen_

Do you believe western money did go to “actual people” and has not been wasted on senseless military buildup and bloody "anti-terrorist operation" since the coup? Also, in what way standard state “usury” is better than “geopolitical lobbyism” for these "actual people"?

First, I don't believe the fairy tales saying the anti-Yanukovich uprising was arranged from the outside at all. Then, the country did receive certain help from the U.S. & EU, that's true, and some of that help did go for military purposes, but hey, it's been real insignificant so far (around a couple of billions in total) - Greece alone easily ate up 2 tranches of 100 billion Euros of European money, remember? =)) And moreover, the country now really has to recover their military infrastracture that had been deliberately taken down by Yanukovich's government. So it's not the same as sponsoring a group of terrorists in the eastern area.

Originally Posted by diogen_

Sorry. Your language is really too vague to comprehend. What is “primary” to their identity, what “ geopolitical trick” do you mean, what “losses” they will have to endure, and how it all may occur. Could you please elaborate your possible scenario in more detail. I don’t believe I follow your ideas as you originally produced them without adulterations of my personal “confabulations”.

That's simple. They're first of all Ukrainians, that's their national identity, and the fact they can speak Russian doesn't make them Russians. Once they all have realized that, there will be no need in the counter-terrorist operation, all the lands will be cleaned up by the locals. And who's going to endure losses will be whoever is investing in the separatism in the area now.

Originally Posted by diogen_

Once again, please share your thoughts on what "they” may come up with “us”. One or two ideas on what is going to happen and when it all may come around. I'm just curious what to expect.

I have no idea myself what they may come up with so far. But they'll have to, that's for sure. In case you don't understand who "they" are - just look around. Go to a nearby bank/exchange office. Make it to a store like H&M, Levi's, Apple Store, IKEA. Look at the price tags. See anything unusual? Well, "they" may have to start coming up with something as the pricing trends reach food&convenience stores. But no idea when that's gonna happen.

Originally Posted by Eric C.

First, I don't believe the fairy tales saying the anti-Yanukovich uprising was arranged from the outside at all. Then, the country did receive certain help from the U.S. & EU, that's true, and some of that help did go for military purposes, but hey, it's been real insignificant so far (around a couple of billions in total) - Greece alone easily ate up 2 tranches of 100 billion Euros of European money, remember? =)) And moreover, the country now really has to recover their military infrastracture that had been deliberately taken down by Yanukovich's government. So it's not the same as sponsoring a group of terrorists in the eastern area.

"military infrastracture that had been deliberately taken down by Yanukovich's government" - Свечку держал?
Could there be a protest for the calling those people as "terrorists"?

That's simple. They're first of all Ukrainians, that's their national identity, and the fact they can speak Russian doesn't make them Russians. Once they all have realized that, there will be no need in the counter-terrorist operation, all the lands will be cleaned up by the locals. And who's going to endure losses will be whoever is investing in the separatism in the area now.

How should people realize their identities, by shelling bombs or by refeferendums?

I have no idea myself what they may come up with so far. But they'll have to, that's for sure. In case you don't understand who "they" are - just look around. Go to a nearby bank/exchange office. Make it to a store like H&M, Levi's, Apple Store, IKEA. Look at the price tags. See anything unusual? Well, "they" may have to start coming up with something as the pricing trends reach food&convenience stores. But no idea when that's gonna happen.

Can't that "coming up" rekindle Russian economics?

Originally Posted by Eric C.

So it's not the same as sponsoring a group of terrorists in the eastern area.

Based on what you said, is your position on the military presence in the Eastern Ukraine that Russian military is not involved in the conflict? To the best of my knowledge, "a group of terrorists" is not the way the official Ukrainian mass-media refers to. Indeed, if those are just "a group of terrorists", you probably don't need that much of the heavy weaponry that the Ukrainian army is so keen of acquiring and utilizing.

So, I'm also inclined to think that very few of the money sent to Ukraine will meet the local people - mostly, the money would be spent on extending and re-enforcing the military, some of it would go to the oligarchs in the form of the government contracts, and the rest will end up in the pockets of the local corrupted officials.

Originally Posted by Crocodile

Based on what you said, is your position on the military presence in the Eastern Ukraine that Russian military is not involved in the conflict? To the best of my knowledge, "a group of terrorists" is not the way the official Ukrainian mass-media refers to. Indeed, if those are just "a group of terrorists", you probably don't need that much of the heavy weaponry that the Ukrainian army is so keen of acquiring and utilizing.

So, I'm also inclined to think that very few of the money sent to Ukraine will meet the local people - mostly, the money would be spent on extending and re-enforcing the military, some of it would go to the oligarchs in the form of the government contracts, and the rest will end up in the pockets of the local corrupted officials.

So, more or less, what would happen with Russia's government, too?

Russia doesn't actually share the public purse with ordinary citizens. But, many Russian nationals here don't criticize Putin for it. Instead, there's mostly worship.

I don't think ordinary citizens will receive the funds or help either. A Ukrainian government official in the Defence Ministry already claimed a lot of money being stolen. But, this doesn't mean that they're the only corrupt country. Russia's economy is not much better. Without oil, they'd be talking about default, also. I think the loans are not a saving grace. One, they are then enslaved to bankers and two, there is a historical reality that the money never trickles down to the people. They need to start over and they need new 'personnel' in charge, imho. Too many of the old guard are sitting in comfy positions.

It remains to be seen, whether Ukrainians tolerate it. Russians seem to do so. :-/