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About LinkBacksIt's not about "scary" partOriginally Posted by Crocodile
I'm merely hoping that if default happens it would force current Ukrainian government to stop the war and start restoring economy rather then keep spending money they can't afford to spend
It's not about "scary" part
I'm merely hoping that if default happens it would force current Ukrainian government to stop the war and start restoring economy rather then keep spending money they can't afford to spend
I appreciate your intention, but something tells me that even if the active phase of the war stops, the attempts to regain full control over the area will not stop in the long run. So, the possible default will not cause the peace, only a temporary ceasefire and a better preparation for the subsequent military clashes. Will that create a stable enough situation for the Novorossian businesses to flourish and deliver some economic prosperity for the region? I highly doubt that. I'd rather say this region would become a resources-sucking addendum for Russia which everybody would be tired of in three to five years. It does not look to me like EU and US are seeking middle ground with Russia, so the conflict is inspired from the outside of Ukraine, there doesn't seem to be any real, material, conflict between the regions, only the emotions, which tend to cool down as time goes by. IMHO, all Russia was and still is trying to do is restoring the balance of power in the region and that does not seem to be what the EU and the US want at this time. The conflict could be ended in a twist of fingers by simply putting the promise that NATO would not expand any further into some solid piece of paper (how hard could that be?) and that is not what the alliance is ready to do.. so, guess what..
I currently think that Novorossia is a dead-born child.
I think it will remain in Ukrainian borders but might get wide local political power i.e. so called "decentralization"
And I think this might be somewhat acceptable to everybody
Only until default. And it can rise from the dead like phoenix thereafter. It may sound attractive for some Russian speaking Ukrainians from southern regions like Odessa to set up a new state from scratch without debts but with cheap gas and other perks.
hmm, interesting idea. Didn't think of that.
What perks? How would 'Novorossia' "rise up" and especially without economic/financial help from Moscow which is going to be less and less, probably?
Both territories in Ukraine are in trouble. I don't think the EU nor the USA want Ukraine to default. They don't want a total re-structuring of the economy or the system unless it's patterned off of the EU. The IMF has even given Russia loans in the past. The IMF and EU have thrown bad money at economies and I don't see Ukraine being much different. How that comes to be, though, I would not speculate. But, I would guess that they (USA et al.) would not want Ukraine to default or go 'officially' bankrupt without getting some sort of loan first. Some of the citizens can be volatile so if the new administration defaults and they have even 'less' services available...
This is just speculation, though. What scenario do you foresee with a default?
Geopolitics is much more important for Putin than economy. So, hypothetic new-fledged Novorossia would get tons of help from Russia no matter what. It’s as sure as Strelkov’s gun.))
Everything vital for their survival that Novorossia won’t be able to afford because any import would be way too problematic, so to speak. Fuel for nuclear power plants, for example.What perks?
The current “price tag” is about 32 billion USD.Both territories in Ukraine are in trouble. I don't think the EU nor the USA want Ukraine to default. They don't want a total re-structuring of the economy or the system unless it's patterned off of the EU. The IMF has even given Russia loans in the past. The IMF and EU have thrown bad money at economies and I don't see Ukraine being much different. How that comes to be, though, I would not speculate. But, I would guess that they (USA et al.) would not want Ukraine to default or go 'officially' bankrupt without getting some sort of loan first. Some of the citizens can be volatile so if the new administration defaults and they have even 'less' services available...
Украине грозит дефолт в этом году - Financial Times - Korrespondent.net
ATM, I expect from the “junta” to deflect attention of the population from looming default with a renewal of so-called anti-terrorist operation (I mean the situation when they are sure they wouldn’t get enough refunding from IMF or whoever). Otherwise, they are doomed to stepping down and fleeing to where Saakashvily currently resides. They are literally between the devil and the deep blue sea.This is just speculation, though. What scenario do you foresee with a default?
Some civil unrest ensues...
Of course, just the way his Soviet predecessors did in the Eastern Europe area. The problem was, the money went to their lobbyists rather than actual people there. This time it's a bit more complicated, but as soon as every eastern Ukrainian realizes the language they speak is only secondary (at best) when it comes to their national identity, another geopolitical trick will result in another big piece of losses.
"Deflecting the attention of the population" tricks are going to be extremely useful for a certain else "wise" government, whose geopolitical games have caused the country's entire economy to be running down at the speed of light. I'm really curious what they come up with.
Except, that you contradict yourself or is this a paradox? Economy is not important? So, with Russia's economy in the toilet, how will they prop up Novorossia? Is there some reason why Russia's economy will improve any time soon?
At some point, they will have to abandon financing Novorossia.
They need 17 or 32 or....the figure is high. I think the increased funding of the military is incredibly insane. Whey they cannot even afford (normally) to fund essential services, they need every last cent to rebuild and strengthen the country, economically. But, I am against that regime (probably, for different reasons than many Russians here) and nothing they do surprises me. I expect Ukrainians to object to their policies eventually but I probably perceive things differently. But, I don't think Ukraine's and Russia's problems are drastically different. Russia has oil but with the prices dropping and now the sanctions, Russia, will have their own economic problems.The current “price tag” is about 32 billion USD.
Украине грозит дефолт в этом году - Financial Times - Korrespondent.net
ATM, I expect from the “junta” to deflect attention of the population from looming default with a renewal of so-called anti-terrorist operation (I mean the situation when they are sure they wouldn’t get enough refunding from IMF or whoever). Otherwise, they are doomed to stepping down and fleeing to where Saakashvily currently resides. They are literally between the devil and the deep blue sea.
Some civil unrest ensues...
The IMF loan, will eventually arrive, although under what conditions and when, who knows. I'd be surprised if that never comes to fruition. They just argue and negotiate what seems like forever until the Government concedes and follow the demanded conditions. The media then spins it and makes it sound like it is just in the nick of time before default/official bankruptcy.
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