Thread: США и Иран?

Originally Posted by почемучка

I believe in non-proliferation.

Well, I don't, well, let's say I'm not that optimistic. Back in 1940s it took combined minds of the greatest physicists from all around the world to produce nuclear energy but now every tech speciality student understands the basics and many of them are capable of building a nuclear device provided they have fission material. It's like sand running between your fingers - the more you tighten the grip the more gets loose. You can't control them all.

It's a long-term goal that isn't going to happen any time soon, but adding countries to the nuclear ranks doesn't help. Especially a government as openly and directly belligerent as the Khamenei/Ahmadinejad regime. It's also worth considering that Iran's rise is further inflaming the deep Shi'a/Sunni split and could lead to an arms race with Saudi Arabia and/or Egypt. Iran and Saudi Arabia already seem to be fighting a proxy war in Yemen...

It may be as you say but I would welcome any factor that weakens the US's influence on this world.

Originally Posted by Ramil

Well, I don't, well, let's say I'm not that optimistic. Back in 1940s it took combined minds of the greatest physicists from all around the world to produce nuclear energy but now every tech speciality student understands the basics and many of them are capable of building a nuclear device provided they have fission material. It's like sand running between your fingers - the more you tighten the grip the more gets loose. You can't control them all.

I'm not overwhelmingly optimistic either, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't try.

[quote:1hnfvycv]It may be as you say but I would welcome any factor that weakens the US's influence on this world.

[/quote:1hnfvycv]

Be careful what you wish for. As an American, I am well-versed in the Law of Unintended Consequences. It's a lesson that our society hasn't really absorbed yet, unfortunately.

In the long-term it will be very interesting to see what happens with Iran. The demographics don't seem to favor the regime, but it's hard to truly gauge public opinion in all regions of the country. The regime has lost its aura and legitimacy with many......but it's still strong enough.

Originally Posted by почемучка

Originally Posted by Ramil

Well, I don't, well, let's say I'm not that optimistic. Back in 1940s it took combined minds of the greatest physicists from all around the world to produce nuclear energy but now every tech speciality student understands the basics and many of them are capable of building a nuclear device provided they have fission material. It's like sand running between your fingers - the more you tighten the grip the more gets loose. You can't control them all.

I'm not overwhelmingly optimistic either, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't try.

I think we're far beyond the point of no return here. Some new system of balanse should take over. Man has been perfecting the methods of killing for eons and I doubt this can be stopped.

Originally Posted by почемучка

Originally Posted by Ramil

It may be as you say but I would welcome any factor that weakens the US's influence on this world.

Be careful what you wish for. As an American, I am well-versed in the Law of Unintended Consequences. It's a lesson that our society hasn't really absorbed yet, unfortunately.

I think I should clarify my point. I believe in parity and balanse. America has become far too powerful for its own good. It is in the interests of USA to lessen its ambitions before this complex world that I call Pax Americana will 'collapse' on itself.

Originally Posted by почемучка

I don't think that Iran would actually use nuclear weapons against Israel [...]

Actually, I do. And I don't believe that much in the nuclear parity. Let's be more specific: I believe in the nuclear parity between the two 'super-powers' each of which has the capability of total mutual destruction, but not in the nuclear parity between Iran and Israel. My concern is that Iran will use a simpler 'dirty' bomb, thus not literally destructing Israel, but make it practically uninhabitable. That can't be said about Iran which has plenty of real estate. Also, Israel might be hard-pressed by the other countries so as not to worsen the 'devastating ecological situation in the Middle East' which might effectively prevent Israel from the adequate response. I think there are plenty of scenarios which could make Iran actually use its bomb. And I could easily imagine the pacifying rhetoric for Iran to be left unpunished. For example, something in the wave of: "Oh, so the US can use its nuclear weapon twice and Iran can't even use it once?!! What a hypocrisy!!! Let's not make the situation worse and just forget that had ever happened." And some countries like Uganda might propose to take a significant portion of Israeli refugees.

All that is hypothetical, of course, however if I could see that feasible, I believe some Iranian politicians might too. And it might only take one 'cornering' crisis for Iran to start that scenario. The subsequent rhetoric would claim something like 'Iran simply had no other choice'.

Originally Posted by почемучка

But Netanyahu's right-leaning government in Israel might not take that leap of faith.

Here's the thing. Israel and Iran do not have a common border. You can't have a warfare over a couple of the other countries (namely Iraq and Saudi Arabia). Neither of the Iran-neighbouring countries would agree to temporarily accept Israeli military forces in their territory. Nor does Israel have the aircraft carriers to deliver the jets to Iran over the ocean. The precision of the ballistic missiles leaves a lot to be desired to hit the Iranian nuclear reactor. Try to outline the scenario of Israel assaulting Iran with any chance of success.

Originally Posted by Crocodile

Actually, I do. And I don't believe that much in the nuclear parity. Let's be more specific: I believe in the nuclear parity between the two 'super-powers' each of which has the capability of total mutual destruction, but not in the nuclear parity between Iran and Israel. My concern is that Iran will use a simpler 'dirty' bomb, thus not literally destructing Israel, but make it practically uninhabitable. That can't be said about Iran which has plenty of real estate. Also, Israel might be hard-pressed by the other countries so as not to worsen the 'devastating ecological situation in the Middle East' which might effectively prevent Israel from the adequate response. I think there are plenty of scenarios which could make Iran actually use its bomb. And I could easily imagine the pacifying rhetoric for Iran to be left unpunished. For example, something in the wave of: "Oh, so the US can use its nuclear weapon twice and Iran can't even use it once?!! What a hypocrisy!!! Let's not make the situation worse and just forget that had ever happened." And some countries like Uganda might propose to take a significant portion of Israeli refugees.

All that is hypothetical, of course, however if I could see that feasible, I believe some Iranian politicians might too. And it might only take one 'cornering' crisis for Iran to start that scenario. The subsequent rhetoric would claim something like 'Iran simply had no other choice'.

It all comes down to whether you think Iran is a rational actor. If Iran is a rational actor, they won't use the bomb. If they do, you can be sure that Israel (and probably the US) wouldn't give even the briefest thought to the "ecological situation" in the Middle East.

My contention is that Iran is not run by religious fanatics, but by men who have major economic interests in the Islamic Republic. Signing up for national suicide is bad for business. Let's be clear -- if Iran uses a nuclear bomb, they are going to get obliterated. Now, we can debate the morality or the wisdom of that and we can discuss how other countries might react. It would be a terrible, terrible thing for Iran, Israel, and the whole world....but there would be such a response.

Originally Posted by почемучка

But Netanyahu's right-leaning government in Israel might not take that leap of faith.

Here's the thing. Israel and Iran do not have a common border. You can't have a warfare over a couple of the other countries (namely Iraq and Saudi Arabia). Neither of the Iran-neighbouring countries would agree to temporarily accept Israeli military forces in their territory. Nor does Israel have the aircraft carriers to deliver the jets to Iran over the ocean. The precision of the ballistic missiles leaves a lot to be desired to hit the Iranian nuclear reactor. Try to outline the scenario of Israel assaulting Iran with any chance of success.[/quote]

Yep, that's the problem. It may be that Iran's nuclear program is unassailable. It seems that it's spread out and partially if not completely buried. I'm only privy to the information that's in the public domain and right now that's not much. Israel has shown that they'll nip these things in the bud if they can (Iraq, Syria). They might not have the capacity or ability to do so with Iran. If they do, they probably will.

Originally Posted by почемучка

It all comes down to whether you think Iran is a rational actor. If Iran is a rational actor, they won't use the bomb. If they do, you can be sure that Israel (and probably the US) wouldn't give even the briefest thought to the "ecological situation" in the Middle East.

My contention is that Iran is not run by religious fanatics, but by men who have major economic interests in the Islamic Republic. Signing up for national suicide is bad for business. Let's be clear -- if Iran uses a nuclear bomb, they are going to get obliterated. Now, we can debate the morality or the wisdom of that and we can discuss how other countries might react. It would be a terrible, terrible thing for Iran, Israel, and the whole world....but there would be such a response.

Perhaps it would in a [bit less than a] perfect world. But, don't forget the politicians in the other countries are also pragmatic. They would be dealing with the situation at hand. What would they gain from the destruction of Iran? Nothing. But lose a lot of oil (and other stuff). And with the State of Israel gone there might be some dividends a lot of politicians could play with. I think the worst thing could happen to the Iranian government that uses a nuke against Israel is they would lose their power.

So, the bottom line is: I think Iran should not be allowed to have the WMD. Period.