That's a matter of fact, a statement of an observation.
This is much like saying "as unlikely as it is, but it's a fact that if..."2) If the North Sea happened to freeze in winter, you could walk from London to Oslo.
This sounds more like "there's a distinct possibility it may happen, so if..."3) If the North Sea should freeze in winter, you could walk from London to Oslo.
I'd say this is like the one before but with greater uncertainty whether it may really happen.4) If the North Sea should happen to freeze in winter, you could walk from London to Oslo.