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Маркус, позвольте познакомить вас с Вилльяамом Оккамом...Originally Posted by Marcus
If you think it's вероятно that since 1983, the US and S. Korean governments have paid thousands of actors to pretend that they're the grieving friends and family of 269 imaginary people from KAL 007, then, evidently, I completely misunderstand the meaning of вероятно...
That's why I said to Hanna that there are different degrees of conspiracy theory. For a government to make 269 real people completely disappear is merely маловероятно. For a government to make 269 non-existent people "real" (by pretending they were on an empty airplane, and then hiring hundreds or thousands of other people to pretend that they are mourning the deaths of these imaginary persons, and to maintain this fiction for decades) is not merely improbable; it's nearly невозможно.
Then again, there are some 911 Troofers who continue to believe that no one died aboard American Airlines Flight 77, because there was no AA Flight 77 at all, and the Pentagon was actually hit by a missile, not by an airliner with almost 70 persons on board; and that people who claim to have known the passengers and crew of Flight 77 are delusional, or paid liars; that the cell-phone calls made by terrified passengers right before they died never happened, etc.
So by comparison, Marcus seems almost reasonable here.
P.S. As to whether this was an American провокация -- I think it's fair to say that the U.S. government did their best to needlessly demonize the Soviet government AFTER the shootdown happened. For example, Reagan's characterization of the incident as "barbarism" was unnecessarily provocative (and Reagan's words seem especially rash when you consider that the shootdown of Iran Air 655 by the USS Vincennes happened less than five years later). Also, I completely agree that the US was already engaging in "provocation" BEFORE the destruction of KAL 007, with regular USAF fly-overs of Soviet space earlier in 1983. So in both those senses, I agree it's a fact that there was провокация from the US side.
However, I reject the idea that the US government in some way either planned or hoped for the shootdown of KAL 007. In addition to the points I made above about the logistical difficulties in faking the deaths of so many people, there's also the point that both the US and Japanese governments compromised their own intelligence capabilities by voluntarily releasing their recordings of intercepted Soviet radio communications after the incident (as a result of which, the USSR quite predictably upgraded their codes). Why would the US and Japan have done something to make things more difficult for the CIA, if KAL 007 was part of some complicated CIA plan?
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