IRAN --- Invasion on the horizon? Nukes? Position of Russia, USA and China

Most of us have probably noticed that the media war against Iran is being trapped up.
Most people believe that this is part of a ramping up of some kind of invasion of Iran, similar to Iraq and Afghanistan.

Israel also plays a role in all this.

My view:

• Iran is not a threat to Europe or the USA. It is not a serious threat against Israel. The hostile comments are rhetoric.
• Iran does not posess nuclear weapons and if they are striving towards that (which I am not convinced that they are) then this is caused by the fact that Israel posesses nukes (which it ought not to) and America, which keeps hinting at an upcoming invasion, also does.
• Iran should be left alone. Let them have their Islamic state and let it prosper if that is possible, or let the Iranians throw it out if they get fed up with it.

What do you think? Is a war coming? Are Iranian nukes a threat that you worry about?

I don't think they will start a war soon. They have threatened to do that for many years. The preparation is too small.

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Are Iranian wars a threat that you worry about?

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I didn't understand the last sentence. Do you mean the future war against Iran or what?

I certainly hope there is no war and I know many Americans feel the same way. There have already been many protests in our country. It is a frightening possibility, however, because of Israel's situation in the Middle East as well as it's strong ties with the US government. I believe President Obama will try to avoid a war - he has been dead set on ending the war in Iraq (Mission Accomplished!) and is close to ending the war in Afghanistan. I still cannot believe we stayed there even longer than the Soviets did! My mind boggles at this, really. You would think we would have learned... but then I guess 9/11 changed everything.

There is still a great deal of animosity in the US - in some ways deservedly - against Arab countries which harbor terrorists. But a "war on terror" cannot be fought in "Cold War" terms. This has been a bitter lesson, and I hope that the US has learned it - but it seems we enjoy repeating history a bit too much at least where war is concerned.

I think Obama's more recent tactic of quick, precise strikes is an improvement over sending in thousands of young men and women to be blown to pieces in the desert. But there are legal quandaries with these "James Bond" tactics and the US can easily be seen as overstepping its bounds.

There is no simple solution to the problems in the Middle East. On that I think everyone agrees :unknown:

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Originally Posted by Marcus

I don't think they will start a war soon. They have threatened to do that for many years. The preparation is too small.
I didn't understand the last sentence. Do you mean the future war against Iran or what?

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There was a mistake in the sentence, meant to say nuclear weapons not wars.

1) Iran do in fact strive to get its own nukes. Who doesn't these days. What's wrong with it?
Only 6 countries are officially 'allowed' to have them, still India, Pakistan and Israel have them too.
South African Republic is also rumored to have them. Who's to decide which country is 'developed enough' and which is not? Who gave this right to judge to these 'developed' countries? Besides all the attempts to keep the lid of the nuclear box closed is absolutely futile. Sooner or later other countries will get the nukes of their own. You can't stop this tide.
2) Israel feels that Iran threatens them so sooner or later it will get ballsy enough to attack. With or without help from USA. US apparently wants to stay out of it, but Israel pushes it into this war.
Strangely enough Saudi Arabia and Qatar also want this war to happen so I think that it's inevitable now.
I only hope Iran would have enough means to defend itself (probably with the help of Russia and China).

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2) Israel feels that Iran threatens them so sooner or later it will get ballsy enough to attack. With or without help from USA. US apparently wants to stay out of it, but Israel pushes it into this war.

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Many Americans are fed up with so much support for Israel. I have to admit that I am torn on this issue. Israel's position in the middle east is precarious - yet now Israel stomps around and carries a big stick, and persecutes the Palestinians cruelly, and with too much confidence, too content that the US will jump in and come to the rescue if Israel gets itself into trouble. In some ways, I feel like Israel is a skinny little kid, pretending to be a schoolyard bully, because he is friends with a REAL bully (the US) but takes that friendship for granted.

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Originally Posted by Deborski

Many Americans are fed up with so much support for Israel. I have to admit that I am torn on this issue. Israel's position in the middle east is precarious - yet now Israel stomps around and carries a big stick, and persecutes the Palestinians cruelly, and with too much confidence, too content that the US will jump in and come to the rescue if Israel gets itself into trouble. In some ways, I feel like Israel is a skinny little kid, pretending to be a schoolyard bully, because he is friends with a REAL bully (the US) but takes that friendship for granted.

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It's amazing what a bit of schoolyard experience can do for ones understanding of international politics!!
Funny!

I think this question is easier to relate to if we keep Israel out of the picture. The Iranians are not even Arabs, they don't actually like Arabs. Would they really attack Israel because it mistreats a million or so Arabs in the occupied territories?

Perhaps it's a bit like the Cold War - useful to endlessly talk about and scare people with.. But everyone knows that nobody will actually dare to attack the other. That's how I looke at Iran's rhetoric against Israel...

I honestly don't care if Iran gets nukes. Israel already has them, so it's not a threat to Israel. It would just create the same balance as in the Cold war. Iran has no other serious enemies within missile distance,

There are absolute TONS of Iranians in Europe already. With a war, there would be millions more legitimate refugees that would be guaranteed refugee status.

"I honestly don't care if Iran gets nukes. Israel already has them, so it's not a threat to Israel. It would just create the same balance as in the Cold war. Iran has no other serious enemies within missile distance"

How is Iran getting nukes not a threat to Israel because Israel too has them? You're relying on the fact that nuclear weapons weren't used during the Cold War to mean no one will ever use nuclear weapons against another country with nuclear weapons? That's a very scary assumption. Are you aware that nuclear war was a very real threat at times during the Cold War? Do you think the USSR moved nuclear weapons to Cuba just to piss the US off?

I really cannot grasp the demonization of Israel that is so common. They go to astonishing lengths to do as little harm as possible while still protecting their very threatened state. How many times does Israel have to accept the two-state solution and Palestine reject it, choosing conflict over peace, before we sympathize with Israel for once? I don't see how hating and wishing the death to all Jews and acting on these wishes can be seen as positive. It's ignorant, militant and disgusting behavior. Clearly not all Palestinians hold these views, but the ones in power support terrorism and destruction. It's hard to be on that side.

Anyway, a holocaust survivor once said "“When someone says they are going to kill you, believe them.” When a nation, very clearly producing nuclear weapons (I think you should look into that more because it's painfully obvious), has been saying for decades that its goal is to wipe Israel off the face of the planet, said not only by the President, but the Ayatollah, as well, which has already committed disgusting acts against its own people, there is reason to be concerned. Do you really expect Israel to not be very worried?

And to say that we should just let Iran be and the Iranian people fix their situation if they want is silly. Is it so simple to overthrow a dictatorship? Even if a majority of people there truly want tyranny, does that mean the minority should just be subjected to it?

I think you are wildly oversimplifying the situation. Would you say fixedly that all preemptive strikes are wrong? Would it not have been right for us to stop Hitler before he could kill millions? The "wait until something catastrophic happens" plan does not seem to make much sense.

Iranian scientist involved in nuclear program killed in Tehran bomb attack - The Washington Post

There were several cases already. What's that? A 'defensive measure'? I call that terrorism. The same terrorism Israel is supposed to be fighting with.

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Originally Posted by kybarry

"I honestly don't care if Iran gets nukes. Israel already has them, so it's not a threat to Israel. It would just create the same balance as in the Cold war. Iran has no other serious enemies within missile distance"

How is Iran getting nukes not a threat to Israel because Israel too has them? You're relying on the fact that nuclear weapons weren't used during the Cold War to mean no one will ever use nuclear weapons against another country with nuclear weapons? That's a very scary assumption. Are you aware that nuclear war was a very real threat at times during the Cold War? Do you think the USSR moved nuclear weapons to Cuba just to piss the US off?

I really cannot grasp the demonization of Israel that is so common. They go to astonishing lengths to do as little harm as possible while still protecting their very threatened state. How many times does Israel have to accept the two-state solution and Palestine reject it, choosing conflict over peace, before we sympathize with Israel for once? I don't see how hating and wishing the death to all Jews and acting on these wishes can be seen as positive. It's ignorant, militant and disgusting behavior. Clearly not all Palestinians hold these views, but the ones in power support terrorism and destruction. It's hard to be on that side.

Anyway, a holocaust survivor once said "“When someone says they are going to kill you, believe them.” When a nation, very clearly producing nuclear weapons (I think you should look into that more because it's painfully obvious), has been saying for decades that its goal is to wipe Israel off the face of the planet, said not only by the President, but the Ayatollah, as well, which has already committed disgusting acts against its own people, there is reason to be concerned. Do you really expect Israel to not be very worried?

And to say that we should just let Iran be and the Iranian people fix their situation if they want is silly. Is it so simple to overthrow a dictatorship? Even if a majority of people there truly want tyranny, does that mean the minority should just be subjected to it?

I think you are wildly oversimplifying the situation. Would you say fixedly that all preemptive strikes are wrong? Would it not have been right for us to stop Hitler before he could kill millions? The "wait until something catastrophic happens" plan does not seem to make much sense.

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It is so stupid, brain-washed and has nothing common with the real politics.

Just want to clarify that I support Israel's right to exist. I am not attempting to "demonize" it, and I am quite forgiving of some really questionable practices of Israel, precisely because I know that it has been necessary for Israel to be really tough in order to ensure its' survival. I really wish the moslems would back off and realise that this is a tiny piece of land and help the Palestinians to accept the situation and rebuild there lives, rather than spur them on in a struggle that has done them no good for the last 50 years.

Somewhere you've got to draw the line though. I don't support Israel engaging in pure terrrorist practices, killing off people in foreign countries - quite common habit of Israel, and the Israelis are more adept at it even than the UK, US and Russia it seems!

Also, the fact that I support Israel's right to exist does not mean that I reject the right of Iran to exist as a sovereign state. I don't much like the government there, but it was put in place by a popular revolution and at least half the population supports it. The majority would no doubt oppose an invasion by Western countries.

All of us remember the bullshit about Iraqi weapons of mass destruction supposedly being a threat to Europe.
Are we going to fall for the same tired story again - they have hardly bothered to even change it.. ("served its purposes so well last time..."). Iraq and its oil is now in the hands of those that wanted it. And Iran is so obviously next on the roadmap.
And we wonder why middle easterners turn to radical religion and come after us.. It's like slapping a person in the face 10 times and then getting really surprised and pissed off when he sneaks up on you and does the same thing to you. We have killed a million more people in the "war against terror" than were ever killed by moslem terrorists in America or Europe.

Iran is much harder nut to crack than Iraq or Afghanistan
It has better army and can fight back

Also Mossad I'd say is the most successful security organization and it's the only government based security organization which targets people as a nation security not land as a nation security. They don't care about borders and they know that the most successful way to reach the goal is to use all available methods, including terroristic attacks

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Originally Posted by Marcus

It is so stupid, brain-washed and has nothing common with the real politics.

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Could you please stop getting personal and please keep your crippling negativities in check?

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Could you please stop getting personal and please keep your crippling negativities in check?

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I'll try to. Although it's not easy when I see such a comment.

Russia Today has a very good story about the Iran situation.
Iran cuts off oil supplies to Britain, France — RT

(Gosh - that is one really useful news channel for English speaking people, for sure - and I don't particularly mean the coverage of Russian affairs but their international stories. I particularly love Max Keiser, a sort of mad latter-day American financial prophet. )

While Russia Today gives a nuanced and well-informed analysis about what's going on, all we read in Western European papers is how undemocratic, evil and unpopular Ahmedinejad is, and how Iran is such a big threat to Europe (silly).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=99uDP...feature=relmfu

God I hope we do not go to war....... I hope enough Americans agree with me to prevent it from happening :(((

Scary stuff: Mhttp://www.facebook.com/l.php?u=http...on&h=6AQEz5Ths

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"The White House wants to see sanctions work. This is not the Bush White House. It does not need another conflict," said an official knowledgeable on Middle East policy. "Its problem is that the guys in Tehran are behaving like sanctions don't matter, like their economy isn't collapsing, like Israel isn't going to do anything.

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Anyway, my hope is that we will not not invade Iran, but wait until insurgents rebel and maybe support them...

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It is so stupid, brain-washed and has nothing common with the real politics.

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An enlightened and brilliant retort. Very convincing. Everything I said is now null and void.

For others, I didn't mean to sound so aggressive and apologize if it was unnecessarily biting. Certain things just frustrate me. I won't argue on the entire Israeli-Palestinian conflict because it's too much to handle. I simply want to point out that a) I think it's clear Iran is trying to build nuclear weapons and b) Israel should be worried. These seem to be conceivable points to debate and get somewhere with.

So you can get an idea of how many Americans are truly opposed to this war, this is a screenshot of an anti-war message posted on Facebook today. Within just a few hours it was been shared over 1,000 times (I personally shared it with 14,000 people). WE DO NOT WANT WAR!

Attachment 316

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Originally Posted by kybarry

a) I think it's clear Iran is trying to build nuclear weapons

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Yes, so what?

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Originally Posted by kybarry

and b) Israel should be worried.

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Yes. Should one worry if his neighbor's just bought a gun? Especially if that neighbor told you that he would shoot you? Perhaps. But does it mean that you should bomb his house some night?

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Yes. Should one worry if his neighbor's just bought a gun? Especially if that neighbor told you that he would shoot you? Perhaps. But does it mean that you should bomb his house some night?

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In America, we can just trot down to the gun store and buy whatever we need. All of our neighbors have guns. Which may help to explain why Americans do not easily trust each other, and often do not even speak to their neighbors or know their names.

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But does it mean that you should bomb his house some night?

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Offense is the best defense. :razz:
Anyway - Israel, unlike Iran, can be completely destroyed with just 1-2 nukes - just drop them on Tel-Aviv and Israel is no more.

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Yes. Should one worry if his neighbor's just bought a gun? Especially if that neighbor told you that he would shoot you? Perhaps. But does it mean that you should bomb his house some night?

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Well we're not talking about one man with a gun. We're talking about the potential for nuclear war. So yes, if the danger is nuclear war, I would say bombing his house would be justified. Wouldn't you?

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In America, we can just trot down to the gun store and buy whatever we need. All of our neighbors have guns. Which may help to explain why Americans do not easily trust each other, and often do not even speak to their neighbors or know their names.

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Not sure if you're being sarcastic here. Perhaps where you live it is more common to own a gun, but I literally don't know a single person whom I know well that owns a gun.

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Originally Posted by Deborski

In America, we can just trot down to the gun store and buy whatever we need. All of our neighbors have guns. Which may help to explain why Americans do not easily trust each other, and often do not even speak to their neighbors or know their names.

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Wouldn't you at least need some kind of permit or show your ID if you want to buy a weapon?
And what's the most dangerous weapon that you could buy in your local gun store?

I was being a little sarcastic there. But guns are very available and not hard to buy. And in some states there are new laws to allow people to openly carry guns in taverns, universities, libraries. It all seems crazy to me.

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Originally Posted by nulle

Offense is the best defense. :razz:
Anyway - Israel, unlike Iran, can be completely destroyed with just 1-2 nukes - just drop them on Tel-Aviv and Israel is no more.

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Amen. :lol:

I put a smiley there, but if that's what the Israeli government thinks of the situation I'll be ready to replace it with a flat face :neutral:

Ramil, why do you hate Israel?

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Originally Posted by kybarry

Well we're not talking about one man with a gun. We're talking about the potential for nuclear war. So yes, if the danger is nuclear war, I would say bombing his house would be justified. Wouldn't you?

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Are you absolutely sure that with 1 air raid Israel will succeed in destroying the whole nuclear infrastructure of Iran? With that raid Israel will turn a possibility of war into certainity and greatly increase the possibility of nuclear explosions on its own territory.

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Originally Posted by Hanna

Ramil, why do you hate Israel?

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I don't hate it. Really, I don't. But if Israeli generals think they can bomb other country just to be on the safe side then Israel deserves all of the above.
Nuclear weapons discipline governments, not make them rash.

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I don't hate it. Really, I don't. But if Israeli generals think they can bomb other country just to be on the safe side then Israel deserves all of the above.
Nuclear weapons discipline governments, not make them rash.

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No one is saying there is an easy solution, but would you just have them accept their destruction instead? And Iran's government is already rash.

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Originally Posted by kybarry

No one is saying there is an easy solution, but would you just have them accept their destruction instead? And Iran's government is already rash.

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Not really. What rash things Iranian government did lately? I'm not speaking of words, I'm speaking of deeds?
It's easier to see maniacs lusting for blood, but they aren't really. They're just politics. Remember Nikita Khrushev and his famous speech at the UN council. Was he a maniac?

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Remember Nikita Khrushev and his famous speech at the UN council. Was he a maniac?

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Of course...

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I put a smiley there, but if that's what the Israeli government thinks of the situation I'll be ready to replace it with a flat face

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I don't know what they think - but they really cannot risk by being hit first.

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Originally Posted by nulle

Of course...

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Oh well, I sometimes forget why you visit this forum.