It's not at all a problem that you are wrong sometimes. Let me tell you a secret - most people are wrong most of the time in the majority of things. The biggest issue is that you seem like not letting your assumptions go whenever you face a contradiction.
I strongly suggest you'd give it up. I'm pretty sure Umarov himself is not 100% sure most of the time where he's coming from. And you don't seem to be a professional psychologist.
It is, especially since you have no reliable information to form your opinion. And due to the lack of information, you seem to grant Umarov with the properties and features of the "collective freedom fighter/rebel character". And that, of course, makes you draw irresponsible conclusions. (Off topic: I had a friend who was very popular with women, while not being that handsome. Once he shared with me his secret - he tried not to say anything when you're dating, this way you let the woman grant you with the features that she likes and wants to find in the man. So, he was always saying something vague, short, and indisputable. That worked.)