Quote Originally Posted by it-ogo View Post
Nukes are very expensive and dangerous for the owner. The main reason to join the nuclear club is to protect oneself from the intrusion of a superpower. So the aggressive politics of USA (and NATO) is the main reason of the nukes' spread over the world nowadays. BTW you can surely remove North Korea from the "roadmap", cause it is already in club. Actually, USA provides help to North Korea each year. So, either a typical NATO high-level strategic planner have a problem with strategic planning or he takes NATO aggressiveness as something uncontrolled and tries only to reduce the consequences (mainly unsuccessfully).

No?
Nice.

"The main reason to join the nuclear club is to protect oneself from the intrusion of a superpower."

Not really. Say, Iran produced 20 nuclear warheads. How could Iran protect itself from the intrusion of Russia or the US? The superpower is not only the possession of the nuclear warheads, but more importantly the ability to destroy the enemy's warheads. If Russia ever wants to invade Iran, the first thing it should plan is to destroy Iran's nuclear silos and destroy the runways that would prevent the nuclear-carrying aircraft from being launched. That should be done just hours BEFORE the first main blow to the enemy's bases. That is a task for the special forces in coordination with the other army units. That's why the USSR needed so many of the special forces. So, when Iran produces 2,000 warheads with a variety of ways to deliver them, the adequate amount of special forces and all the necessary support infrastructure, the intelligence services to figure out what's going on, and many more things, ONLY THEN Iran could say: "Phew, a superpower will not attack me anymore. I'm safe now. But, hey I'm a superpower now myself. Cool!"

In reality, what a country like Iran might do with 5 nuclear warheads of the low quality? With a sane government, to threaten the countries nearby, e.g. Israel, adding more political power. With an insane government, it might be Allah Akbar. In either case Israel would want to strike first because it probably would not want to be held hostage to the power games of the others and that would be a legitimate cause for the war in that case. Meaning, if Iran is 'allowed' to produce a warhead, even one, that would almost inevitably cause the war in the region with millions of civil casualties. The situation in the North Korea, in my opinion, is different by that the South Korea is much more chicken than Israel and they want the NATO doing all the work for them. And NATO isn't really afraid of the NK's nuclear weapons (see above why), so they just hold it on the back burner since they can't afford one more war, both politically and financially. (As a side note, isn't it interesting that since the 1991 the NATO engaged in the wars it doesn't need at all, but now due to that the reputation of NATO is completely ruined internationally? Anyways, that's a totally different topic...)