Thread: Is default of Ukraine inevitable?

Originally Posted by hddscan

I currently think that Novorossia is a dead-born child.

Only until default. And it can rise from the dead like phoenix thereafter. It may sound attractive for some Russian speaking Ukrainians from southern regions like Odessa to set up a new state from scratch without debts but with cheap gas and other perks.

Originally Posted by diogen_

Only until default. And it can rise from the dead like phoenix thereafter. It may sound attractive for some Russian speaking Ukrainians from southern regions like Odessa to set up a new state from scratch without debts but with cheap gas and other perks.

hmm, interesting idea. Didn't think of that.

Originally Posted by diogen_

Only until default. And it can rise from the dead like phoenix thereafter. It may sound attractive for some Russian speaking Ukrainians from southern regions like Odessa to set up a new state from scratch without debts but with cheap gas and other perks.

What perks? How would 'Novorossia' "rise up" and especially without economic/financial help from Moscow which is going to be less and less, probably?

Both territories in Ukraine are in trouble. I don't think the EU nor the USA want Ukraine to default. They don't want a total re-structuring of the economy or the system unless it's patterned off of the EU. The IMF has even given Russia loans in the past. The IMF and EU have thrown bad money at economies and I don't see Ukraine being much different. How that comes to be, though, I would not speculate. But, I would guess that they (USA et al.) would not want Ukraine to default or go 'officially' bankrupt without getting some sort of loan first. Some of the citizens can be volatile so if the new administration defaults and they have even 'less' services available...

This is just speculation, though. What scenario do you foresee with a default?

Originally Posted by 14Russian

How would 'Novorossia' "rise up" and especially without economic/financial help from Moscow which is going to be less and less, probably?

Geopolitics is much more important for Putin than economy. So, hypothetic new-fledged Novorossia would get tons of help from Russia no matter what. It’s as sure as Strelkov’s gun.))

What perks?

Everything vital for their survival that Novorossia won’t be able to afford because any import would be way too problematic, so to speak. Fuel for nuclear power plants, for example.

Both territories in Ukraine are in trouble. I don't think the EU nor the USA want Ukraine to default. They don't want a total re-structuring of the economy or the system unless it's patterned off of the EU. The IMF has even given Russia loans in the past. The IMF and EU have thrown bad money at economies and I don't see Ukraine being much different. How that comes to be, though, I would not speculate. But, I would guess that they (USA et al.) would not want Ukraine to default or go 'officially' bankrupt without getting some sort of loan first. Some of the citizens can be volatile so if the new administration defaults and they have even 'less' services available...

The current “price tag” is about 32 billion USD.
Украине грозит дефолт в этом году - Financial Times - Korrespondent.net

This is just speculation, though. What scenario do you foresee with a default?

ATM, I expect from the “junta” to deflect attention of the population from looming default with a renewal of so-called anti-terrorist operation (I mean the situation when they are sure they wouldn’t get enough refunding from IMF or whoever). Otherwise, they are doomed to stepping down and fleeing to where Saakashvily currently resides. They are literally between the devil and the deep blue sea.

Some civil unrest ensues...

Originally Posted by diogen_

Geopolitics is much more important for Putin than economy. So, hypothetic new-fledged Novorossia would get tons of help from Russia no matter what. It’s as sure as Strelkov’s gun.))

Of course, just the way his Soviet predecessors did in the Eastern Europe area. The problem was, the money went to their lobbyists rather than actual people there. This time it's a bit more complicated, but as soon as every eastern Ukrainian realizes the language they speak is only secondary (at best) when it comes to their national identity, another geopolitical trick will result in another big piece of losses.

Originally Posted by diogen_

ATM, I expect from the “junta” to deflect attention of the population from looming default with a renewal of so-called anti-terrorist operation (I mean the situation when they are sure they wouldn’t get enough refunding from IMF or whoever). Otherwise, they are doomed to stepping down and fleeing to where Saakashvily currently resides. They are literally between the devil and the deep blue sea.

Some civil unrest ensues...

"Deflecting the attention of the population" tricks are going to be extremely useful for a certain else "wise" government, whose geopolitical games have caused the country's entire economy to be running down at the speed of light. I'm really curious what they come up with.

Originally Posted by Eric C.

This time it's a bit more complicated, but as soon as every eastern Ukrainian realizes the language they speak is only secondary (at best) when it comes to their national identity, another geopolitical trick will result in another big piece of losses.

I sense that there is an assumption here that Ukrainian national identity is somehow under threat if Ukraine would lean to Russia.
Should I remind you that the very Ukrainian identity is currently under much bigger threat. First of all the Euromaidan had a goal to actually abandon Ukraine as independent country and move to Europe, hence the name. Second: radical ultra nationalism that is currently present in Ukraine might turn a word "Ukrainian" to "Nazi" or something similar, this was, for example used by the Western people when they called and some still do, Soviet(and now Russian) people as Reds, Commies etc., so even in Russia there is, currently, a lot of negativism toward anything Soviet, so 70 year of national identity is lost and patriotism was not popular for a long time.

Originally Posted by hddscan

I sense that there is an assumption here that Ukrainian national identity is somehow under threat if Ukraine would lean to Russia.
Should I remind you that the very Ukrainian identity is currently under much bigger threat. First of all the Euromaidan had a goal to actually abandon Ukraine as independent country and move to Europe, hence the name. Second: radical ultra nationalism that is currently present in Ukraine might turn a word "Ukrainian" to "Nazi" or something similar, this was, for example used by the Western people when they called and some still do, Soviet(and now Russian) people as Reds, Commies etc., so even in Russia there is, currently, a lot of negativism toward anything Soviet, so 70 year of national identity is lost and patriotism was not popular for a long time.

It could be that way, if everyone in the world considered their national pride "radical ultra nationalism", but we both know it's not the case, and also who does think so, and who doesn't.

Originally Posted by Eric C.

It could be that way, if everyone in the world considered their national pride "radical ultra nationalism", but we both know it's not the case, and also who does think so, and who doesn't.

Actually that is not true, not everyone need to think like that
And example with "Commies" confirms that

Originally Posted by Eric C.

Of course, just the way his Soviet predecessors did in the Eastern Europe area. The problem was, the money went to their lobbyists rather than actual people there.

Do you believe western money did go to “actual people” and has not been wasted on senseless military buildup and bloody "anti-terrorist operation" since the coup? Also, in what way standard state “usury” is better than “geopolitical lobbyism” for these "actual people"?

This time it's a bit more complicated, but as soon as every eastern Ukrainian realizes the language they speak is only secondary (at best) when it comes to their national identity, another geopolitical trick will result in another big piece of losses.

Sorry. Your language is really too vague to comprehend. What is “primary” to their identity, what “ geopolitical trick” do you mean, what “losses” they will have to endure, and how it all may occur. Could you please elaborate your possible scenario in more detail. I don’t believe I follow your ideas as you originally produced them without adulterations of my personal “confabulations”.

"Deflecting the attention of the population" tricks are going to be extremely useful for a certain else "wise" government, whose geopolitical games have caused the country's entire economy to be running down at the speed of light. I'm really curious what they come up with.

Once again, please share your thoughts on what "they” may come up with “us”. One or two ideas on what is going to happen and when it all may come around. I'm just curious what to expect.

Originally Posted by diogen_

Do you believe western money did go to “actual people” and has not been wasted on senseless military buildup and bloody "anti-terrorist operation" since the coup? Also, in what way standard state “usury” is better than “geopolitical lobbyism” for these "actual people"?

First, I don't believe the fairy tales saying the anti-Yanukovich uprising was arranged from the outside at all. Then, the country did receive certain help from the U.S. & EU, that's true, and some of that help did go for military purposes, but hey, it's been real insignificant so far (around a couple of billions in total) - Greece alone easily ate up 2 tranches of 100 billion Euros of European money, remember? =)) And moreover, the country now really has to recover their military infrastracture that had been deliberately taken down by Yanukovich's government. So it's not the same as sponsoring a group of terrorists in the eastern area.

Originally Posted by diogen_

Sorry. Your language is really too vague to comprehend. What is “primary” to their identity, what “ geopolitical trick” do you mean, what “losses” they will have to endure, and how it all may occur. Could you please elaborate your possible scenario in more detail. I don’t believe I follow your ideas as you originally produced them without adulterations of my personal “confabulations”.

That's simple. They're first of all Ukrainians, that's their national identity, and the fact they can speak Russian doesn't make them Russians. Once they all have realized that, there will be no need in the counter-terrorist operation, all the lands will be cleaned up by the locals. And who's going to endure losses will be whoever is investing in the separatism in the area now.

Originally Posted by diogen_

Once again, please share your thoughts on what "they” may come up with “us”. One or two ideas on what is going to happen and when it all may come around. I'm just curious what to expect.

I have no idea myself what they may come up with so far. But they'll have to, that's for sure. In case you don't understand who "they" are - just look around. Go to a nearby bank/exchange office. Make it to a store like H&M, Levi's, Apple Store, IKEA. Look at the price tags. See anything unusual? Well, "they" may have to start coming up with something as the pricing trends reach food&convenience stores. But no idea when that's gonna happen.

Originally Posted by Eric C.

First, I don't believe the fairy tales saying the anti-Yanukovich uprising was arranged from the outside at all. Then, the country did receive certain help from the U.S. & EU, that's true, and some of that help did go for military purposes, but hey, it's been real insignificant so far (around a couple of billions in total) - Greece alone easily ate up 2 tranches of 100 billion Euros of European money, remember? =)) And moreover, the country now really has to recover their military infrastracture that had been deliberately taken down by Yanukovich's government. So it's not the same as sponsoring a group of terrorists in the eastern area.

"military infrastracture that had been deliberately taken down by Yanukovich's government" - Свечку держал?
Could there be a protest for the calling those people as "terrorists"?

That's simple. They're first of all Ukrainians, that's their national identity, and the fact they can speak Russian doesn't make them Russians. Once they all have realized that, there will be no need in the counter-terrorist operation, all the lands will be cleaned up by the locals. And who's going to endure losses will be whoever is investing in the separatism in the area now.

How should people realize their identities, by shelling bombs or by refeferendums?

I have no idea myself what they may come up with so far. But they'll have to, that's for sure. In case you don't understand who "they" are - just look around. Go to a nearby bank/exchange office. Make it to a store like H&M, Levi's, Apple Store, IKEA. Look at the price tags. See anything unusual? Well, "they" may have to start coming up with something as the pricing trends reach food&convenience stores. But no idea when that's gonna happen.

Can't that "coming up" rekindle Russian economics?

Originally Posted by Eric C.

So it's not the same as sponsoring a group of terrorists in the eastern area.

Based on what you said, is your position on the military presence in the Eastern Ukraine that Russian military is not involved in the conflict? To the best of my knowledge, "a group of terrorists" is not the way the official Ukrainian mass-media refers to. Indeed, if those are just "a group of terrorists", you probably don't need that much of the heavy weaponry that the Ukrainian army is so keen of acquiring and utilizing.

So, I'm also inclined to think that very few of the money sent to Ukraine will meet the local people - mostly, the money would be spent on extending and re-enforcing the military, some of it would go to the oligarchs in the form of the government contracts, and the rest will end up in the pockets of the local corrupted officials.

Originally Posted by diogen_

Geopolitics is much more important for Putin than economy. So, hypothetic new-fledged Novorossia would get tons of help from Russia no matter what. It’s as sure as Strelkov’s gun.))

Except, that you contradict yourself or is this a paradox? Economy is not important? So, with Russia's economy in the toilet, how will they prop up Novorossia? Is there some reason why Russia's economy will improve any time soon?
At some point, they will have to abandon financing Novorossia.

The current “price tag” is about 32 billion USD.
Украине грозит дефолт в этом году - Financial Times - Korrespondent.net

ATM, I expect from the “junta” to deflect attention of the population from looming default with a renewal of so-called anti-terrorist operation (I mean the situation when they are sure they wouldn’t get enough refunding from IMF or whoever). Otherwise, they are doomed to stepping down and fleeing to where Saakashvily currently resides. They are literally between the devil and the deep blue sea.
Some civil unrest ensues...

They need 17 or 32 or....the figure is high. I think the increased funding of the military is incredibly insane. Whey they cannot even afford (normally) to fund essential services, they need every last cent to rebuild and strengthen the country, economically. But, I am against that regime (probably, for different reasons than many Russians here) and nothing they do surprises me. I expect Ukrainians to object to their policies eventually but I probably perceive things differently. But, I don't think Ukraine's and Russia's problems are drastically different. Russia has oil but with the prices dropping and now the sanctions, Russia, will have their own economic problems.

The IMF loan, will eventually arrive, although under what conditions and when, who knows. I'd be surprised if that never comes to fruition. They just argue and negotiate what seems like forever until the Government concedes and follow the demanded conditions. The media then spins it and makes it sound like it is just in the nick of time before default/official bankruptcy.

Originally Posted by 14Russian

Except, that you contradict yourself or is this a paradox? Economy is not important? So, with Russia's economy in the toilet, how will they prop up Novorossia? Is there some reason why Russia's economy will improve any time soon?
At some point, they will have to abandon financing Novorossia.

Economy is important but some projects can be delayed for a while because of Novorossia (in case it is regarded as of higher priority). Putin still can easily afford to spend 10-20 billion USD on Novorossia without too much compunction this year if he wishes.

Is there some reason why Russia's economy will improve any time soon?

It depends on many things. Oil prices is the major factor, as you probably now. As far as sanctions concern, any country can survive without foreign borrowing altogether and Russia is not an exception. Progress may be not so fast but still we can live through. Anyways, even Illarionov believes we may have industrial growth soon.))

– Меня изумляют такого рода разговоры и ожидания: дескать, Россия вот-вот рухнет, у нее нет экономики, только нефть и газ. Это глубокое заблуждение, совершенно неадекватное восприятие реального состояния дел. Мировые цены на нефть могут упасть и до 20 долларов за баррель, такое уже бывало, но у РФ сохраняются приличные золотовалютные резервы, российская экономика состоит не только из нефтянки и газодобычи. Более того, в последние три месяца в промышленности началось оживление, причем с каждым месяцем темпы его возрастают. В 2015 году в России может быть даже небольшой экономический рост.

Илларионов: Дефолт Украины практически неизбежен. Он наступит в конце января, максимум в феврале 2015 года / Гордон

They need 17 or 32 or....the figure is high. I think the increased funding of the military is incredibly insane. Whey they cannot even afford (normally) to fund essential services, they need every last cent to rebuild and strengthen the country, economically.

They will have to abandon Donbas in order to reduce military expenditures. Such a decision is the inevitable political suicide for the government, in so far as the majority of population is pretty bellicose . They are trapped.